March 2021 - General Weather Discussion

[kukblue1]

Two tornadoes warnings so far 1:00 a.m. we have seven severe thunderstorm warnings yeah there was no need to hype this event I watched David at 4:00 and he spent 95% of the time talking about the blizzard for Woodward instead of the storm risk for the overnight hours SMH

[Bunty]

Where is the HYPE. Just watch David Payne at 10 and he pretty much blew it off. KOCO is a 2 on the tornado scale but wasn't putting the fear of god into people like with Saturday event. Good old Aaron Tuttle for the win. https://aarontuttleweather.com/2021/...U6O26HriEcYfcw I don't know is he any good? I never really followed him. Tornado soundings are all over western Oklahoma from midnight until about 2 am.

Nah, I lost respect for him after he put up a map that showed Stillwater was going to get 7.1" of rain, more than anybody else. Instead, Stillwater hardly got a third of an inch. He's no better than the TV weather hypers.

[Bunty]

As of 3:45 am, it looks like Stillwater is going to get some rain. Special weather statement issued for it with no severe alerts. OKC doesn't look like it's going to get as much. Rain is more widespread in Kansas.

[Anonymous.]

OKC is pretty much at the high of the day right now around 8am. We will see strong N winds come rushing in heading into this afternoon. Bringing along mist and some rain showers from the wrap-around. Temperatures will drop into the low 40s and upper 30s overnight. The wind will make it miserable.

Rebound begins tomorrow into the weekend. Next rain chances look to be Tuesday.

[Pete]

Holy heck, we went from 80 degrees yesterday to just now the wind shifting and picking up as we drop well down into the '40s.

Went from early summer back to winter in a flash.

[Bill Robertson]

^
I could have waited to uncover and clean up the Miata!

[SEMIweather]

Classic brief March cold snap with this system. Skies will clear out tomorrow but it will still be chilly with strong NW winds. Friday into the weekend should feel nicer as temperatures rebound but it will still be windy. Next storm system will move through sometime early next week. Models aren't showing much instability and this will likely be a more widespread stratiform rain event with a low threat of strong storms. Hoping that OKC can get some good moisture from this one as we've been running fairly dry over the past couple of months and we still have a month or so until the greenup really starts in earnest and our fire threat begins to decrease.

[kukblue1]

HOLD UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Saturday Evening what is the HRRR trying to show for just west of the Metro on Monday evening? WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The Nam Nest also.
Can't buy into this one just yet as it's also showing a lot of rain Monday Morning so are we going to be able to recover enough? Anyone what to chime in on this? I know SPC was just Marginal for their 3 day risk this morning.

[kukblue1]

Well the tornado threat is not zero for far Southwest Oklahoma down by the Red River. Most computer models are trending towards a Squall line forming and pushing from OKC South. still not too concerned about it but something to keep an eye on

[Anonymous.]

Storms out west will develop into an MCS tonight. Severe potential along leading edge. Hail and wind primary threats, maybe a few spinups along the way. Looks like a solid rain for most of the state. Highest severe chances are south of I-40.

[Anonymous.]

Storms are barely severe entering SW OK now. The rain-cooled air across much of the state will lower severity of the MCS. Expect another 1" of rain to sweep across this evening.

[Plutonic Panda]

It’s going to be interesting to see how/if this affects forecasts

https://tulsaworld.com/news/local/up...cb77c394b.html

[SEMIweather]

I'm continually amazed by the improvements that have been made in short-range modeling over the last decade. The HRRR is a great tool to look at on the day of potential severe weather events.

[Bill Robertson]

It’s going to be interesting to see how/if this affects forecasts

https://tulsaworld.com/news/local/up...cb77c394b.html

I'll buy new technology improving short range forecasting. The problem with long range accuracy is systems out two weeks can follow any one of many possible tracks and I'm not buying that technology can track that until I see it.

[Bill Robertson]

I'm continually amazed by the improvements that have been made in short-range modeling over the last decade. The HRRR is a great tool to look at on the day of potential severe weather events.

Yes! HRRR has become the model to watch when it comes into the time range.

[TheTravellers]

I'll buy new technology improving short range forecasting. The problem with long range accuracy is systems out two weeks can follow any one of many possible tracks and I'm not buying that technology can track that until I see it.

Chaos theory will always make long-term accuracy not completely feasible.

[Outhunder]

Two animated suggestions from my website, until someone can come up with something more impressive. Both are more suitable for desktop, rather than for phone:

Courtesy of weatherunderground.com, no zoom: https://stillwaterweather.com/okcradar

Zoomable: https://stillwaterweather.com/newwxradar

This is exactly what I was looking for. Thanks for sharing.

[Anonymous.]

Cold morning for Wednesday and slight rain chances in the evening as a weak system moves by. Best shot is east of I-35. This system will usher in cooler air from the north. Rebound coming Friday into Saturday with what looks like an amazing weekend.

[SEMIweather]

I am stoked for this weekend. Looks like 70, sunny, and a 90% chance of me drinking a beer on the Angry Scotsman patio after work on Friday.

[Anonymous.]

High fire danger basically statewide today and tomorrow with strong S winds ahead of a front that will cool us off some Tuesday night. Fantastic weather all week. No real rain chances showing up in the next 10.

[C_M_25]

Anybody else feel that it’s been a little too warm and a little too dry so far this spring? I’m loving the warm weather, but we need some moisture.

[SEMIweather]

This weather pattern is very reminiscent of 2011. Hopefully we see a shift before summertime as I would prefer not to repeat the 2+ months of 100+ degree heat that OKC got that summer, lol.

[C_M_25]

This weather pattern is very reminiscent of 2011. Hopefully we see a shift before summertime as I would prefer not to repeat the 2+ months of 100+ degree heat that OKC got that summer, lol.

This is particularly concerning because the next time the long range modes even hint at rain is April 17th. I’m going to have to fire up my sprinklers in April for the first time in a long time.

[SEMIweather]

Yep. Not much to be done about it except wait for a pattern shift, unfortunately. Seems like we are always either entering or exiting a drought in the Southern Plains, and right now definitely feels like we are in the "entering" phase. Very difficult to ever get consistent precipitation in this part of the country.

[BG918]

GFS is showing a storm system coming through the S Plains around 4/12-13 and a larger one (and likely pattern shift to more active weather) around 4/19