General Weather Discussion - November, 2015

[bchris02]

Any bread and milk in the long range forecast?

[Anonymous.]

GFS hinting at a classic southern stream winter storm coming through around December 3rd.

[Uptowner]

Anyone see the news that October was, globally, the warmest month relative to to its average temperature ever recorded? Also the warmest October ever recorded, but that first fact, yikes.

[LakeEffect]

Anyone see the news that October was, globally, the warmest month relative to to its average temperature ever recorded? Also the warmest October ever recorded, but that first fact, yikes.

Should probably move this to the Climate Change thread, since this is the November weather thread...

[Uptowner]

Well it's been a pretty warm November it snowed twice this time last year. The report just came out yesterday.

[SoonerDave]

The 10-day GFS is looking very interesting, particularly as it starts to include this possibility of cold, wet, wintery weather over the broader Thanksgiving weekend.

Thanksgiving Day itself right now, particularly into the afternoon/early evening, stands a good chance of being pretty soggy at least in the C/SE part of the state as the model run looks right now, with the colder weather trying to push in behind it on Friday and over the weekend. For the weekend, the model right now tends to show a mass of precip forming Saturday along and E/S of a roughly I-44 line, with the colder airmass dancing tantalizingly south toward roughly the I-40 region. Obviously, relying on an exact placement of an airmass or precipitation region a week out is specious, but right now the takeaway is that there does exist the possibility of at-or-near freezing temps and precipitation for the OU-OSU game up in Stillwater.

Obviously if that model changes in terms of how far south the freezing airmass pushes, or where/if any precip forms, the outlook can change, but the takeaway for now is winter weather is possible next weekend.

Stay tuned for later refinements as the week progresses.

[Anonymous.]

^spot on^

This is the GFS he is speaking of, we will have better picture in NAM window heading into the week. Latest GFS shows 8+inches of snow along and south of I-44 heading into weekend after Thanksgiving.

Bottomline, colder weather is coming and storm systems are lining up out in the Pacific.

[Bobby821]

Are you referring to the weekend of Nov 28-29th or the weekend of Dec 5-6th?

^spot on^

This is the GFS he is speaking of, we will have better picture in NAM window heading into the week. Latest GFS shows 8+inches of snow along and south of I-44 heading into weekend after Thanksgiving.

Bottomline, colder weather is coming and storm systems are lining up out in the Pacific.

[Anonymous.]

28-29.

[SoonerDave]

Well, just as was noted on the last post, each model run can change a few things.

Current GFS keeps 60's and a fairly sustained rain pattern in most of OK for Thanksgiving day, with a big cold front sweeping through sometime overnight Thursday/early Friday and pushing the rain out along with it. Behind the front, Friday into the weekend looks like a setup for a batch of really cold (as in sustained sub-freezing) weather, but the precipitation that appeared in the prior runs is now pushed well SE of the state.

Looks like the chances for an Ice Bowl II between OU and OSU on Saturday have dropped considerably with the moisture being pushed out, but man, it's likely to be a cold one!!!

[OKCisOK4me]

Of note... My Wunderground weather app is usually spot on and the forecast on there for this coming weekend is 70 and 60 percents chances of snow SAT and SUN.

Of course, as stated, much can change in a week's time...

[SoonerDave]

The one constant among these GFS runs is that...they're just not constant, at least going into next weekend. It seems the run-to-run variability right now is pretty high, meaning its hard to put a great deal of stock in any of these solutions given all the different timing and other variables at this point. But here's what the 10-day GFS is showing for the holiday weekend:

Thursday - Wet, possibly even stormy day as a front approaches a fairly moist, mild airmass across OK, with showers and thunderstorms developing in advance of the front Thursday arfternoon/evening roughly along the I-44 corridor from about Lawton to Tulsa. The front pushes through and brings in drier, colder air on Friday

Friday - Rain in the E/SE part of the state, becoming more generally dry and much colder, with temperatures generally *above* freezing. The key here, as it was earlier in the week, is in just how far the cold air mass migrates south. Right now, it looks like the below-freezing line stays north of Oklahoma. Again, though this has changed some over the last couple days, so you have to be careful reading it.

Saturday and Sunday - The weekend looks to be cold and dreary, but the map right now shows it to generally be at or above freezing. The cold airmass begins to migrate more northeasterly late Sunday. The model shows rain in SE OK early Saturday, then a broader mass of general precipitation from west-central Mexico all the way up to north-central OK Saturday evening, with rain in the SE 2/3 of the state on Sunday morning. This particular run shows only lighter precipitation near the Stillwater area around Bedlam along with at-or-slightly-above freezing temps, so the possibility of "winter precip" exists - but it's far from a sure thing at this point.

