Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - March 2012

[venture]

Severe weather statement
national weather service norman ok
659 pm cdt sun mar 18 2012

okc055-190030-
/o.con.koun.to.w.0002.000000t0000z-120319t0030z/
greer ok-
659 pm cdt sun mar 18 2012

...a tornado warning remains in effect until 730 pm cdt for greer
county...

At 654 pm cdt...radar and trained weather spotters ovserved a
tornado. This tornadic storm was located 8 miles northwest of
mangum...moving northeast at 30 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Willow and brinkman.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now. Move to a basement or an interior room on the
lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile
home or outdoors...move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

This tornado is likely obscured by rain and may not be visible. Do
not wait to see or hear the tornado. Take cover now. Abandon
mobile homes and vehicles. If possible...move to a basement or
storm shelter. Otherwise move to an interior room or hallway on
the lowest floor. Stay away from windows.

&&

lat...lon 3512 9951 3500 9934 3485 9967 3495 9974
time...mot...loc 2354z 226deg 25kt 3494 9964

$$

wr


================================================== ====================
wfus54 koun 182354
toroun
okc055-190030-
/o.new.koun.to.w.0002.120318t2354z-120319t0030z/

bulletin - eas activation requested
tornado warning
national weather service norman ok
654 pm cdt sun mar 18 2012

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Greer county in southwestern oklahoma...

* until 730 pm cdt

* at 650 pm cdt...radar and storm spotters observed a tornado 10
miles west of mangum. The tornado was moving northeast at 25 mph.

* locations impacted include...
Willow and brinkman.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

[Achilleslastand]

So in the metro were supposed to get an inch of rain or so?
What a gully washer.

[Snowman]

I think it is an older term for a flash flood

[venture]

Fairly large bow echo moving through Western OK now. Winds 60 mph or so with it. It is currently about 65 miles away. Individual cells are moving NE at 50, but the overall line is only moving east about 30. So looking like this will start to hit the I-35 corridor around 6AMish. Leave early for work if you are going to get caught in this.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0285
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK INTO PARTS OF S CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83...

VALID 190834Z - 191000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83
CONTINUES.

IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN THAT A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED NORTH AND EAST OF
WW 83...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATING SEGMENT OF A MORE EXTENSIVE SQUALL
LINE...WHICH CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HAS
GENERALLY MAINTAINED A STEADY STRENGTH AS IT ADVANCES INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO RAPIDLY PROGRESS INTO THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BY 11-12Z...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG AND DAMAGING
SURFACE GUSTS. THEREAFTER...INFLOW OF LESS UNSTABLE AIR IN
CONJUNCTION WITH WEAKENING UPPER SUPPORT...AND AT LEAST SOME
WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A DIMINISHING SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SUFFICIENT WEAKENING MAY OCCUR
THAT AN ADDITIONAL WW TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WW 83 MAY NOT BECOME
NECESSARY...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT PROBABLY BECOMING FOCUSED
ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER
DAYBREAK.

..KERR.. 03/19/2012


ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

[venture]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND NERN TX
INTO FAR SERN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS NWD
INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXPANSIVE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH MERIDIONAL STYLE FLOW REGIME. SLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...RESULTING IN AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TX INTO MN AND WI. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM WRN/CNTRL OK INTO WRN N TX EARLY MON...BUT SHOULD STALL
ACROSS CNTRL TX.

MULTIPLE EPISODES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...AND THERE IS A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS CONSENSUS IS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS
CENTERED OVER THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM CNTRL/NERN TX INTO SERN OK.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
OH/PA/WV...WITH ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND POSSIBLE FROM DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STORMS.

...TX INTO OK AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...
A COMPLICATED CONVECTIVE DAY WILL UNFOLD ON MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES
BEGIN EARLY IN THE MORNING IN RELATION TO WHERE A SQUALL LINE...NOW
OVER WRN TX...WILL BE LOCATED...AND HOW MUCH COLD POOL AND
STABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST
THIS LINE WILL BE OVER W CNTRL OK INTO WRN N TX AT 12Z...WITH SRN
END NEAR I-20. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...AND STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO SOME HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REJUVENATE OVER ERN OK/NERN
TX WITH A STRONG 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THAT AREA. LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS SAME GENERAL VICINITY...ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FUELED BY WARM ADVECTION MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS DEPICTING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. SHEAR WOULD FAVOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF CNTRL TX. AS OF THIS WRITING...THIS AREA
SHOULD BE S OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY...AND ON THE INTERFACE OF STRONG
HEATING PROGGED OVER WRN/W CNTRL TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...STRONG INSTABILITY...AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR...BUT WILL
DEFER POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITIES TO LATER OUTLOOKS
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND BOUNDARY LOCATIONS.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL ONLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE ALOFT LIKELY RESULTING IN A LARGE MCS WITH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RAIN.

