Urban Vs. Suburban

[Richard at Remax]

Well I just turned 30 and got married last year. Lived in Edgemere for 6 years and loved every minute of it. Well my priorites have changed since getting eloped. Moved to SW Edmond into much bigger house with big yard and a pool, closer to schools that we plan on sending kids too. Yet I still enjoy going to the city center just live farther away and I have no problem with that. Someone young will take my spot and the cycle will continue. However just by looking at it the inflow is starting to become more than the outflow so no one should really be alarmed.

[Just the facts]

Do we even have reliable data that shows us that? Given that the oldest millennials are just now approaching 30, and the fact most data we have was likely compiled on the coasts and big cities where people marry and have children later, I don't think we can say for sure yet that their affection for urban living will continue into their child-rearing years.

What more data do you need the John Rex Elementary?

[adaniel]

Do we even have reliable data that shows us that? Given that the oldest millennials are just now approaching 30, and the fact most data we have was likely compiled on the coasts and big cities where people marry and have children later, I don't think we can say for sure yet that their affection for urban living will continue into their child-rearing years.

I would say that yes the data points are there. I'm going to do my best Just the facts impersonation now LOL

Living in the city was a lifestyle preference for the longest but given certain economic and demographic shifts it is increasingly a "pocketbook" decision for a lot of people, myself included.

You are right people are waiting later to have children if at all. Whether thats a good thing is certainly up for debate but nowadays 67% of households in this nation are childless, so living in a place with top schools and paying the high property taxes that come with that is a nonfactor for a lot of people.

Don't forget the soaring cost of commuting. Gas isn't getting any cheaper and a new car averages well over 30K nowadays. Add to that the increasing likelihood of more toll roads and it's simply not feasible to live so far out. The number of miles driven per person in the US has stayed flat for about 7 years.

Last time I checked the homeowner rate for millenials is 28%, which is well lower than Baby Boomers and Gen X at this same point. Home ownership is losing its appeal across all age groups and with a national debt of $16 trillion, the mortgage interest tax deduction is living on borrowed time. Much like the decline in birth rates we can argue if this is a good thing for society but it is what it is. The rampant NIMBYism in suburbs means rentals are far more accessible in the city.

FWIW OKC is one of the places where the urban center is growing faster than the suburbs. While its true OKC is nowhere near as dense as most other large cities, the higher growth rate is a reversal from even last decade. It also looks like Oklahoma County is capturing the majority of the metro's growth, which is also a reversal. So even here where real estate is cheap and commutes are compartively short I think people are really thinking about where they want to live.

I try to look at things through a utalitarian perspective. Suburbs themselves grew out of a growing middle class, cheap fuel, easily accessible mortgages and tax incentives, and better schools. At this point, the first three of those are under serious pressure. So people have adjusted accordingly.

I never want to disparage anyone for chosing a certain lifestyle over another. This is the USA and you have that freedom...most high quality suburbs, the Edmonds and Normans of the world, aren't going anywhere. At the same time, I have a problem with people who rear back in their seat arrogantly and say "those urban hipsters will be back here in the burbs...they always come back." These people fail to realize just how much the world has changed and if they fail to adjust to it, they only have themselves to blame.

[LakeEffect]

Millennials who want to live in vibrant, walkable neighborhoods in their twenties will likely be looking at suburbia once they get married and have children. I expect to see a significant suburban housing boom as todays twentysomethings get into their thirties. Why? Regardless of how much this generation would enjoy to live without a car, good schools will come first.

I'm a married Millennial with a child that is specifically looking to avoid the suburbs. That's why we live in Lincoln Terrace.

[AP]

I'm a married Millennial with a child that is specifically looking to avoid the suburbs. That's why we live in Lincoln Terrace.

Don't give him examples. He has a narrative in his head that no matter what evidence you give him that shows the opposite, he'll still cling to the narrative. Almost every subject is the same too. Retail, bars, music, restaurants, lifestyle choices of millennials. He knows the truth no matter the evidence that someone else produces.

[bchris02]

Don't give him examples. He has a narrative in his head that no matter what evidence you give him that shows the opposite, he'll still cling to the narrative. Almost every subject is the same too. Retail, bars, music, restaurants, lifestyle choices of millennials. He knows the truth no matter the evidence that someone else produces.

My narrative is no more or less true than the narratives of many other posters on this site. Somebody passionately promoting new urbanism will spin the data to support their agenda. Likewise to somebody passionately promoting suburbia. I take a look at the facts on both sides of the issue and accept them for what they are. Yes, urban living is in the upswing but suburbia is in no danger of dying. Millennials are not abandoning their cars en masse. The future is one of choice. In the past, one either had to live in and embrace suburbia or move to a major city. We are headed into an era where even in small cities like OKC, Jacksonville, etc people will be able to live an urban life if that's what they desire.

[Jeepnokc]

I never want to disparage anyone for chosing a certain lifestyle over another. This is the USA and you have that freedom...most high quality suburbs, the Edmonds and Normans of the world, aren't going anywhere. At the same time, I have a problem with people who rear back in their seat arrogantly and say "those urban hipsters will be back here in the burbs...they always come back." These people fail to realize just how much the world has changed and if they fail to adjust to it, they only have themselves to blame.

