Oklahoma Weather Discussion - February/March 2013

[Anonymous.]

These cells moving into OKC right now are nice and slow.

It has been pouring here for a good while in N OKC. It started off pure hail, probably dimes.

[venture]

These are just radar estimates, but looks like some got a lot of rain while many others didn't get much at all...

[venture]

Slight Risk today for near the entire state but far NW. Storm chances today are such that instability will be high, but so will convective inhibition as well. So might not see much of anything until later this evening/tonight. However, if anything can get going it'll have a good shot at going severe.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOWNSTREAM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCK...THE SPLIT MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES CONVERGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES. EAST
OF THE ROCKIES...THE SOUTHERN STREAM HAS BECOME
SUPPRESSED...EXTENDING IN A NORTHWESTERLY BELT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHILE THE
MORE PROMINENT NORTHERN BRANCH CURVES IN A BROAD CYCLONIC BELT
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TROUGHING WITHIN THIS LATTER STREAM IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER HALF OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON/JAMES BAY REGION.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION...WHICH MAY NOSE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
TURN FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...A MORE RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS
WIND SHIFT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. AND LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT...BENEATH RESIDUAL STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...APPEARS TO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY TODAY...WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE
OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES PROGRESSING EAST OF THE PLAINS. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS ACTIVITY...DAYTIME HEATING OF MID 50S TO NEAR 60F SURFACE
DEW POINTS APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG...PERHAPS LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG...ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT MID/UPPER SUBSIDENCE IMPACTING
MUCH OF THIS REGION THROUGH THE DAY PROBABLY WILL INHIBIT NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...WITH CAPPING RELATIVELY WEAK TO
THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...STRONGER STORMS LIKELY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

AN INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT MAY RESULT IN MORE SUBSTANTIVE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER. THE
EXTENT OF ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL PROBABLY DEPEND
LARGELY ON TIMING WITH RESPECT TO THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING AND STABILIZATION...WHICH REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

..KERR/LEITMAN.. 03/30/2013

[venture]

New Update...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48 THROUGH SUN AS E
PACIFIC REX BLOCK EDGES SLOWLY EWD AND HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE N
CNTRL STATES IN RESPONSE TO A NRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING SE INTO
THE UPR MS VLY. IN THE WEAKER SRN BRANCH...WATER VAPOR DATA SHOW
SEVERAL IMPULSES OVER THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS POISED TO CONTINUE ESE
ACROSS THE SRN PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT...WHILE STRONGER DOWNSTREAM
DISTURBANCE THAT AFFECTED THE REGION YESTERDAY DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE
LWR MS VLY/GULF CST STATES.

IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S UPR TROUGH...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN
LEFT SEASONABLY MOIST OVER PARTS OF KS AND WRN MO S/SW INTO MUCH OF
OK AND TX. THIS MOISTURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH AMPLE SFC
HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG LEFTOVER SFC BOUNDARIES/FRONTAL
SEGMENTS...AND MODEST MID-LVL COOLING/ASCENT BENEATH THE SRN STREAM
JET LIKELY WILL YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY INTO TNGT.

...SRN/CNTRL PLNS TODAY/TNGT...
HAND ANALYSIS OF LATEST SFC DATA REVEALS NUMEROUS WIND SHIFT
LINES...FRONTAL SEGMENTS...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLNS...ALL S AND E OF MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT NOW OVER MN
AND NRN NEB. OF THE MANY MESOSCALE SFC FEATURES PRESENT...THE ONES
THAT MAY HAVE THE GREATEST INFLUENCE ON DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORM
DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE /1/ NNE-SSW FRONT/TROUGH ATTM EXTENDING FROM ERN
NEB TO THE TX PANHANDLE.../2/ QSTNRY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
ERN/SRN OK INTO NE TX...AND /3/ OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SE ACROSS E
CNTRL OK. GIVEN EXISTING WNWLY DEEP FLOW OVER REGION...AND EXPECTED
AMPLIFICATION OF NRN STREAM TROUGH...EXPECT THAT ALL OF THE SFC
FEATURES WILL ADVANCE GENERALLY SEWD WITH TIME...SERVING AS AXES OF
LOW-LVL ASCENT AND POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

LOW AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DEEP EML ACROSS SLGT RISK
REGION...AS WELL SHOWN IN MORNING RAOBS AT DDC...OUN...AND FWD.
COUPLED WITH SEASONABLY MOIST LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT /AVERAGE SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 50S F AND PW AROUND 1 INCH/...UNIMPEDED SFC
HEATING SHOULD BOOST MUCAPE TO AOA 2000 J/KG ACROSS N TX AND SRN/ERN
OK...WITH VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG OVER ERN KS/FAR WRN MO.
THE OVERALL SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD
STORMS ALONG THE VARIOUS WIND SHIFT LINES/SFC BOUNDARIES...WITH THE
STRONG UPDRAFTS AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD-LAYER FLOW ONCE
AGAIN PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LVL STORM ROTATION/LARGE HAIL
DESPITE MODEST UPR-LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT.

WHILE SEVERAL AREAS OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY EVOLVE
THIS AFTN FROM KS S/SSW INTO OK...THE GREATEST OVERALL SVR THREAT
THROUGH 12Z SUN MAY END UP FOCUSING A BIT FARTHER S...NEAR THE RED
RVR AND ACROSS N TX TO THE ARKLATEX...WHERE IT APPEARS THAT DEEPER
FRONTAL ZONE/WIND SHIFT ULTIMATELY WILL SET UP. THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COUPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS...POSSIBLY
IN THE FORM OF AN MCS OR TWO...LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUN.

