May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

[C_M_25]

HRRR hinting that most, if not all of the storms, will dissipate before making it to okc. Pretty crazy if that happens given what the thinking was last week.

I know we have a stormy pattern all week, but this spring has been very strange. Hit the lake this past weekend, and the water was colder for the time of year than anytime I can remember. Jumping in without first testing the water didn't work out well...lol. Things kinda....disappeared. It seems like this spring has been very quiet. That's not even with respect to tornadoes. Even simple thunderstorms have been seemingly sparse. Be it the track or timing of these systems, or even maybe the crazy winter we had, it has been an unusual spring....

[kukblue1]

HRRR hinting that most, if not all of the storms, will dissipate before making it to okc. Pretty crazy if that happens given what the thinking was last week.

I know we have a stormy pattern all week, but this spring has been very strange. Hit the lake this past weekend, and the water was colder for the time of year than anytime I can remember. Jumping in without first testing the water didn't work out well...lol. Things kinda....disappeared. It seems like this spring has been very quiet. That's not even with respect to tornadoes. Even simple thunderstorms have been seemingly sparse. Be it the track or timing of these systems, or even maybe the crazy winter we had, it has been an unusual spring....

Yeah a lot changed in a week but we won't go there and there isn't really anything jumping out for the rest of the month right now either. Wednesday evening in far Western Oklahoma and the Instability does increase middle of next week so we will have to see how all that pans out but nothing is jumping off the page as of now.

[SEMIweather]

HRRR hinting that most, if not all of the storms, will dissipate before making it to okc. Pretty crazy if that happens given what the thinking was last week.

I know we have a stormy pattern all week, but this spring has been very strange. Hit the lake this past weekend, and the water was colder for the time of year than anytime I can remember. Jumping in without first testing the water didn't work out well...lol. Things kinda....disappeared. It seems like this spring has been very quiet. That's not even with respect to tornadoes. Even simple thunderstorms have been seemingly sparse. Be it the track or timing of these systems, or even maybe the crazy winter we had, it has been an unusual spring....

This has already been the latest OKC has ever gone without a high temperature above 83 degrees (previous record was May 15th), and we stand a decent chance of adding at least another week on to that.

And I agree, really no longer seeing too much of a heavy rain threat over the next 24-36 hours. Things can always change, but strong signals for the main focus to be well down into Central Texas.

[kukblue1]

Wow the last two runs of the HRRR show only scattered and no squall line coming into the metro now. New Mesoscale Discussion at 7pm says storms in Texas are moving East.

[kukblue1]

Far Western Oklahoma and I mean Far Western Oklahoma could have a slight Tornado Risk Wednesday Evening as the low pressure finally moves off to the Northeast. Texas Panhandle still looks better but might creep into Oklahoma. Other than that some showers/storms might form North of the Metro and move up into Kansas. Nothing to get excited about for today.

[Pete]

Holy cow, we went from flash flood watches and likely inches and inches of rain over the next week to now the forecast is showing almost nothing.

[C_M_25]

Holy cow, we went from flash flood watches and likely inches and inches of rain over the next week to now the forecast is showing almost nothing.

No joke! What a bust!! Anybody know what happened? Why did everything fall apart? Did the storm take a bad track or the moisture not really come in?

[kukblue1]

No joke! What a bust!! Anybody know what happened? Why did everything fall apart? Did the storm take a bad track or the moisture not really come in?

Weaker System and main thing was no Jet Stream. If you notice it hasn't been very windy at the surface. It also hasn't been very windy aloft either. Also the storms in Texas has robbed Oklahoma of Moisture. Basically there been no lift and no instability

[SEMIweather]

Texas has been getting hammered with rain by this weather pattern. Central OK has also been in a weird precipitation void over the last two days as most of the rest of the state has picked up some amount of measurable precipitation. But still, this has been a fairly breathtaking bust relative to what the models were showing just a couple of days ago.

I do think we'll have some decent storm chances tomorrow. Will be similar to the popcorn storms that happened in North Central OK this afternoon. Hit or miss coverage, but very heavy rainfall rates for anyone that does get under a storm. Only severe weather threat would be isolated downburst winds. Very similar to what we typically see in terms of storms here in July and August.

[kukblue1]

Texas has been getting hammered with rain by this weather pattern. Central OK has also been in a weird precipitation void over the last two days as most of the rest of the state has picked up some amount of measurable precipitation. But still, this has been a fairly breathtaking bust relative to what the models were showing just a couple of days ago.

I do think we'll have some decent storm chances tomorrow. Will be similar to the popcorn storms that happened in North Central OK this afternoon. Hit or miss coverage, but very heavy rainfall rates for anyone that does get under a storm. Only severe weather threat would be isolated downburst winds. Very similar to what we typically see in terms of storms here in July and August.

