Oklahoma Weather Discussion - August/September 2012

[silvergrove]

At least the north side of OKC got rain yesterday. Norman...I'm not sure what is going on. It is like the "Norman bubble" that normally deflects severe weather is in full force. LOL

Two of those force fields are around major cities (OKC and Tulsa). Think the urban microclimate may have anything to do with that?

[venture]

Slight Risk today for most of Oklahoma expect far NW, and far southern counties. All of Central OK is included.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY INTO OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A RIDGE
FROM THE SRN PLATEAU INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN
STATES. THE ERN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS A STRONG VORTICITY
MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NWRN ONTARIO INTO MN MOVES
ESEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL FORCE A
DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND NEWD TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MI AND WI SWWD INTO
ERN IA/NWRN MO/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NRN NM
WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND SRN
PLAINS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

...SRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY INTO OK...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS FROM NWRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO NWRN IL AND ERN
IA HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. STORMS HAVE LIKELY BEEN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND HAVE
PRODUCED OCCASIONAL MARGINAL HAIL AND 35-45 KT SURFACE WIND GUSTS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING EWD THIS MORNING
TOWARD LOWER MI AND ACROSS NRN IL WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS CONVECTION AND SWWD AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
DIABATIC HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING OCCUR...WITH MLCAPE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG OVER LOWER MI TO 2000 J/KG
FROM IL SWWD INTO OK. INTENSIFICATION OF CURRENT STORMS AND/OR
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK /60 KT AT 500 MB AND 90
KT AT 250 MB/ MOVING TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WILL ENHANCE
VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS MO AND PROMOTE
DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND ISOLATED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE WRN EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL
OVER THE SRN PLAINS AS WEAKER WINDS ALOFT AND LIMITED VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL FAVOR A MIX OF WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND PULSE STORM
TYPES. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A DEEP WELL MIXED PBL
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG. THIS
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS AND HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

[venture]

Scattered to isolated storms are going up from the Ada area back up to the OKC Metro and then SW along I-44 and out towards Altus. Should see things continue to develop through the day and hopefully break this 70-day streak of nearly no rain in Norman.

[venture]

Western edge of Slight risk from I-35 and west was removed in the latest update. Remains to the east.

[SoonerDave]

About 60-90 mins ago, there was some pretty nice cumulus development in what appeared to be western Oklahoma County into Canadian county, but in the last 20 minutes or so that's thinned out substantially. Radar is showing some echoes along a line from SW Canadian county northeast, but I'm wondering if that might actually be a wind shift line or frontal boundary showing up on the radar??

[Roadhawg]

Weather last night showed a pretty good chance of rain tomorrow, according to their computer models around an inch but I'll believe that when I see it.

[venture]

Weather last night showed a pretty good chance of rain tomorrow, according to their computer models around an inch but I'll believe that when I see it.

Yeah. NAM is on the high side with 0.50 to 1.25" of rain, GFS is down around 0.2 to 0.5" of rain. We'll see.

[venture]

Latest HRRR continues to develop more precip over Central into SE Oklahoma through the morning/early afternoon. It also takes the storms over NW OK and develops them into a bow complex that will move through the Metro area from 1pm to 4pm this afternoon. We'll see if that actually happens.

Slight risk for much of the state today.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC/COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS ON SAT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WEST.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE S/SE
ALONG THE WRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE MO RIVER
VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE PAC WILL MOVE INLAND OVER
THE PAC NW/NRN CA.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE CENTRAL U.S.
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SWD TO A POSITION FROM SERN NEB INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE BY 19/00Z...WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SEWD ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EWD OFF THE EAST COAST.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO ARKLATEX...
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE RED
RIVER AT 12Z SAT...WITH THE WWD PORTION LIFTING NWD DURING THE DAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ON-GOING OR MORNING TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE AMOUNT OF NWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COLD FRONT-WARM
FRONT INTERSECTION WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE BY 18Z
WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX.

TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OR INTENSIFY NEAR THE COLD FRONT/WARM
FRONT INTERSECTION BY EARLY AFTN AND MOVE SEWD ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL LEAD TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 40-50 KTS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY... WITH TSTMS POTENTIALLY
EVOLVING INTO A SEWD-MOVING COMPLEX WITH TIME. OTHER SVR TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR AIR
MASS TO THE SOUTH AS FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AREAS OF STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING ASSIST IN REMOVING CINH.