...CNTRL HI PLNS LATE AFTN INTO TNGT...
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM UPR IMPULSE...AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG LEAD COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT PRECEDING IT...MAY
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS
AFTN OVER SW NEB/NE CO. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE SSE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TNGT INTO WRN/NRN KS. WHILE MUCAPE WILL BE
LIMITED BY SCANT MOISTURE...APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY WILL BE PRESENT
GIVEN STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. THUS...SOME OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BECOME CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS DESPITE
COMPARATIVELY MODEST LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0342
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302153Z - 302330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK WITH AN ISOLATED
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DRY MICROBURSTS.

DISCUSSION...WITHIN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...SEVERAL SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES APPEAR PRESENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SMALL CBS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG ONE OF THESE BOUNDARIES ACROSS COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY
TX INTO BECKHAM COUNTY OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE WRN FRINGE OF
THE SRN PLAINS MOIST AXIS /CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
SURFACE DEW POINTS/ AND WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION SHOULD DEVELOP INTO
A FEW TSTMS SOON. STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
/MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS/ LIES 2-3 COUNTIES SW OF
THIS TROUGH...ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER SUBTLE TROUGH
EXTENDING NEWD INTO CNTRL OK. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT
MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY MARGINAL SPATIALLY AND IN AMPLITUDE...WHICH
MIGHT MITIGATE A WW ISSUANCE.

..GRAMS/MEAD.. 03/30/2013

[venture]

One severe storm out there right now. More developing.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
549 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 630 PM CDT


* AT 543 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED IN THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS WILDLIFE
REFUGE...ABOUT 7 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MEERS...AND MOVING EAST
AT 5 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MEDICINE PARK AND MEERS.

[venture]

New Watch is up...



Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (5%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Mod (30%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	High (70%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (70%)

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 68
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 610 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DURANT OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 66...WW 67...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE OVER SWRN AND S-CNTRL OK WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
TO AROUND 80 F. MODEL-DERIVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PRESENCE
OF A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 35-40 KT OF DEEP NWLY
SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL /SOME EXCEEDING TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER/ AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. EXPECT MATURE STORMS TO MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER
INTO N-CNTRL TX LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32020.

[Anonymous.]

Supercells popping up everywhere now.

[venture]

Looks like the Comanche Co storm is splitting to the north...which it just did on the last scan.

[venture]

Warning for North cell...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 700 PM CDT


* AT 620 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF MEERS...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

Warning for South...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 700 PM CDT


* AT 620 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN RANGE OF FORT SILL
JUST NORTH OF CACHE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS LAWTON.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

[venture]

Additional storms are popping up in Northern Seminole County, Garvin County, and Beckham. The cells out far west are having trouble getting established at all, but those closer to Central OK are the ones to watch.

[Plutonic Panda]

Looks like the Comanche Co storm is splitting to the north...which it just did on the last scan.

What kind of radar is that? That's awesome!

[venture]

What kind of radar is that? That's awesome!

GR2Analyst Main Page

[venture]

Hail size increasing on the storm near Prague.

[venture]

And here is the new warning for it.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
639 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN OKFUSKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 745 PM CDT


* AT 636 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF PADEN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.


STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...


* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PADEN...
BOLEY...CASTLE...BEARDEN...OKEMAH AND CLEARVIEW.


THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 212 AND 229.

[venture]

Expected this...watch extension to account for new cells.

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 68
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

OKC005-015-029-051-063-123-125-133-310600-
/O.EXA.KOUN.SV.A.0068.000000T0000Z-130331T0600Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 68 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY


IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

GRADY POTTAWATOMIE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

PONTOTOC SEMINOLE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

ATOKA COAL HUGHES

IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

CADDO

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ADA...ANADARKO...ATOKA...CHICKASHA...COALGATE ...HOLDENVILLE...SEMINOLE AND SHAWNEE.

[venture]

Northern Seminole County Warning...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
652 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 715 PM CDT


* AT 648 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOLEY...AND
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROMWELL.

[venture]

Storm just SE of Shawnee increasing rapidly...this is the storm in the lower right of the image.

[venture]

The warning

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
705 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
CENTRAL SEMINOLE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 745 PM CDT


* AT 702 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR EARLSBORO...AND MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

[venture]

New cell going up to the SW of Minco. Developing hail core and much of the precip is still elevated.

[venture]

Storm in Caddo Co should be severe soon. It is still growing, hail core was dumped not long ago but should cycle back up as it continues to grow. Movement is very slow ESE.

EDIT UPDATE: Added imagine showing the top starting to go back up again.

[venture]

Estimated hail size is now up to 1.44" and warning is now out...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 830 PM CDT


* AT 734 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MINCO...AND
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TUTTLE...MINCO...AMBER AND POCASSET.

[venture]

View from the north look back towards Chickasha. Showing a very large elevated hail core that will eventually come down.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 310037Z - 310130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF COVERAGE
INCREASES.

DISCUSSION...STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY BEEN NOTED NORTH
OF TUL...IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KTS. COVERAGE HAS BEEN
SPARSE IN NERN OK THUS FAR AS FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT IS
NEGLIGIBLE...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK SFC LOW NEAR TUL AND A REMNANT BOUNDARY ORIENTED
N/S ALONG A OKM-TUL-BVO LINE...AS WELL AS ALONG A WNW/ENE ORIENTED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH OUT OF SERN KS.

WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK...BACKED FLOW TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES IS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS
TO SOME EXTENT AND WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH ANY DEEP SUSTAINED
CONVECTION. GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIALLY
FAVORABLE STORM MODE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF COVERAGE OF
STORMS INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA...WW ISSUANCE WILL BE CONSIDERED.

..DEAN/MEAD.. 03/31/2013

[venture]

New storm going up between Noble and Slaughterville. Very elevated right now.