Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

[Boo1083]

Has anyone heard about the Sigificant Severe weather outbreak Oklahoma is suppose to have Mon-Wed ? If so can you detail it ?

[BG918]

Good chance of thunderstorms/severe weather next week...I'm sure Venture will give a synopsis this weekend. The weathern pattern is shifting, which is good news for us because it won't be as hot and we should have more chances of rain.

Nice somewhat unexpected rainfall last night on the north and east sides of the OKC metro. A few power outages reported in Tulsa as the line moved through.

[Thunder]

Kool. I hope it to be really exciting next week. It will really help a lot with the water conservation, because mom always gripe about water usage (max lawn watering every two days), even though I pay this month's bill (only a low $43 total).

[Bunty]

Good chance of thunderstorms/severe weather next week...I'm sure Venture will give a synopsis this weekend. The weathern pattern is shifting, which is good news for us because it won't be as hot and we should have more chances of rain.

Nice somewhat unexpected rainfall last night on the north and east sides of the OKC metro. A few power outages reported in Tulsa as the line moved through.

Good. Too frequently every year the 2nd half of June dries up and gets hotter.

The Norwegian Meteorological Institute with the Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation puts out long term weather forecasts for places in much of the world. On June 21, Tuesday, it is forecasting over 2 inches of rain for Oklahoma City. See at:
http://www.yr.no/place/United_States...City/long.html

[venture]

Yeah like BG said, it is definitely going to get stormier and wetter going forward it appears. Which means a lot of people (at least in Norman) need to get those tarps up fairly quickly. Driving around today saw a lot of exposed plywood on houses, and if it is anything like my situation, that can equate to a new indoor water feature that won't really raise the value of your home. :-) Looks like insurance companies are just slammed though.

Quick outlook based on the morning GFS run...

Today - A given. Extremely hot west. Storms on going NE. Could see more form today across most of OK except for SC and SE sections. Slight risk is up for all other areas.

Friday - GFS keeps it pretty dry, even hotter. Instabilities will be very high tomorrow, so still except to see these typical afternoon/evening strong to severe storms to pop up in isolated areas.

Saturday - Same as Friday.

Sunday - Hot again. Instabilities ease back a bit, but still chance of storms - greatest in the NW.

Monday - Hot still. Not a lot of precip, but isolated storms are probably.

Tuesday - Temps cooler into the 80s and 90s. Storms are appearing very probable across Western OK early in the evening spreading across all of the state overnight. Some extremely heavy raid (over 3 to 5 inches) possible south of I-40.

Wednesday - Temps in the 80s. High instability. Widely scattered storms across the state, with best chances in the NW where another complex will form.

Thursday - Ongoing storm complex from overnight, with more heavy rain possible in the western half of the state, amounts still near a half inch in eastern parts. Temps will get held down some due to the rain. Same with instability. Rain during the afternoon should mainly be isolated to scattered with POPs increasing the further SE you get in the state.

Friday (24th) - Overnight storms look most likely along the Red River. Dry elsewhere. Chance for an isolated storm, but main story will be a complex forming in CO/KS that will have a chance of dropping into OK.

Saturday (25th) - Rinse and repeat.

Sunday (26th) - Looks mostly dry except for NW OK.

Monday (27th) - Chance of early storms west, isolated elsewhere late.

Tuesday (28th) - Mostly dry. Isolate storm possible.

Wednesday (29th) - Chance of storms north of I-40, otherwise isolated.

Thursday (30th) - Storms on going from the overnight across most of Oklahoma. Additional complex could form in KS/NW OK.

Friday (1st) - Storms on going west early, dry most other places.

Saturday (2nd) - Storms on going east early, dry west.