ADJUSTMENTS TO SVR PROBABILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH LATER OUTLOOKS AS
THE IMPACTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ARE ASSESSED.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1784
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0929 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NW OK AND PARTS OF ADJACENT SRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 181429Z - 181600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS NEAR
STORMS MAY NOT BE NEGLIGIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL
SEEMS LOW ENOUGH THAT A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM.
TRENDS WILL...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...THE SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAS SPREAD
ACROSS THE GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AREAS WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY...BUT GENERALLY REMAINS
FAIRLY VIGOROUS AS IT APPROACHES THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER TO THE
NORTHWEST OF ALVA OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF
SEVERAL DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...WITHIN WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE CLUSTERS HAS REINFORCED THE RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER NEAR/NORTHEAST OF A REMNANT STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS SEEMS TO LIMIT DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE AMBIENT LOW-
LEVEL FLOW FIELDS. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING SURFACE PRESSURE
PERTURBATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SURFACE GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...WHERE ONE SIGNIFICANT FALL/RISE COUPLET WAS EVIDENT
NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY AT 14Z. GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...THE LONGEVITY OF THIS FEATURE...AND THE EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS UNCLEAR...BUT
STILL SEEMS LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR/MEAD.. 08/18/2012

[venture]

Updated outlook for today...

...CNTRL/SRN PLNS SE INTO ARKLATEX/LWR MS VLY THROUGH TNGT...
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE/DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
FROM PARTS OF TX AND OK ESE INTO THE LWR MS VLY. PATTERN/TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL...HOWEVER...BE COMPLICATED BY THE
DIFFUSE/FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARIES...BY CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER...AND BY IMPULSES IN WNWLY MID/UPR LVL FLOW.

A FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY ARISE FROM
ONGOING...LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS NOW
OVER SE OK/SRN AR. GIVEN INSTABILITY/PW DEPICTED IN AREA OBSERVED
AND FCST SOUNDINGS...SUCH A SYSTEM COULD CONTAIN SMALL- SCALE BOW
STRUCTURES WITH DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL. A SIMILAR FORWARD-PROPAGATING
SYSTEM MAY ARISE NEAR COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION IN THE TX
PANHANDLE REGION/SW KS...AND MOVE SE INTO WRN OK/N TX...WHERE WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW EXISTS.

STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS /40+ KT NNW DEEP SHEAR/ AND ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH GRAZING INFLUENCE OF SD UPR IMPULSE WILL YIELD AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED STORMS AND SUPERCELLS...
ESPECIALLY OVER WRN HALF OF SLIGHT RISK AREA. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
IN THE LATTER AREA MAY INITIATE AS DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE
STORMS...ENHANCING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

THE STORM CLUSTERS LIKELY WILL PERSIST IN SOME FASHION THROUGH EARLY
SUN...WITH PERHAPS A CONTINUED INTERMITTENT RISK FOR ISOLD SVR
WEATHER. HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND EXPECTED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING BY PREVIOUS STORMS SHOULD RESULT IN A
DIMINISHED RISK FOR SUSTAINED SVR ACTIVITY LATE TNGT.

[venture]

Severe storm entering far NW areas of the metro area here in the next hour.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME WESTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT


* AT 1122 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS
DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ORION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
ANOTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WAS DEVELOPING 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CANTON MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

[sacolton]

Cool weather all week! Mid-80s ... YEAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!

[BG918]

Looks like more cooler weather is headed for the state, and a decent chance of rain/thunderstorms Friday.

[venture]

Complex of storms is starting to fall apart just west of the OKC Metro area. Outflow boundary is moving through now, so could see some decent wind but precip chances are really low.

[bandnerd]

lol And then it re-formed around 3:00am. No complaints here! That was a nice little shower and light show.

[Roadhawg]

Not sure how much rain I got but I heard the thunder.

[venture]

Perhaps we are starting to finally get into our Fall severe weather season...slightly. LOL Slight Risk next two days.

Slight Risk today is mainly going to be for Western Oklahoma west of I-35 and west/north of I-44, excluding the far northern tier of counties. Main risk wind and hail.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT WED SEP 05 2012

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GRT LKS SWD INTO PARTS
OF THE OH...MID MS...AND LWR TN VLYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS...