I don't necessarily disagree with you that lifestyles trends are changing but I also think back to my twenties when I thought I would never be like my father. As I grow older and priorities and different realities that were not there in my twenties come into play, what I want adapts to the next level. I will be curious what the trends show over the next ten years.

Another interesting aspect is people moving back downtown for the schools...not because they wanted to live downtown. My old neighbors in Heritage Hills East moved there from Norman because they wanted to get their kids into the Classen School of Arts. They liked Norman but moved strictly for the school.

[Jersey Boss]

I think the more interesting thing is that China has 3 times as many people and significantly less car travel.

Not really that interesting or even surprising. In 2009 the rate of ownership of mv's in this country was 828/1000 inhabitants. In China the rate was 58/1000 which is well below developed countries. 2009 was the latest I could find numbers for.

[AP]

Not really that interesting or even surprising. In 2009 the rate of ownership of mv's in this country was 828/1000 inhabitants. In China the rate was 58/1000 which is well below developed countries. 2009 was the latest I could find numbers for.

My point was, I think the chart is an attempt by the poster to say 'hey, look. we're not the only ones in the world who drive this much.' But we are.

[Plutonic Panda]

I think the more interesting thing is that China has 3 times as many people and significantly less car travel.

Jeeze..... can't think to why that is

When you have a country that is 1.4 billion vs. a country that has 320 million, they are likely going to outrank you as to how many do what on nearly every scale.

[Plutonic Panda]

That chart is also in billion passenger kilometers - kilometers being the operative measurement there.

Yes, the standard measuring system of the world. Quite a bit of their other post when comparing international countries use metric even when posting articles that favor urbanism over suburban, so no bias there.

I also wonder what the chart would look like if car AND bus were not in the same category. You know whomever made that chart combined those two modes of transportation into the same category on purpose, because the raw data would have been collected separately. Wonder why they combined them.

Not sure. I'll dig around and see if I can't find a chart that separates bus from car but is similar to this one. Not sure why they lumped it in, but I highly doubt it to purposely skew data. There is so much more data that favors suburbs over urban cores there is no reason to attempt to skew something this minor.

[Plutonic Panda]

Interesting how USAToday took the same information and ran it under the headline "Decade of the City."

Of course the truth is always somewhere in between. I do find the title of the WSJ article highly deceptive. They buried these little nuggets in their story.

You can find tons of different little bits that contradict other pieces. It goes both ways man.

Population growth for MSA vs. city core

[Plutonic Panda]

I wouldn't bet on it because the data trends aren't showing that.

I would bet on it. I see it every day. I know about 15 different people who ditched urban living for a better suburban lifestyle. Our neighbors found a job here and relocated from London because they are now 30 with 2 kids and wanted to live in a suburban lifestyle. They have been here for a few years now and they have said time and time again they love it.

[Plutonic Panda]

The Millenials in the Plaza district don't, for the most part, even have kids (yet), but they are already being deeply involved in both Gatewood Elementary and Eugene Fields Elementary. These darn kids aren't going to take "bad schools" for an answer!

I wouldn't doubt it at all. As OKC improves its schools(which I think it's doing), you'll see more and more people take pride and have better families staying and living the core for that reason. No one is saying everyone is going to flee to suburbs and I know quite a bit of people who are fleeing FROM the suburbs.

[Plutonic Panda]

What more data do you need the John Rex Elementary?

JTF, I'm sure there is some chart out there that shows something, but using John Rex Elementary as an example doesn't make much sense. It accommodating a growing core; that is great thing. That doesn't refute that a bunch of millennials are going to leave the core for the suburbs just because an elementary school is being built downtown. A bunch of cities have them. Need I remind you OKC is growing and growing very fast, so part of a maturing city is a maturing core that offers all aspects of what suburbia has, just in different forms.

[Plutonic Panda]

I agreed with some of your other points, so I don't want to think I ignored them.

Don't forget the soaring cost of commuting. Gas isn't getting any cheaper and a new car averages well over 30K nowadays. Add to that the increasing likelihood of more toll roads and it's simply not feasible to live so far out. The number of miles driven per person in the US has stayed flat for about 7 years.

I want to say that the argument of gas not getting cheaper is being countered with much higher fuel efficiency in cars. Hell, the new F150 is likely going to score above 23 MPG with other cars reaching 50-100 mpg becoming more and more common. I drove a Toyota Yaris hauling ass down the highway at about 90mph to Sayre awhile back and made it there **AND** back in half a tank. That is pretty freakin good.

Coped with new technology lowering the cost of roads and highways while making them last longer and new concepts like solar roads that can actually pay for themselves by creating energy is countering the argument that it is costing too much to build and maintain highways. That argument will soon become outdated. I have been meaning to find this article and I will about a new composite material that could be used for road ways that has the potential to last 100+ years. It may or may not happen, but the research is happening and the tech is being developed and tested; it is only a matter of time.

