Oklahoma Weather Discussion - February/March 2013

[Dubya61]

So, aside from the twitterverse, where is Aaron Tuttle, nowadays?

[Andrew4OU]

So, aside from the twitterverse, where is Aaron Tuttle, nowadays?

He's been working at the FAA since he left KOCO.

[ou48A]

Hopefully, the storm part will pan out regardless of what form the liquid falls in. March 9th is pushing it for winter weather. A couple of degrees higher and their wouldn't have been a blizzard out west yesterday.

I agree with you.

March can be a dry month, we need to keep the storms systems rolling in every few days.
Some of the worst western Oklahoma/ Kansas/ Panhandles blizzards have occurred in late March.

[OKCisOK4me]

I just created this:

[MonkeesFan]

Nice weather today!

[ou48A]

https://www.facebook.com/ATsFans

(BTW the long range experimental model I glance at calls for an identical winter storm, same track/outcome/everything on Sunday the 10th. The odds of this actually happening have got to be astronomical)

[Plutonic Panda]

I just created this:

OMG!!!! Can I post this on my Facebook? I didn't just want to steal it and post it. lol

[venture]

https://www.facebook.com/ATsFans

(BTW the long range experimental model I glance at calls for an identical winter storm, same track/outcome/everything on Sunday the 10th. The odds of this actually happening have got to be astronomical)

18Z GFS moves the system through early on the 9th. Dry West and Central, some light precip all East...mainly rain as well. So it is what it is. We've been over this many times before on these long range outlooks. They'll change 39 times before it actually happens. Zero consistency with the models = me not really caring too much right now.

[bluedogok]

There was a brutal patch of dry air just over OKC. Even to the east of us they were getting winter precep. In this case and to the untrained eye, it looked like just bad luck. That little pocket of no-precip hung out on a bullseye over OKC for a very long time.

For several years in Austin it seemed like the had a high pressure area centered on the Austin area, it seemed every storm either went north of our dome from Waco north or south around San Antonio. That was why the droughts and extreme temps kept going for months with no end in sight.

We have had some more snow today, out here in SE Aurora we have had quite a bit more than what we had around the office in Denver.

[venture]

Since attention was brought to March 9th, I wanted to share the 00Z GFS run tonight. Right now, no snow...but could be a good amount of rain. Bulls-eye for the precip is right over Norman. Upper air profiles are way too warm, so it won't even be borderline if we go by this. Again, a lot of this is meaningless, but there is something coming through that weekend so we just need to watch it.

[RadicalModerate]

that graph bears an ominous resemblance to a tornado . . .

[kelroy55]

and of course the 9th is a Saturday....

[OkieHornet]

that graph bears an ominous resemblance to a tornado . . .

well, it is from twisterdata.com ;–)

[damonsmuz]

Let's call it what it is, while something could happen, we're talking 240 hours out from now... ensemble means are scattered around ..as they should be this far out...

[venture]

Let's call it what it is, while something could happen, we're talking 240 hours out from now... ensemble means are scattered around ..as they should be this far out...

Indeed. Which is why we always restate anything that far out is pretty worthless to put much weight behind. Its nice to watch trends to see how things evolve, but right now nothing to get excited about.

[OKCisOK4me]

OMG!!!! Can I post this on my Facebook? I didn't just want to steal it and post it. lol

Go for it, lol.

[ou48A]

Indeed. Which is why we always restate anything that far out is pretty worthless to put much weight behind. Its nice to watch trends to see how things evolve, but right now nothing to get excited about.

I don’t put any weight behind the AT prediction other than to watch the time space for activity.
However I do find fun in speculating about what something like this might or might not do.
Anyone with a brain knows not to take a forecast this far out with anything but a grain of salt and I know you know that.

[ou48A]

Mike Morgan KFOR TV 4 Just indicated that we could have a heavy precipitation storm on or about March 9 and 10th and that we may not have cold enough weather in OKC..... for a lot of snow?