[venture]

I'm going to be bringing the Storm Scope chat room up later today. It will remain up until we get into another dry spell. So those that are registered already, expect to see my spam. :-)

[Boo1083]

Are the storms next week mostly going to be hail, wind and heavy rain makers ? I'm in Southeast Oklahoma ( leflore county) what does the tornado threat look like for next week ? I don't mind the heavy rains, but I can live without the tornadoes ! Thanks in advance

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 162037Z - 162200Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SWRN KS THROUGH WRN OK AND THE
TX PANHANDLE. THE STRONGER ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL. WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS INCREASING WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP
MIXING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE. STORMS WILL LIKELY
INITIALLY DEVELOP WHERE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 100F AND DEWPOINTS HAVE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE 40S SUPPORTING HIGH BASED CONVECTION WITHIN A
WEAKLY CAPPED AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO SWRN KS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY
AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS/ AND STRONGER INSTABILITY /1500-2000 J/KG/ MLCAPE IN PLACE
ACROSS WRN OK AND SWRN KS. THERE IS ALSO SOME POSSIBILITY THAT
STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH A NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM SWRN KS INTO N-CNTRL OK LATER THIS EVENING.
GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION THE PRIMARY THREATS
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY LATER THIS EVENING WITH ANY STORMS THAT MAY INTERACT WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS W-CNTRL KS WHERE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY
BE A LITTLE GREATER.

..DIAL.. 06/16/2011

[venture]

Ww 486 severe tstm ks ok tx 162055z - 170300z axis..60 statute miles east and west of line..
35nne ddc/dodge city ks/ - 55sw csm/clinton ok/ ..aviation coords.. 50nm e/w /51ene gck - 31ne cds/ hail surface and aloft..2 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26020.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLINTON
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 483...WW 484...WW 485...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE
BY ROUGHLY 22Z FROM SW KS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...WHERE STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND AN APPROACHING MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKENING THE CAP. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE PRESENT E OF THE DRYLINE WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. OTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
DRYLINE IN SW KS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0486 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

WS 0486
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 40%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 26020
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

[jmarkross]

Don't know if anyone posted this already--if not--here it is...microburst in Norman

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6ddo...&feature=email

[OKCisOK4me]

Sooooooooooooooooooooooooooo, there's a chance of rain overnight here in OKC, if a line forms to the west and sweeps east? Will it hold together? If so, AWESOME! Rain, lighting, and loud booming thunder. That's all I request...

[Dustin]

Don't know if anyone posted this already--if not--here it is...microburst in Norman

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6ddo...&feature=email

Amazing!

[Thunder]

Slight risk today for some wind...hail...lightning.

[Thunder]

Someone is being very bad on Twitter today. Saw it in Venture's Lair.

themahler:
When you're hot, you're hot! OKC has tied today's record high, set in 1924, at 201 degrees. Will we break it? #okwx [via Twitter]

[Thunder]

Such a boring day. They always say when the weather is not hot enough that it needs to be hotter to break cap, but when it actually is really hot (103)....still no storm.

[bandnerd]

Yes, it can be too hot to storm.

[venture]

Watch is now up for the Metro area and to the south.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 504
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA TO 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
MINERAL WELLS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 499...WW 500...WW
501...WW 502...WW 503...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY LINE WHICH
EXTENDS NNE/SSW THRU THE WATCH. HOT VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
INCLUDING VERY HIGH DCAPE SUPPORTS DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24015.


PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : <05%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : <02%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 20%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24015
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

[Boo1083]

Um, twc is saying southeast oklahoma is in for a severe weather outbreak, including tornadoes. Can anyone give me their thoughts on this? Man just when i thought it was safe to come out of the storm shelter.

[venture]

Um, twc is saying southeast oklahoma is in for a severe weather outbreak, including tornadoes. Can anyone give me their thoughts on this? Man just when i thought it was safe to come out of the storm shelter.

No idea where they got that at all.

Here is the risk for today, tomorrow, and Tuesday...



HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
520 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALVA TO CHEYENNE... AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SEMINOLE... TO PAULS VALLEY... TO HENRIETTA TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

SOME DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES AND TENDER VEGETATION FROM LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON... HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED... WITH A DRYLINE STRETCHED THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SLIGHT COOLING OF MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARM AIR CAP AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED... WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT. AS THE STORMS TRAVEL TOWARD A STRONGER CAP... THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY JUN 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 106 AND 112 MAY BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

IN ADDITION...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WILDFIRE POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 9 PM. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING. GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY COMPARED WITH SUNDAY... WITH WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS EVERY DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ONE MORE VERY HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. PERSONS WORKING OUTDOORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY HIGH WILDFIRE POTENTIAL IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE VEGETATION IS DRY...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

---------
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
...OK/TX...
THE SURFACE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM WESTERN OK INTO WEST TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE...COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STORMS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITHIN A FEW COUNTIES OF INITIATION DUE TO INCREASING INHIBITION FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...THOSE STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...KS/OK...

VERY HOT SFC TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NOTED SOUTH OF I-70 ACROSS KS INTO OK WHERE READINGS WILL REBOUND ABOVE 100F IN MANY PLACES. THIS DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...COUPLED WITH SUPERCELL SHEAR PROFILES...WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CLOUD BASES MAY BE SOMEWHAT LOWER NORTH OF I-70 WHICH MAY INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF NERN KS...NWD. OTHERWISE...HAIL/WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF OUTLOOK.


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT REGARDING THE EWD EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH INTO THE MS VALLEY...WITH CENTER OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO SRN MN. WHILE THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO STALL TEMPORARILY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THE ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE WILL EASE BENEATH THE MID LEVEL LOW SUCH THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL BECOME RATHER STACKED. NET RESULT WILL BE A BROAD ZONE OF MODERATE-STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY...JUXTAPOSED WITH A FAIRLY MOIST/BUOYANT AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 2000-3000 J/KG SBCAPE.

GIVEN THAT SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL COOLING WILL OVERSPREAD THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IT APPEARS THE CAP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER THAN DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE NOTED AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY...SWWD INTO NCNTRL TX WHERE INTENSE HEAT WILL FORCE HIGH BASED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS FROM JUST EAST OF THE SFC LOW OVER SRN MN...ESEWD ACROSS WI INTO LOWER MI. THIS ZONE OF INTEREST WILL BE DRIVEN IN LARGE PART BY WARM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK REGION POSING A THREAT FOR AT LEAST LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

[Boo1083]

Thank you so much ! I was really getting worried ! Dr Forbes still has central Oklahoma and south east Oklahoma in his risks for a outbreak. Many people have told me his forecasts are not all that reliable tho . I don't know tho, but again thank you !!

[venture]

Some significant severe weather is possible in Oklahoma today.

Models showing initiation around drive time today with a line of strong to severe storms. There is a risk of very large hail, damaging winds and a couple tornadoes.



...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS TO OK/NORTH TX...
SCATTERED HIGHER BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE DRYLINE/OVERTAKING COLD FRONT FROM EAST-CENTRAL KS INTO
OK...WITH MORE ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH/WEST
TX. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH HIGH
BASES/RELATIVELY LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL
TEND TO MITIGATE A MORE CONSEQUENTIAL TORNADO THREAT. FACTORS SUCH
AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET/DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT IMPLY THAT STORMS MAY TEND TO
CONGEAL/CLUSTER BY EVENING...WITH AN APPRECIABLE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/WATER LOADING ASSOCIATED
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.

[ou48A]

So has anyone got a good handle yet on what the tornado threat is like in Oklahoma today?
I hear that there could be a few tornadoes in Kansas Nebraska today.

[venture]

So has anyone got a good handle yet on what the tornado threat is like in Oklahoma today?
I hear that there could be a few tornadoes in Kansas Nebraska today.

I wouldn't get worked up about the tornado threat today. We could see a couple in the state to day yes, but that isn't the main story. The main headline today will be storms capable of hail up to baseballs and winds over 80 mph driving that hail.

[bandnerd]

Awesome, the one evening my car will not be in the garage.

[venture]

Newest short term HRRR model run is showing storm initiation will be around 5PM today in or just to the west of the I-35 corridor south of I-40. By 6PM it quickly fills in from KS to TX borders. Keep in mind that HRRR can tend to be off on its exact storm location by 50 miles or so, so just take the images below with the general understanding that these storms will fire in the general region of what is shown.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrcon...main=t5&wjet=1