General Weather Discussion - May 2016

[Anonymous.]

Giant supercell just north of Stillwater has exploded.

Currently sagging south and east, to nearly stationary.

Watch this storm, as it could go tornado pretty easily right along the boundary up there.

[Anonymous.]

That storm is now TOR warned.

I am in the chat for anyone who wants to partake. This is the only storm in the state at the moment... 2:45pm

[baralheia]

Watching this storm on radar... the circulation tightened up for a bit but it seems to be cycling right now. Overall this storm seems to be a bit disorganized, though.

[baralheia]

Rotation has significantly weakened; as a result, NWS let TOR warning expire. Storm is now SVR warned through 4pm, with up to 2" hail expected per @NWSNorman on Twitter

[shavethewhales]

I'm watching the newson6 stream now, and the rotation on this storm keeps extending downwards but just barely stops short of forming an actual tornado. Looks like glencoe is just barely going to miss getting hit.

[Bunty]

Interesting, though, how an isolated severe storm formed to the north of Stillwater around 2 PM and has slowly been moving SE. Fortunately, main area of concern for possible tornadoes is in the countryside well to the east of Stillwater at Highway 51 and 18.

[shavethewhales]

Now that it's near Bristow it's trying to drop another funnel, but just can't quite do it. I'm praying this thing will finally go away soon. A lot of people really dodged a bullet with this storm already, but who knows what will happen in the next hour.

[Bunty]

Interesting, though, how an isolated severe storm formed to the north of Stillwater around 2 PM and has slowly been moving SE. Fortunately, main area of concern for possible tornadoes is in the countryside well to the east of Stillwater at Highway 51 and 18.

The rain and a little small hail stopped as the storm split apart over Stillwater. So none of this as much as 2 to 4 in. rains in Stillwater as Mike Morgan was excited about. Now two storms, the west one threatened Stillwater with more severe weather, but it quickly dissipated before arrival, allowing the sun to come out. But the part east of Stillwater kept very strong with tornado warnings having to be issued in Creek County.

[John1744]

West Kansas just got hammered tonight.

[bchris02]

Anything to worry about with these storms going up over the metro right now, or are these just garden variety thunderstorms?

[bchris02]

So with today over with and most forecasts for tomorrow betting on the cap holding, what are we looking at for Thursday and Friday, specifically the OKC area?

[Anonymous.]

There is all sorts of strange outflow boundaries draped across the state today. Could have one try and force off some cells later this afternoon - Even the dryline could spark off a couple. Otherwise, cap will be strong. Anything that develops will be like yesterday and likely go severe and rotating quickly.

All modes possible Thursday in OKC. I would emphasize hail.

[Bobby821]

There is all sorts of strange outflow boundaries draped across the state today. Could have one try and force off some cells later this afternoon - Even the dryline could spark off a couple. Otherwise, cap will be strong. Anything that develops will be like yesterday and likely go severe and rotating quickly.

All modes possible Thursday in OKC. I would emphasize hail.

Looking at SPC it would appear that not much is expected for the OKC area for Thursday we are not even in the enhanced risk area. and as for Friday we have been downgraded to a lowly Marginal risk with the Slight risk pushed all the way down to SE Oklahoma. Looks like the OKC area will miss out on this storm system the way things are looking/going.

[jn1780]

Looking at SPC it would appear that not much is expected for the OKC area for Thursday we are not even in the enhanced risk area. and as for Friday we have been downgraded to a lowly Marginal risk with the Slight risk pushed all the way down to SE Oklahoma. Looks like the OKC area will miss out on this storm system the way things are looking/going.

What has been said countless times before, storms don't care what the color of the map is. That Stillwater storm was pretty impressive and that was far away from the enhanced risk area. The storms that fired in Edmond and moved off to the north were pretty rowdy also. The enhanced risk for tomorrow is pretty close to the metro area, but the tornado risk is still low. We are in a early summer and late spring severe weather pattern with little shear but lots of energy so hail, rain, lighting, and wind are higher.

[bchris02]

Looking at SPC it would appear that not much is expected for the OKC area for Thursday we are not even in the enhanced risk area. and as for Friday we have been downgraded to a lowly Marginal risk with the Slight risk pushed all the way down to SE Oklahoma. Looks like the OKC area will miss out on this storm system the way things are looking/going.

This goes with what Mike Morgan has been predicting all week. He has not thought Friday would be a big deal. Today could be bad if anything breaks the cap. If not, tomorrow is central OK's highest chance at seeing severe activity. Next week, as we move into June, the jet stream weakens so that should lower the tornado risk even though the pattern looks to remain active.

[Bobby821]

Here is the latest text from SPC concerning our area tomorrow. what does this mean for us here in the metro area? Storms going to puny out before getting here again or are we going to get some action here in the metro finally tomorrow?

...CNTRL KS SWD INTO WRN OK...
HEATING AND A RAPID NWD TRANSPORT OF UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD
TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY NEAR THE DRYLINE S OF THE SFC LOW AS
UPPER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN. HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS BY 21-00Z...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
WHILE STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THIS AREA...SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE IS CONDITIONALLY LIKELY INCLUDING TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL. SOME BACKING OF THE WINDS IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB...BUT HODOGRAPHS REMAIN QUITE SUFFICIENT.

[SoonerDave]

Here is the latest text from SPC concerning our area tomorrow. what does this mean for us here in the metro area? Storms going to puny out before getting here again or are we going to get some action here in the metro finally tomorrow?

...CNTRL KS SWD INTO WRN OK...
HEATING AND A RAPID NWD TRANSPORT OF UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD
TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY NEAR THE DRYLINE S OF THE SFC LOW AS
UPPER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN. HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS BY 21-00Z...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
WHILE STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THIS AREA...SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE IS CONDITIONALLY LIKELY INCLUDING TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL. SOME BACKING OF THE WINDS IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB...BUT HODOGRAPHS REMAIN QUITE SUFFICIENT.