Great news since we still need a lot more moisture

[RadicalModerate]

Mike Morgan KFOR TV 4 Just indicated that . . .
Great news since we still need a lot more moisture

. . . and don't his suits look great? I don't wear a tie but he sure can pick some nice ones.

[Easy180]

Speaking of long range forecasts The Weather Channel has us colder than average in March and warmer than average in April and May

[RadicalModerate]

I will have to consult my current Farmer's Almanac to establish the veracity here . . . maybe first thing tomorrow morning.

btw, OKCisOK4me: the Blizzard Survival Graphic, above, is GENIUS. thanks for implied permission to use it for non prophet/profit purposes.(OKCisOk4me)
(it makes me laugh every time i look at it. and that is not a bad thing. yet. =)

[ou48A]

The Winter Storm of February 24-26. 2013


Synopsis


For the third consecutive week, a major winter storm affected the southern Plains with widespread snowfall on February 24-26. An upper level storm system dove southeast through the Great Basin into New Mexico, then intensified rapidly as it lifted east-northeast through West Texas and the Red River Valley. Before any wintry precipitation fell, a few severe thunderstorms developed over southwest Oklahoma along a strong cold front. However, behind this front, very cold air allowed liquid precipitation to change over to snow and sleet by Sunday evening. The strength of this storm allowed it to produce significantly more wind than the ones which struck earlier in the month, leading to blizzard conditions in parts of northern and western Oklahoma.

A strong cold front pushed through the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles on the afternoon and evening of February 24, reaching into far western Oklahoma by midnight. Heavy snowfall developed behind the front, then gradually spread eastward overnight as temperatures fell to near or below freezing across western and northern Oklahoma. By early afternoon on February 25, moderate to heavy snow was occurring over most areas northwest of a line from Hollis to Kingfisher. Very heavy snowbands and occasional thundersnow led to significant snow accumulations over a large part of northwest Oklahoma. Several areas saw snowfall in excess of 15 inches, and when combined with the snow that was already present from the winter storm a few days before, snow depths of up to 25 inches were reported in localized areas. Strong and gusty winds led to snow drifts up to 5 to 8 feet in depth, shutting down many highways and secondary roads in western Oklahoma.

The heavy wet nature of the snow caused some structural damage at Alva, Cherokee, and Woodward. Widespread power outages were reported due to snow-covered power lines and downed trees and tree limbs. The rain-snow line hovered near the I-44 corridor and Oklahoma City metro area for much of the afternoon, with many areas to the east only changing to snow after sunset as the event was winding down. The snow gradually tapered off from west to east during the late afternoon and evening, with most of the accumulating snow in central Oklahoma ending by midnight.

[RadicalModerate]

That is a better, and more exciting, report of observed current events than most of the coverage of the most recent NASCAR event in Daytona.
Thank You! (really! it was a lot closer to home!)

[venture]

So upcoming weather...

Tomorrow looks like some very light rain/snow in the area...roughly western half of the state. Hardly any accumulation of anything, so zero to get excited about.

The March 9th timeframe continues to show a pretty good system coming through. Rain amounts are down a bunch from what they were, but doesn't really matter right now. This going to keep changing a lot, but want to keep updating it while it keeps showing up.

March 9th - through 6AM: Light (SE) to moderate (NW) rain over the state. NW could be mixing with some snow.
March 9th - through 6PM: Light (NW) to Moderate (Central) precip west of I-35. Moderate to Heavy (East) precip east of I-35. Central and West could see a change over to some winter precip, but looks pretty marginal right now.
March 10th - through 6AM: Light precip far South and SE OK, dry everywhere else.

Total QPF looks like...

[Plutonic Panda]

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/pdfs/ok_dm.pdf The updated drought situation. This moisture really helped. It was a bummer we didn't get a decent snowstorm (but we are in a subtropical climate ). Anyways this storm really put dent in the drought.

From Nick Bender's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...type=1&theater