I was just getting ready to post that the computer models on the last couple of runs have been showing pop up storms more in the Metro for tomorrow. Today they were in Northern Oklahoma tomorrow they look to be more Central Oklahoma. Far Far western Oklahoma still looks a little interesting late night around midnight. Depending on which model you want to go with. I could maybe see a Thunderstorm warning out that way. Slight risk though.

[BoulderSooner]

pretty good soaking this morning

[C_M_25]

So who wants to run down to Norman and hit the hard reset button on their super computer that calculates out all these models. I checked the HRRR last night and there was no indication of rain this morning. The NAM showed a spotty pop up storm but overall, nothing.

I’m really enjoying the rain this morning but the forecasts on this system have been whack! Again, it’s been a weird spring.

[Pete]

Yes, a nice soaker this morning near Penn Square.

[Outhunder]

Yes, the rain is great, but I'm ready for 90's and sun. And lots of it.

[GoGators]

Yes, the rain is great, but I'm ready for 90's and sun. And lots of it.

My Bermuda grass agrees.

[kukblue1]

So who wants to run down to Norman and hit the hard reset button on their super computer that calculates out all these models. I checked the HRRR last night and there was no indication of rain this morning. The NAM showed a spotty pop up storm but overall, nothing.

I’m really enjoying the rain this morning but the forecasts on this system have been whack! Again, it’s been a weird spring.

I think we rely on Computer models way to much anymore. The movie twister got a lot of things wrong but one thing it got right is when Bill Paxton was holding up the sand and seeing which way the wind was blowing. Back when I was growing up that is how you predicted the weather. You felt the atmosphere and felt what it was doing. You looked at the clouds you smelled the atmosphere. There were no 20 different computer models. Now I think everyone sits behind a computer and just looks at computer models and just goes with it even when it is a week away.

Don't get me wrong I think computer models are a good for day of even day before. I just think it's a combo of actually going outside and checking computer models is lost. I know we send weather balloons up and I get all that but mother nature will always find a way if she wants. Me and a couple friends were talking 4 hours before the big norman hail storm. We were talking about how hazy it was outside and how the sun was coming out and how we felt there was going to be a storm somewhere and bam 4 hours later big storm.

[kukblue1]

Eastern Oklahoma tomorrow could have a small quick spin up tornado risk tomorrow as a compact low moves due North out of Texas. There will be a lot of spin in the atmosphere. Some sunshine out way could increase instability just enough. Low level shear and vorticity will be maximized near/immediately NE of the low.

[Libbymin]

My Bermuda grass agrees.

Between this weirdly cool spring and the extreme weather we had this winter, the grass and plants have had a little bit of a slower time getting going this year.

[kukblue1]

Northeast and Eastern Oklahoma Thursday afternoon slight tornado risk. Very Slight as of now. Payne briefly mentioned it tonight also. HRRR really shows the spin of the low moving up US-75. Nam nest showing storms also now. No means is this a major event and still most likely will need some sun but when profiles look good.

[Anonymous.]

Low, scattered, and unorganized storm chances look to remain in the forecast. Not everyone will see rain everyday, it will much be like the last week where you just need to check the radar before heading out.

Temperatures remain amazing for this time of year. In fact, it looks like temperatures will be warmest end of next week and then cool off considerably for the beginning of June.

Enjoy it, because there will be a time this summer where the death ridge builds and we fall back into drought and temps near 100F.

[Ohwiseone]

Someone send annoymous forecast to the newsstations so they will quit talking about next week already.

[kukblue1]

Someone send annoymous forecast to the newsstations so they will quit talking about next week already.

Oh no your didn't.

[Outhunder]

Low, scattered, and unorganized storm chances look to remain in the forecast. Not everyone will see rain everyday, it will much be like the last week where you just need to check the radar before heading out.

Temperatures remain amazing for this time of year. In fact, it looks like temperatures will be warmest end of next week and then cool off considerably for the beginning of June.

Enjoy it, because there will be a time this summer where the death ridge builds and we fall back into drought and temps near 100F.

Noooooooooooooo

[kukblue1]

https://twitter.com/NWStulsa/status/1395433867495067655 Not OKC but Tulsa area

[midtownokcer]

Low, scattered, and unorganized storm chances look to remain in the forecast. Not everyone will see rain everyday, it will much be like the last week where you just need to check the radar before heading out.

Temperatures remain amazing for this time of year. In fact, it looks like temperatures will be warmest end of next week and then cool off considerably for the beginning of June.

Enjoy it, because there will be a time this summer where the death ridge builds and we fall back into drought and temps near 100F.

Speaking of heat, looks like the east coast is going through an early heat wave this year. 90s up all the way up to Boston within the next week.