[SoonerDave]

Hey, venture, reading some other weather observation sites that indicate severe risk may be moving slightly north and east as the day unfolds, possible watch going up...what are you seeing/reading?

[venture]

Prelim Storm Reports. 4 tornadoes total from Sunday.


PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
515 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM HAIL 14 SW CROWELL 33.83N 99.91W
03/18/2012 E1.25 INCH FOARD TX PUBLIC

0515 PM HAIL 2 W HOLLIS 34.69N 99.95W
03/18/2012 E1.75 INCH HARMON OK PUBLIC

DAMAGED WINDSHIELD...RELAYED BY NWS AMA

0517 PM HAIL 1 N HOLLIS 34.70N 99.92W
03/18/2012 E1.00 INCH HARMON OK TRAINED SPOTTER

0518 PM HAIL 3 W HOLLIS 34.70N 99.92W
03/18/2012 E1.00 INCH HARMON OK TRAINED SPOTTER

ON HIGHWAY 62

0520 PM HAIL 1 W HOLLIS 34.69N 99.93W
03/18/2012 E1.75 INCH HARMON OK AMATEUR RADIO

0535 PM HAIL 4 W HOLLIS 34.69N 99.99W
03/18/2012 E2.50 INCH HARMON OK AMATEUR RADIO

NEAR OK TX BORDER

0613 PM HAIL 1 W VINSON 34.90N 99.89W
03/18/2012 E1.75 INCH HARMON OK TRAINED SPOTTER

3 ESE OF SANDY OK

0625 PM HAIL 3 W TRUSCOTT 33.75N 99.85W
03/18/2012 E1.00 INCH KNOX TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0635 PM HAIL 7 S CHILLICOTHE 34.15N 99.51W
03/18/2012 E0.88 INCH HARDEMAN TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0644 PM HAIL 2 W REED 34.90N 99.72W
03/18/2012 E2.00 INCH GREER OK TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM TORNADO 10 W MANGUM 34.88N 99.68W
03/18/2012 EF0 GREER OK STORM CHASER

TIME AND LOCATION APPROXIMATE

0710 PM TORNADO 3 WSW BRINKMAN 34.96N 99.60W
03/18/2012 EF0 GREER OK STORM CHASER

TIME AND LOCATION APPROXIMATE

0727 PM TORNADO 3 WNW WILLOW 35.07N 99.56W
03/18/2012 EFO GREER OK STORM CHASER

TIME AND LOCATION APPROXIMATE

0728 PM HAIL 3 NW WILLOW 35.21N 99.70W
03/18/2012 E1.50 INCH BECKHAM OK STORM CHASER

0737 PM TORNADO 5 NW WILLOW 35.10N 99.57W
03/18/2012 EF0 GREER OK STORM CHASER

TIME AND LOCATION APPROXIMATE

1109 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SW GAGE 36.30N 99.78W
03/18/2012 M58 MPH ELLIS OK ASOS

GAG ASOS

0300 AM TSTM WND GST 4 ESE ERICK 35.19N 99.80W
03/19/2012 M60 MPH BECKHAM OK MESONET

0325 AM TSTM WND GST 2 WSW WOODWARD 36.42N 99.42W
03/19/2012 M58 MPH WOODWARD OK MESONET

&&

[Roadhawg]

Other than windy there doesn't seem to be a lot going on weather wise.

[SoonerDave]

Other than windy there doesn't seem to be a lot going on weather wise.

As far as I'm concerned, the closer we get to April, that's a good thing.

When I was a kid, April was the month that used to scare me to death for storms. I know the "bigger" season statistically is May, but, for whatever reason, April was the month of dread in my book. Used to dread the "beep" tone on Channel 4, and certainly the gravely squawk they'd play in threes over on Ch 9...

[venture]

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1252 am cdt thu mar 29 2012

valid 291200z - 301200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms for the mid/lower-mo valley
swwd to the far ern tx panhandle...

...synopsis...
A weak upper-level trough from the nrn rockies to the lower co
valley will move ewd and likely extend from the nrn to the srn high
plains by 00z/fri. This will displace the ridge currently extending
across most of the plains to the ms valley and eventually to the
great lakes/midwest. Primary surface cyclone should develop into the
mid-mo valley this afternoon with a pair of attendant troughs
extending nwd into the ern dakotas and swwd into the tx panhandle.
Arcing warm front should gradually retreat newd across nrn mo and
into far srn ia during the evening.

