May 2022 - General Weather Discussion

[snark0leptic]

Wind just shifted and rain starting to fall near Penn Square.

Buckle up Pete, here comes our wind.

[Anonymous.]

Funny enough, the N winds behind the front are actually stronger than the winds associated with most of the storms right now. Blowing dust will follow through.

[Anonymous.]

Short-range models hint at some more isolated cell action across SC OK. Could have some additional spinups down there heading into dark.

OKC this large storm hitting now is the main show.

[Pete]

Wow, that was a real frog-strangler.

I bet I got an inch of rain in about 20 minutes. Now, nice and cool and calm.

[soonerguru]

LMAO at "frog-strangler."

[C_M_25]

Well, it’s been fun! On to the next one after some nice weather tomorrow. Any idea what Wednesday has in store? I was seeing a lot of talk about it being a significant severe weather day but it looks more like a flooding event when I last looked at the models.

[snark0leptic]

Beautiful mammatus clouds to the NW just waiting to catch the sunset.

[Timshel]

Not a bad view from edgemere park!



Unsure why it’s uploading upside down!

[snark0leptic]

From the Waterford Hotel complex. Also for some reason I prefer the upside-down Edgemere photo, very fantastical.

[PhiAlpha]

Wow, that was a real frog-strangler.

I bet I got an inch of rain in about 20 minutes. Now, nice and cool and calm.

One of my all time favorite downpour metaphors haha.

[C_M_25]

What do you guys think about tomorrow? Feels like the models were showing a predominantly flooding threat, but they seem to be trending towards some isolated thunderstorms in the evening. Rain in the morning. I’m not seeing much in the way of instability in okc. The big threat looks further south. Curious what you all think.

[SEMIweather]

I haven’t looked in depth yet but pattern recognition makes me think the primary threats for the OKC Metro will be large hail and flooding rains from repeated rounds of elevated thunderstorms, while the main tornado threat will be across Southwest and South Central Oklahoma to the south of the warm front.

[C_M_25]

I haven’t looked in depth yet but pattern recognition makes me think the primary threats for the OKC Metro will be large hail and flooding rains from repeated rounds of elevated thunderstorms, while the main tornado threat will be across Southwest and South Central Oklahoma to the south of the warm front.

It looks like some of the ingredients will be in place for tornadic development in the late evening just prior to the MCS coming through. The NAM tried to initiate a couple of isolated storms with low bases in central Oklahoma. Figure if these can take root, they could give the south metro a few headaches. We’ll see if they can get going though.

[Anonymous.]

Tomorrow will be a mess. Flood Watch is out for basically the E 2/3 of OK.

Perhaps 3 waves of storms. The first one could be hitting C OK by lunchtime. Then a break before severe threat goes up with afternoon dryline storms. Then finally a round of storms overnight from the main low as it moves across the plains from SW to NE.

If there is less storms early on, and we have more clearing, then afternoon severe chances will go up. Much like what we saw on Monday. All severe modes are possible, including 10% tornado probabilities for OKC and points S and W.

[Pete]

Anyone know how many inches of rainfall we need in OKC to get up to average for the year?

[catcherinthewry]

Anyone know how many inches of rainfall we need in OKC to get up to average for the year?

2.74" not counting what we got last night.

[baralheia]

2.74" not counting what we got last night.

The 18z HRRR model from today is estimating about 4.25" of rain tomorrow and overnight in the Crossroads area of south OKC, while the public hourly weather forecast graph from the NWS is showing 3.7". Both predict that the majority of that rain will come during the overnight hours as the low tracks through. That same HRRR run is heavily favoring the south half of the Metro for rainfall totals - estimating that parts of Moore and far SE OKC could see localized amounts of 6" or more, whereas Edmond might only see about 2.5"-3".

[soonerguru]

Any weather geeks have a bead on next week? I need to travel for work: either North Texas or NW Arkansas / SW Missouri. I really don't like traveling during high-end severe weather days, but I'll do what I have to do to make a buck.

[soonerguru]

The 18z HRRR model from today is estimating about 4.25" of rain tomorrow and overnight in the Crossroads area of south OKC, while the public hourly weather forecast graph from the NWS is showing 3.7". Both predict that the majority of that rain will come during the overnight hours as the low tracks through. That same HRRR run is heavily favoring the south half of the Metro for rainfall totals - estimating that parts of Moore and far SE OKC could see localized amounts of 6" or more, whereas Edmond might only see about 2.5"-3".

"Only" 2.5"-3" would be a drought buster! Bring it on! May is shaping up to be a normalizer of OKC weather. This has been one of the driest winter / early spring stretches that I remember.

[C_M_25]

I don’t understand why everyone is pushing the severe weather threat today. It doesn’t look like the warm front is going to push very far into southern Oklahoma today. Also, with the waves of rain, it doesn’t look like we ever really charge the atmosphere. What am I missing?

[SEMIweather]

I don’t understand why everyone is pushing the severe weather threat today. It doesn’t look like the warm front is going to push very far into southern Oklahoma today. Also, with the waves of rain, it doesn’t look like we ever really charge the atmosphere. What am I missing?

Incredibly complex setup means a lot of margin for error, and there’s likely going to be a high-end parameter space somewhere in the state, just not sure where yet. I still favor SW Oklahoma for the greatest threat but that doesn’t mean the risk for the Metro is nil. All in all, it’s just going to be a mess today, with as many as three more rounds of storms impacting OKC in addition to what’s already moved through.

[Anonymous.]

Party has started early today.

The main focus will be I-40 and south for afternoon severe threat, but nowcast situation will be needed for all areas where any/if clearing occurs. SPC has this outlined this morning with Enhanced Risk carrying 10% tornado probability with 30% hail.

Atmosphere is going to have significant lift across the state as the low pressure system is ejected directly overhead. We will have storms firing up across SW OK basically all day. Then potentially another round from dryline development out in the TX PH that turns into more of a squall line.

It is a very muddy forecast due to cold pooling and the instability question mark. Personally I think any substantial tornado threat for C OK will be for leading discrete supercells that get out ahead of the main cluster. Then an after-dark lighter tornado threat for any spinups associated with QLCS.

EDIT: Almost forgot to mention the biggest positive. Many models forecasting rainfall in amounts of 4-6" across a solid portion of SW and C OK. (also for E OK, but they are already spoiled over there)

[soonerguru]

It's hard to imagine the atmosphere getting too charged up when your high temperature is only 67. Am I wrong?

[Anonymous.]

SPC has upgraded SW OK and NW TX to Moderate (15% TOR) as short-range models indicate a handful of supercells to develop across that region and track east. They have also added a hashed area (30%) for significant wind threat from about OKC to S of Tulsa.


High dewpoints and temps in the 70s are spilling back over the RR across SC OK, this should continue spreading N, but to me as of typing this around 11:30am - OKC's instability will be more mild compared to points S and SW.


Storm initiation looks like it will occur across NW TX before large-scale destabilization can take place across most of OKC viewing area. This will cast additional cloud cover up to the NE.

[PoliSciGuy]

Not loving this SPC language about hurricane-force gusts....

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1521904743961923584