May 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[PoliSciGuy]

Early storms didn't seem to change much according to NWS Norman:
https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status...05115489812505

[jn1780]

The latest day 1 outlook is about the same. The current ongoing cluster may limit activity somewhat in northern Oklahoma and Kansas, but storms are still expected to form out west. The evening low level jet is when the tornado threat starts going up.

[C_M_25]

Man guys, I’m struggling with this one today. I’ve been outside and my “okie senses” aren’t tingling (great scientific term there lol). All we need is a bit of clearing out but it currently doesn’t feel all that conducive for storms out there at the moment (north side of okc).

[SoonerDave]

Cloud deck remaining thick where I am.

I admit I'm on the side of hoping no major storms. I know some here are wanting something chaseable or meteorologically impressive, and I understand that, but for me I'm kinda the weather focal for my family - and that includes an 87-year-old mom who isn't terribly mobile, so can't necessarily get down her storm cellar, a daughter living in Moore and a son down in Newcastle, all.of whom typically text me on a day like today and say "what's up with the weather..."

[PoliSciGuy]

Check in in another couple hours, clearing is reaching Weatherford right now and should be in the metro by then. Not gonna take too much sunlight and heating to re-prime the environment after this morning.

[NikonNurse]

The visable satellite images show a lot of clearing southwest correct? Or am I looking at the wrong thing?

That might make for a bad day for some...

[jn1780]

The visable satellite images show a lot of clearing southwest correct? Or am I looking at the wrong thing?

That might make for a bad day for some...

No thats correct. Things are clearing. Apparently there's a break in cloud cover right over Hobart mesonet station.
https://www.mesonet.org/weather/sola...ation?ref=1252

[PoliSciGuy]

Video update from NWS Norman

[kukblue1]

It's not going to take much clearing today but now that we are pushing 1pm and the cloud cover is still thick, not moving very fast, and still in the upper 60s it might not be as bad at all. I would favor south of i-40 as of now.

[SEMIweather]

Rogue cell to the SW of Wichita Falls that fired off of the outflow boundary feels like it could have a negative effect on moisture return if it ultimately establishes itself. If it ends up dissipating, feels like there is still more than enough time to heat up the atmosphere in SW Oklahoma. Less certain about areas north of I-40.

[C_M_25]

This system is a mess. Cloud cover is still way too thick in OKC. Don't think I've seen models bouncing around this much in a while as well.

The latest HRRR run shows 2 clusters of storms moving in different directions. The storms north of I-40 move off to the northwest and the storms south of I-40 turn into an MCS and move southeast. Don't think I've seen that before.

[jn1780]

There's some pretty good warming occurring now in southwest central Oklahoma. The thickest cloud cover over the metro may move out in the next 30mins to an hour looking at satellite loops. That Wichita Falls storm is now dead.

[PoliSciGuy]

Yeah other than the metro, the rest of central/Western OK is clear and warming rapidly, and our turn is coming any minute now. Tornado watch should be out shortly.

[SoonerDave]

Looks like NWS will be issuing a Tornado Watch for about SW 2/3 of the state here shortly.

[SoonerDave]

Sorry, tried to post Twitter link and forgot that isn't implemented here.

Basically said they're looking at two possible areas of initiation, one NW and one SW. Said central OK.was most likely affected between 6-8 pm.

[C_M_25]

Cloud cover is unrelenting and building back. Just don’t see how this is going to clear out and do anything meaningful to okc.

[baralheia]

Things in the south metro (near Crossroads) are warming up. My personal weather station is showing 75°F with a clear warming trend since noon, and the dewpoint is at 66°F. Solar radiation is variable but climbing as the cloud deck thins - up to 663W/m² in the same period.

[PoliSciGuy]

Cloud cover is unrelenting and building back. Just don’t see how this is going to clear out and do anything meaningful to okc.

It's not building back, and in the main area where initiation is gonna begin it's plenty sunny and warm

[SoonerDave]

Cloud cover is unrelenting and building back. Just don’t see how this is going to clear out and do anything meaningful to okc.

That's exactly what I'm seeing. I think it's starting to clear, then it clouds up again. Thick cover still here, weather station reporting 75 degrees.

[C_M_25]

It's not building back, and in the main area where initiation is gonna begin it's plenty sunny and warm

Go watch the visible satellite loops. It is building back over the okc area. It cleared for a bit then the clouds came right back over and pretty thick. It is warming a bit though. The storms definitely have enough energy to initiate where the clouds cleared. I just wonder if there is enough instability to maintain them over the city.

[C_M_25]

I feel like the high res NAM is more representative at the moment. The HRRR has a line of storms that have should have already fired in NW ok. Those have yet to materialize. The NAM has a very similar look to it to the current radar trends.

[PoliSciGuy]

Go watch the visible satellite loops. It is building back over the okc area. It cleared for a bit then the clouds came right back over and pretty thick. It is warming a bit though. The storms definitely have enough energy to initiate where the clouds cleared. I just wonder if there is enough instability to maintain them over the city.

Fair point. I think we'll get an hour or two that should get us close to 80 which should be enough, but this might put the northern part of the metro out of play for the more significant stuff

[Anonymous.]

If you watch up near Pueblo CO (go to their radar), the low has been basically stationary or even a slight drift west. Need the system to make a jog east before any substantial lift comes into play.

Southern end of the dryline starting to get some movement down SW of Ft Worth.

[C_M_25]

If you watch up near Pueblo CO (go to their radar), the low has been basically stationary or even a slight drift west. Need the system to make a jog east before any substantial lift comes into play.

Southern end of the dryline starting to get some movement down SW of Ft Worth.

Do you think that thing is going to move in time? I wonder what the odds are of this system busting because of that low not moving?

[baralheia]

Tornado Watch just issued, covering central to south-central and parts of southwest Oklahoma. This covers OKC down to the Red River.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0213.html

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern and Central Oklahoma
North Texas

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to quickly develop and intensify
through late afternoon, initially across southern Oklahoma and far
north Texas in vicinity of a remnant boundary. Additional
development will likely occur east-northeastward into central
Oklahoma by early evening as the air mass continues to quickly
moisten and destabilize. Supercells capable of very large hail and
tornadoes can be expected through at least mid-evening as storms
spread toward/east of the I-35 corridor.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles west of Fort Sill OK to 30
miles north of Durant OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see
the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 210...WW 211...WW 212...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 22025.

...Guyer