...SRN PLNS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
APPARENT DISTURBANCE CROSSING CO ATTM...IN SRN STREAM JET...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH UPLIFT ALONG AFOREMENTIONED PLNS COLD FRONT...MAY
FOSTER STRONG MID/LATE AFTN STORMS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK
REGION. WITH AMPLE LOW-LVL MOISTURE /PW AOA 1 INCH/ AND STEEP LOW
TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD YIELD SVR WIND AND HAIL. AND...WITH SLY LLJ LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN HI PLNS THIS EVE IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
MODERATE WLY FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN RCKYS...THE STORMS MAY GROW
INTO A SIZABLE CLUSTER OR TWO. THESE SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY
SSEWD...EXTENDING A RISK FOR SVR WIND/HAIL PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
TX S PLNS AND NW TX LATER TNGT.

Slight Risk for Thursday is going be west of I-35 and north of I-40.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2012

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

WEAK/NEUTRAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER WLY FLOW THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY SAG
SWD ACROSS THE NRN U.S. BOTH THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST A VERY WEAK LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ESEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS BY 07/00Z...THOUGH THE NAM IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS INTO SCNTRL NEB/NWRN KS BY EARLY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE SFC PRESSURES SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
FORCING A COLD FRONTAL SURGE SWD ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES TO
A POSITION FROM SCNTRL SD/NEB PANHANDLE/SERN WY BY 00Z. WHILE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF ORGANIZED
MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED DEEP ROTATING TSTMS.

THERMODYNAMICALLY...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE
EFFECTIVE AND INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG ADVANCING
COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 90S ACROSS KS WILL WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR DEEP
THERMALS/TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL
INITIALLY BE FOCUSED WITHIN THE STRONGER ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY...LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND
THIS MAY ENCOURAGE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TO EVOLVE ACROSS
THE SLGT RISK REGION. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH CONVECTION THAT
MATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

For Friday Upgrade to Slight Risk is possible as we get closer...

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT WED SEP 05 2012

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS
PERIOD...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND EVOLVES INTO A FAIRLY LARGE/POSITIVELY TILTED SYSTEM BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL DIVE SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS A FRONTAL LOW
DEVELOPS/SHIFTS ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL FOCUS A LARGE ZONE OF
CONVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...OH VALLEY WSWWD INTO OK AND VICINITY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THIS
AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE KS/MO
VICINITY WHERE WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MID
MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SURGE
QUICKLY SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK
FRONTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ENEWD FROM THE OK VICINITY -- WITH
WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE RISK AREA. WHILE THE EVOLUTION REMAINS COMPLEX MAKING
DETAILS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT AS STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT NUDGES EWD AND BEGINS TO SPREAD ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE...SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE. WHILE THIS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY TRUE AFTER DARK -- BEYOND THE PEAK CONVECTIVE
CYCLE...OVERALL SETUP WARRANTS INCLUSION OF 5% PROBABILITY FOR
HAIL/WIND ATTM. AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR...UPGRADE TO SLIGHT
RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET
RESULTS IN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
AREA...BUT MUCH OF THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED WITHIN ONLY A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS -- THUS LIMITING
OVERALL NIGHTTIME SEVERE THREAT.

..GOSS.. 09/05/2012

[venture]

Showers just NW of OKC continue to move mostly east. Boundary is ahead of them moving into NW OKC right now. Could see more development behind this and ahead of the front that is still back in NW OK.

HRRR showing more storms forming over the next 1-3 hours just W of OKC and moving in through the late afternoon/early evening.

[SoonerDave]

Showers just NW of OKC continue to move mostly east. Boundary is ahead of them moving into NW OKC right now. Could see more development behind this and ahead of the front that is still back in NW OK.

HRRR showing more storms forming over the next 1-3 hours just W of OKC and moving in through the late afternoon/early evening.

So tonight's HS football games may be soggy, eh?

[silvergrove]

Looks like rain popping up over the Yukon/Mustang area!

[venture]

Storm is warned for Central parts of the Metro area.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
318 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT
* AT 315 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
YUKON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

[SoonerDave]

Great view of storm heading into OK county from west here in my perch on near-east side of town...looks like a nice rainstorm coming in! Make things nice and sticky Great streak lightning show, too; wish I had my camera

[SoonerDave]

n/m

[venture]

Cold front is rushing in now. Winds should be up around 40 mph for a bit this evening.

[HewenttoJared]

Dust storm in Edmond. Not a drop though...