April 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[SEMIweather]

Haven’t been paying too much attention to this one as I’m busy this evening and won’t be able to follow along too closely, but the wording in the SPC’s 1630z outlook discussion is definitely catching my eye.

[SoonerDave]

Clouds have moved east, need temps to raise about 10 degrees for any chance

Yeah, we've got "cloudy sunshine" at best here.

[kukblue1]

The 1 pm run of the HRRR shows 2 storms now just south of the Metro. The last about 2 hours as the cap builds back in.

[kukblue1]

Also HRRR fires them around 9pm this could be an after dark event.

[SoonerDave]

My weather station here in SW OKC says it's about 82 in my neck of the woods, a few miles SE of WRWA

[C_M_25]

My weather station at home is at 90 deg. However, it could be artificially high. Still though. We’re close to the cap right now.

[Anonymous.]

NWS just launched special balloon and cap is still strong, but there are signs of mixing.

NAM still supporting a few cells popping off between OKC and Lawton.

[SoonerDave]

My weather station was being a little too aggressive with the temps. I've been driving around OKC this afternoon and temps are barely 80.

[BG918]

HRRR now showing a few storms firing around 7-8 pm

[Anonymous.]

MD is out.

Mesoscale Discussion 0561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southwestern and south-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 192057Z - 192300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Conditional severe threat increasing. Potential for
supercells with large hail and a couple tornadoes late afternoon
into the evening. A watch will be possible in the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A conditional severe threat is increasing across
portions of southwestern and south-central Oklahoma. A surface
dryline continues to mix eastward across Oklahoma and Texas. Ahead
of the dryline, mid 60s dew points have moved north of the Red River
across southern Oklahoma. 19z RAOB from OUN indicates moistening and
a weakening cap beneath an elevated mixed layer with steep lapse
rates (around 8 C/km). Temperatures have warmed into the 80s with
strong daytime heating, with MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg. Further
indication of the weakening cap can be seen in satellite, as cumulus
fields continue to show increasing development. The 19z OUN RAOB and
surface objective analysis also indicate deep layer shear around
35-40 kts. The main risk with any initial storm development would be
large hail, given steep lapse rates. As the main wave approaches
from the west with deepening low pressure across the Central Plains,
850 mb flow will increase through the evening, further elongating
hodographs and increasing risk of a couple tornadoes. Trends will be
monitored closely with a watch will be possible within few hours.

..Thornton/Grams.. 04/19/2023

[Anonymous.]

Towers are busting through right now. ~4:35pm

One near Mustang and another down toward Chickasha.

[SEMIweather]

Ninnekah storm looking right away like a near-term threat for the Metro.

[Anonymous.]

Tornado Watch is out for all of C into SW OK. 40% Tornado Probability. 60% Hail.

Norman, I would take hail precautions now. Chickasha storm going up big.

[Anonymous.]

Beginning to get some separation on at least 3 storms as of ~5:20pm. Mustang-Moore, Norman, and then new Chickasha cell.

Full now-cast situation, so tune into any local news channel and they will have coverage.

[Pete]

Dime-sized hail and strong winds near Penn Square.

[gjl]

Brief 2 minute downpour around NW 39th and Meridian. Looks like more coming up from the SW.

[Libbymin]

Glad we’re getting all of this rain right now. We sure needed it.

[C_M_25]

This is insane. I can’t remember a time when our models whiffed this badly on the storms. HRRR had nothing until late this afternoon. Seemed like the models also had the cold front coming through earlier than reality. Winds are suggesting that the cold front is not even in Oklahoma yet. This is going to be a long evening.

[Anonymous.]

Chickasha-Newcastle cells going to tornado in a min. ~6:20pm

[Anonymous.]

^Newcastle storm tornado warned. Chickasha coming next.

[C_M_25]

We just got hammered with near baseball sized hail. New roof time probably…

[BoulderSooner]

Dime-sized hail and strong winds near Penn Square.

quarters and larger in NE Edmond .. wow

[Bill Robertson]

WOW! We haven't had hail like we just had in years. Not all that big. A few quarter sized among tons of dime and pea sized. But enough that the ground was white. The cat and my wife went and hid in the closet.

[gjl]

We just got hammered with near baseball sized hail. New roof time probably…

Location?

[Anonymous.]

^Newcastle storm tornado warned. Chickasha coming next.

Tornado Warning for this cell now. ~6:45pm