------------

As far as growth in downtown OKC outpacing growth vs. it's suburbs: are you talking about each individual suburb or its MSA as a whole. Last report was OKC's MSA grew faster than OKC did.

Like you, I want options and I want quality options for people to choose.

[Plutonic Panda]

Not really that interesting or even surprising. In 2009 the rate of ownership of mv's in this country was 828/1000 inhabitants. In China the rate was 58/1000 which is well below developed countries. 2009 was the latest I could find numbers for.

Didn't China also overtake America as having the most cars of any country in terms of sheer numbers?

[Questor]

I wish okc and the surrounding areas could focus on making things aesthetically appealing. Too many of our urban as well as suburban areas just look terrible. Terrible designs, terrible building materials, ill thought out interactions with their surroundings, non existent transportation options, and so on. Of all the things that kind of get to me here, that's the one I find most depressing.

I don't have a problem with urban or suburban areas, I think both appeal to different types of people and diversity is good. I just wish we could pull it (both) off better.

[bchris02]

I wish okc and the surrounding areas could focus on making things aesthetically appealing. Too many of our urban as well as suburban areas just look terrible. Terrible designs, terrible building materials, ill thought out interactions with their surroundings, non existent transportation options, and so on. Of all the things that kind of get to me here, that's the one I find most depressing.

I don't have a problem with urban or suburban areas, I think both appeal to different types of people and diversity is good. I just wish we could pull it (both) off better.

I was in Norman last night (haven't spent much time there) and was astounded by the aesthetic difference compared to most of OKC. That proves that the ugliness of OKC cannot be blamed on the climate or natural terrain. Edmond has some nice areas as well. You can always tell when you cross into OKC city limits because there is all of a sudden no landscaping, no or minimal streetlights, and no sidewalks. If the road had a median w/double turn lanes it narrows to a four lane road with no median.

I like what OKC is doing in the core but wish the city wouldn't let its suburban areas just rot like it has a history of doing.

[Bunty]

I was in Norman last night (haven't spent much time there) and was astounded by the aesthetic difference compared to most of OKC. That proves that the ugliness of OKC cannot be blamed on the climate or natural terrain. Edmond has some nice areas as well. You can always tell when you cross into OKC city limits because there is all of a sudden no landscaping, no or minimal streetlights, and no sidewalks. If the road had a median w/double turn lanes it narrows to a four lane road with no median.

I like what OKC is doing in the core but wish the city wouldn't let its suburban areas just rot like it has a history of doing.

Surely, if they have been hit by big hail storms, the suburban areas have been looking better from owners making claims for damage on their home insurance policies. That's why Stillwater looks less like a dump now after a couple of hail storms in 2009.

[Questor]

I was in Norman last night (haven't spent much time there) and was astounded by the aesthetic difference compared to most of OKC. That proves that the ugliness of OKC cannot be blamed on the climate or natural terrain. Edmond has some nice areas as well. You can always tell when you cross into OKC city limits because there is all of a sudden no landscaping, no or minimal streetlights, and no sidewalks. If the road had a median w/double turn lanes it narrows to a four lane road with no median.

I like what OKC is doing in the core but wish the city wouldn't let its suburban areas just rot like it has a history of doing.

Yeah, there are many parts of Norman that are just downright picturesque. The main difference I've noticed is in the old neighborhoods... In Norman, 100 year old houses are still well maintained, have a fresh coat of paint on them, and there are big old trees everywhere. In okc if you're in an old neighborhood in general it's going to look like crap. Not always, but that is often the case. I don't understand the difference. The only thing I can think of is maybe there's just such high demand for housing, even older housing, by campus that it keeps things competitive enough to make landlords and tenants keep their properties up.

[Plutonic Panda]

I have yet to explore Norman in depth, but I am going to this summer. From what I have seen, Norman has some really awesome parts of town that are beginning to be renovated and it would be nice if they would make it walkable so you can enjoy it.

[bchris02]

Yeah, there are many parts of Norman that are just downright picturesque. The main difference I've noticed is in the old neighborhoods... In Norman, 100 year old houses are still well maintained, have a fresh coat of paint on them, and there are big old trees everywhere. In okc if you're in an old neighborhood in general it's going to look like crap. Not always, but that is often the case. I don't understand the difference. The only thing I can think of is maybe there's just such high demand for housing, even older housing, by campus that it keeps things competitive enough to make landlords and tenants keep their properties up.

I agree. Heritage Hills/Mesta Park is the only place in OKC that really compares.

[Buffalo Bill]

I agree. Heritage Hills/Mesta Park is the only place in OKC that really compares.

Crown Heights? Putnam Heights? Linwood?

There are plenty of others.

[boitoirich]

Everything from NE 23rd to NE 13th between I-235 and N Lottie Ave. is within striking distance of being spectacular. That area has tremendous bones. People wanting access to OKC's growing urban amenities but to live in suburban neighborhoods really ought to invest in Classen North Highland Park (Walcourt's neighborhood), Lincoln Terrace, and the Medical Community. Expanding the streetcar system to the OUHSC would make the investment even more worthwhile if that ever happens.