The most important thing to take away from these runs, given that they've changed quite a bit over the last few runs, is that there are still a great many variables in play and relying on the *details* of these forecasts so many days in advance is just not advisable. The runs, at this point, do consistently show rain for Thanskgiving day/afternoon. Beyond that, however, they just show a wave of cold air coming in starting Friday, along with some precipitation Saturday and Sunday. The volume and type of precipitation is largely a function of just how far south that cold airmass migrates along with it.

[Anonymous.]

Okay I have been out of town and just got back.

Looking at models this morning.

GFS and NAM are close in-line: Heavy rain/storms Thursday afternoon into the night in pretty much the entire state (sweeping NW to SE). As the low ejects out of the rockies, a shot of colder air will be brought with it. However, it looks like the atmosphere will be too moisture-rich to get temps to fall below freezing for most of OK. Extreme NW OK and the pandhandle looks like the best bet for frozen precip. So with the main low coming out of the west, another round of heavy precip. looks likely. So think rain and 40F for C OK, essentially miserable.

Black Friday (weekend) shoppers will likely be questioned thoroughly if the deal is worth it. It will be a good time to eat leftover food and watch football inside though. Maybe get festive early and put a holiday tree up.

I will keep this updated as the week progresses.

[Plutonic Panda]

2015 still a contender for wettest year ever for Oklahoma City | Oklahoma City - OKC - KOCO.com

[Anonymous.]

Well if this happens over the next 5 days, it will certainly be close.

[Anonymous.]

WSWatch issued:

[Bunty]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

Areas affected: Alfalfa; Atoka; Beckham; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Ellis; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Harper; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Major; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Wash ita; Woods; Woodward

Message summary: ...heavy rainfall...freezing rain...and sleet expected thursday through saturday...

A strong storm system and cold front will begin to impact the region beginning thanksgiving day. Rainfall chances will increase by midday thursday across northern and western oklahoma...and then spread over the rest of the region by thursday evening. By late thursday night and early friday morning...heavy rainfall will be possible along and south of the i44 corridor. Some locations across central and southeast oklahoma could receive over 3 inches of rainfall by sunrise friday morning. At least moderate rainfall will continue south of i40 friday through saturday. Localized flash flooding and river flooding will be possible this weekend. In addition to heavy rainfall...freezing rain and sleet will develop across portions of northwestern oklahoma as early as thursday night. Freezing rain chances will then increase late friday through early saturday across portions of northern...central and western oklahoma...and western north texas. It unclear at this time how much ice accumulation will occur. However...some locations across northwestern and western oklahoma could receive over one quarter inch of ice total. Higher ice amounts may accumulate on trees...powerlines...and other elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses. If you are traveling anywhere across oklahoma or texas this weekend...be sure to monitor the latest forecasts...watches and warnings at National Weather Service Forecast Office - Norman, Oklahoma.

[OKCisOK4me]

I'm just interested in early SAT morning. Gotta be to work around 4:15am. Hoping the metro highways will be decent.

[Anonymous.]

Models trending towards colder temps currently. NAM paints an ugly picture in SW OK with decent ice accumulations. C OK is right on the nose of the cold air, could be a scenario of NW sides being below 32F and SE sides being closer to 40F.

One thing about this storm that is usually different than most of this type... The QPF is off the charts for this time of year. We are talking several inches of liquid falling, there will likely be flash flooding in much of the eastern half of OK.

12Z GFS loading in now, looks bad for W OK. Heavy ice accumulation.


One thing that could save most of the state from ice accumulation is the fact that rain will be falling so heavily from the warm upper layers of the atmosphere, it will actually help to warm the lower layers near the surface.

[Anonymous.]

Ice Storm warning for virtually all of the TX panhandle. I think we will likely see the western and northwest part of OK upgraded to this category either late tonight or in the morning.

[Bobby821]

Ice Storm warning for virtually all of the TX panhandle. I think we will likely see the western and northwest part of OK upgraded to this category either late tonight or in the morning.

Any chance OKC/Moore gets included in the Ice Storm Warning?

[Anonymous.]

Doubtful. Unless temperatures drop much quicker, and much lower than currently forecasted.

[Bobby821]

Doubtful. Unless temperatures drop much quicker, and much lower than currently forecasted.

Well that stinks.

[okatty]

^ And I'd say its super fantastic!!

[coov23]

Should be cleared out for Bedlam, right?