Oklahoma Weather Discussion - February/March 2013

[venture]

Caddo County storm is splitting like the earlier one in Comanche County. Northern cell is going to move into Tuttle here shortly.

[venture]

Elevated cell now between Hwy 9 and Etoawah Road...near 96th Ave SE south of Lake T Bird. Mainly just a lot of noise and lightning right now.

Another cell going up between Shawnee and Tecumseh.

Cell moving towards Tuttle has hail estimated at 0.65" right now. Hail core is on the Northern side of the storm.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0814 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...FAR N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 68...

VALID 310114Z - 310245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 68
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG
WIND GUSTS CONTINUES NEAR-TERM BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS NOCTURNAL COOLING OCCURS WITHIN A VERY WEAKLY-FORCED
ENVIRONMENT.

DISCUSSION...A CONVOLUTED SURFACE PATTERN PERSISTS WITH SEVERAL
SMALL-SCALE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONTAL SURGE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. MODIFIED 00Z FWD
RAOB AND PURCELL OK PROFILER SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE
AMIDST 35-40 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS FROM ALONG THE RED RIVER NEWD INTO ERN OK.
HOWEVER...ANEMIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW...EVEN DIFFLUENT IN PARTS OF S-CNTRL
OK/N-CNTRL TX...SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO
RE-INTENSIFICATION/SUSTENANCE OF LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL BEYOND THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND MLCIN SLOWLY
INCREASES. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY 21-22Z HRRR RUNS WHICH
DEPICT CONVECTION DIMINISHING SUBSTANTIALLY BY 03-04Z.

..GRAMS.. 03/31/2013

[Dustin]

That radar view is really cool

[venture]

Updated warning for Grady storm.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 915 PM CDT


* AT 820 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TUTTLE MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES
WEST OF POCASSET...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHICKASHA...TUTTLE...AMBER...POCASSET...MIDDLEBERG AND BRIDGE CREEK.

[Servicetech571]

That radar view is really cool

+1

[venture]

Bigger image showing hail cores increasing around Bridge Creek and the one moving into Chickasha.

[venture]

New watch NE.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 69
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 850 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 66...WW 68...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
NEAR AND N OF TULSA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT SETTLING SWD THROUGH
NRN OK. AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST WITH
MLCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 1000 J/KG. MOREOVER...THE TULSA VAD HAS
SHOW A STEADY STRENGTHENING OF SLY WINDS BELOW 1 KM WHICH IS
RESULTING IN AN ENLARGED HODOGRAPH WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS AS STORMS SPREAD SEWD
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31025.

[ou48A]

+1

+2

[venture]

This is for the weakening storm moving in.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
855 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

OKZ028-029-310215-
MCCLAIN OK-CLEVELAND OK-
855 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013


...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MCCLAIN AND WEST
CENTRAL CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...


AT 852 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEWCASTLE...
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.


HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

[venture]

I know we have some Eastern OK folks here, so I'll relay this...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
910 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 945 PM CDT


* AT 907 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF TULLAHASSEE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.


* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...OKAY AND
FORT GIBSON.

[venture]

Things in Central OK are settling down. Last storm SE of Chickasha is still severe but weakening as well. That'll wrap up the updates for now.

[venture]

Latest HRRR has storms start to fire between 1 and 3AM over the Western Half of the state (mainly I-40 and north). Quickly evolving into a large MCS diving to the ESE.

Loop

[Bunty]

Latest HRRR has storms start to fire between 1 and 3AM over the Western Half of the state (mainly I-40 and north). Quickly evolving into a large MCS diving to the ESE.

Loop

And so OKC has a 90% chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly after 2 am. Some may be severe.

[Achilleslastand]

And so OKC has a 90% chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly after 2 am. Some may be severe.

Bectcha a pizza it misses us completely.

[venture]

Update HRRR forecast from 5AM. One storm is out there right now moving into Roger Mills County, but so far that's it. Looks like main batch of storms gets going around 3AM in West Central OK.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN/SRN OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 69...

VALID 310613Z - 310715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTM STRENGTHENING OVER HEMPHILL COUNTY TX AS OF
06Z LIKELY IS FIRST MANIFESTATION OF CONVECTIVE EVENT THAT SHOULD
DEVELOP AND GROW UPSCALE ACROSS WRN OK THROUGH 10Z...AND MOVE ESEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN OK. MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL. TSTMS
WITH ACCESS TO PREFRONTAL/WARM-SECTOR AIR NEAR SFC ALSO MAY PRODUCE
STG/ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT FROM SRN PORTIONS TUL AREA
SWWD INVOF OUN THEN WWD PAST CSM TO NEAR AMA. BOUNDARY SHOULD
ACCELERATE SEWD AS STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT THROUGH REMAINDER
MORNING WITH WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW POSSIBLE OVER NW TX.
STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS FCST TO IMPINGE ON
PROGRESSIVELY GREATER WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE WITH SEWD EXTENT.
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 50S F WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE...REDUCED VERY SLOWLY AMIDST
PREFRONTAL WAA/MOIST ADVECTION. THESE FACTORS SHOULD OFFSET
DELETERIOUS EFFECTS OF SFC DIABATIC COOLING AND WEAK PREFRONTAL
WINDS ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE
GROWTH OF CONVECTION. ASSORTED STORM-MOTION ALGORITHMS APPLIED TO
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG FRONT MAY BE
UNDERCUT...BUT ONLY GRADUALLY...GIVEN ITS SEWD MOTION INFLUENCED BY
DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES ABOVE FRONTAL CURRENT.
ADDITIONALLY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED ABOVE
FRONTAL SFC AND WITHIN AT LEAST 75 NM BEHIND FRONT...WHERE ELEVATED
MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE AMIDST 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES.

..EDWARDS/KERR.. 03/31/2013

[Bunty]

Bectcha a pizza it misses us completely.

There will surely be at least a sprinkle, or two.

[PennyQuilts]

Dog just got up in bed with us. That usually means thunder in El Reno.

[Anonymous.]

Storms rapidly firing in W and NW OK. Moving ESE.

[WilliamTell]

Dog just got up in bed with us. That usually means thunder in El Reno.

Our baby was up from 1:30 till now, just as happy as he could be. I figured the weather had to of been changing.

[OKCisOK4me]

Looks good just north and west of OKC area. ...just happen to be in Tulsa

[Plutonic Panda]

Well, all that grass seed I put down the other day, GONE!

[Dustin]

Raining HEAVILY in the quail creek area

[PennyQuilts]

Here comes the rain - East of Mustang.

[PennyQuilts]

Correction - SERIOUS hail. Sounds like cannonballs.