Seems to me the focus of attention there is *really* southern Kansas, but to a somewhat lesser extent, NW Oklahoma. I think what they're trying to say, essentially, is that the entire area is *subject* to severe weather, and if it *gets* going, it could be pretty strong, but the NW OK region is - from a forecast perspective - the most likely region where these things could really crank up. The low is focused in that mid-KS area, so that combined with the moisture flowing in is the obvious focal point for storms to really get going tomorrow. That threat diminishes as you get farther away from the low (and that's an oversimplification, but for the sake of this discussion its reasonable).

I wouldn't *discount* the possibility of storms here in central OK, but I think the forecasters are saying pay *special* attention to those areas north and west. Considering that as we drew closer to Thursday the 30% Enh region that was present Monday has shifted west and north, it would suggest to me that's also part of why the SPC has written that forecast as they have.

Bottom line? just keep an ear open and pay attention to what's going on. Heck, as the day progresses, check out where the chasers are going My bet is the KS area...

[Anonymous.]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL OK THROUGH ECNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251947Z - 252145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM
NCNTRL OK TO ECNTRL KS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A SFC LOW IN
WCNTRL KS SWWD THROUGH WRN OK AND NWRN TX. EAST OF DRYLINE A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM CNTRL KS SWD INTO NCNTRL OK...AND THIS BOUNDARY
INTERSECTS THE NRN PORTION OF AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM SRN AR THROUGH CNTRL AND NCNTRL OK. E-W
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE SFC LOW IN WCNTRL KS ENEWD
THROUGH NCNTRL KS.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE EML PLUME HAS ADVECTED ABOVE A
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE.
HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE STILL APPEARS CAPPED IN THIS REGION JUDGING BY
THE CHARACTER OF THE LOW CLOUDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER NCNTRL OK INTO SCNTRL KS BY 22Z AT THE INTERSECTION OF
THERMAL/MOIST AXIS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAKLY CONVERGENT
TROUGH/DRYLINE. GIVEN LINGERING CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EML PLUME AND
PRESENCE OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL. A WINDOW WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY AS
THE LLJ STRENGTHENS DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES.

..DIAL/HART.. 05/25/2016

[Bobby821]

Here is the latest thinking from NWS for tomorrow...

The more likely timing for thunderstorms developing just ahead of
the dryline would be Thursday afternoon. For now, latest NAM
guidance places a weak inversion cap across far northern Oklahoma,
leaving everything to the south un-capped and prime for convection
breaking out. WRF guidance suggesting convection beginning across
western Oklahoma early afternoon, and advance eastward to near
I-35 by late afternoon as we continue to heat. With mu CAPE values
near 4000 j/kg, large damaging hail up to baseballs and severe
wind gusts would be possible under these storm cells. By late
Thursday into Friday, an advancing upper low across the southern
high plains will shift into western Kansas, moving our storms into
southeast Oklahoma toward the early morning hours of Saturday. As
Saturday progresses, the dryline should push across our area and
start drying us out.

In the extended, sfc moisture will make a quick return across our
area beginning Sunday and into next week. A series of shortwave
troughs digging through will reintroduce low pops through day 7.
For now, both GFS and ECMWF keep us quite wet into next week.

[Anonymous.]

HRRR showing supercells developing in W OK in the next few hours. It tends to overestimate cap-breakthrough, but keep an eye out if you see large anvils draped across C OK from W OK at sunset.

[bchris02]

The risk area has been redrawn for tomorrow pushing things a little farther north and west.

As long as things don't change, it looks like the OKC metro could get through this week without serious impact *knocks on wood*.

[ShadowStrings]

Looked like my parents' house was going to take a direct hit tonight until the tornado fizzled out about a mile away. Closer call than I would like!

[SoonerDave]

Today looks like a really tricky setup. Starting out, we have storms coming up into SC/SE Oklahoma from Texas, which always does fun things to forecasts insofar as they "beat up" the atmosphere and possibly limit later redevelopment, or at a minimum make location of such redevelopment very difficult to pinpoint depending on where things like outflow boundaries end up. The surface low is still centered in the NE/KS area, and the focus for the higher end severe stuff remains in that area - however, no one has to see a map to know the air is just oppressively thick with humidity and warmth, and that means there's a basic ingredient for thunderstorms no matter what the map says.

Even the SPC folks are struggling with the phrasing on their outlook. In effect, they're pointing out that lots of ingredients for what they call "vigorous thunderstorms" are present, but the timing and location for any one batch are very difficult to pinpoint due to all the other storms and convection ongoing in the area. They're focused on the KS and W TX areas in that enhanced region, but I think they are trying to caution generally that storms *anywhere* in this region could fire and get big in a hurry. Tornado risk in broader OK appears lower, hail risk higher.

Best advice? Just keep aware of what's going on in general today. Nailing down specifics on anything is really dicey for today.

[Anonymous.]

Storms firing up down in SW OK, will spread over C OK today. If this convection gets moved out and clearing takes place behind it (looks likely at this time), we will have a round of dryline action fire up later tonight.

Main threats with this current wave is heavy rain, we are all aware by now that there is tropical moisture in place, and the rain is very heavy with it.

[Roger S]

Storms firing up down in SW OK, will spread over C OK today. If this convection gets moved out and clearing takes place behind it (looks likely at this time), we will have a round of dryline action fire up later tonight.

Main threats with this current wave is heavy rain, we are all aware by now that there is tropical moisture in place, and the rain is very heavy with it.

Man.... Why do you have to rain on my golf parade like this?

I tossed the clubs in the car but I really didn't have much hope of getting to use them today.... lol