...lower/mid-mo valley to the srn high plains...
A marginal risk for severe hail will likely exist during the morning
with lingering elevated convection ne of the warm front in the
lower/mid-mo valley. Surface-based tstm development should be
relatively more widespread across the cntrl/srn plains compared to
wed afternoon owing to favorable timing of a broad upper-level
trough approaching the cntrl conus. Large-scale ascent associated
with this trough and convergence along the aforementioned surface
boundaries should prove sufficient for removal of a capping
eml...resulting in isolated to scattered tstms forming across ern
neb/ks during the late afternoon/early evening.

Steep mid-level lapse rates along with surface heating will
contribute to large potential instability with mlcape likely
reaching 2000-3000 j/kg from sern neb into wrn ok. A strengthening
kinematic profile that veers with height should initially yield
supercells capable of very large hail. With time...conglomeration of
cellular cold pools could yield upscale growth into an mcs shifting
ewd into parts of mo and srn ia with risks for severe hail/wind and
perhaps a tornado or two.

Farther sw...guidance is fairly consistent that in the evening...one
or more areas of convective clusters should form along the surface
trough extending towards the tx panhandle and perhaps swd along the
dryline in wrn tx. Have extended slight risk probabilities swwd
towards the red river on the fringe of moderate mid-level wlys.

..grams/rogers.. 03/29/2012

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0380
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...NWRN OK...FAR NERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292150Z - 292245Z

CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS PROBABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ALONG
A DRYLINE FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL KS SWWD INTO NWRN OK...PERHAPS
EXTENDING AS FAR S AS THE NERN TX PANHANDLE. THE AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING TCU FIELD ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY DRYLINE...POSITIONED 30 W HUT TO 10 W GAG PER 2100Z SFC
ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE MOST OF
THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA MAY STILL BE CAPPED...AMPLE SFC HEATING
/TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 80S/ ALONG WITH STRONG IMPLIED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE DRYLINE /ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN OK/
SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE CINH AND FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE
SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL FAVOR
PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW IS
STRONGER OVER PORTIONS OF KS...WEAKENING WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS NWRN
OK. NONETHELESS...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT COMBINED WITH MODERATE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BROKEN LINE
SEGMENTS ACROSS KS...WHILE MULTICELL/OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
APPEAR MORE PROBABLE ACROSS NWRN OK AND THE FAR NERN TX PANHANDLE.

..ROGERS.. 03/29/2012


ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 535 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF TOPEKA KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GAGE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 115...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG A SURFACE DRYLINE IN NW OK...AND AS THE
DRYLINE IS OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL KS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARIES...WHERE STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ARE WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER
MARGINS FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS /PRIMARILY IN KS/...BUT THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD PEAK BY LATE EVENING...AND THEN DECREASE BY 02-03Z AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL AND THE CAP AGAIN STRENGTHENS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.

[venture]

Low storm chances today, but storms that do develop will probably go severe and risk is there for some monster hail in those storms (baseball or larger).



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN A PROGRESSIVE WLY FLOW REGIME WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CORN BELT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM
NWRN MO INTO CNTRL IND THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH SWRN PA BY EARLY
SAT. WARM FRONT OVER THE MID-MS/TN VALLEYS WILL ADVANCE NEWD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY. TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU WWD
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX INTO CNTRL TX BY
AFTERNOON.

...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PROGRESSIVE IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST...SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEWD ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE FRINGE OF THE
PLAINS EML AND ATTENDANT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING
THE REGION AS WELL...THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY YIELD MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1000 TO 2000
J/KG. WITH 700-500 MB WLYS AOA 30 KT FROM THE OH VALLEY
NWD...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS PRODUCING
PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL WITH SECONDARY THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. TSTM INITIATION APPEARS PROBABLE BY 21Z
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IL INTO IND...WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY GROWING
UPSCALE WITH ERN EXTENT AND BACKBUILDING SWWD ALONG THE OH VALLEY.

...SRN PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND LOCATION APPEARS NEBULOUS WITH
ILL-DEFINED FORCING MECHANISMS ALOFT...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE SRN PLAINS. WITH
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE OF 2500-4000 J/KG SHOULD
BECOME COMMON BETWEEN A QUASI-STATIONARY WIND SHIFT INVOF THE KS/OK
BORDER AND THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO CNTRL TX. NAM AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE SREF AND GFS SUGGEST
ISOLATED TSTMS MAY FORM AROUND PEAK HEATING AS CIN IS MINIMIZED.
ALTHOUGH FLOW THROUGHOUT THE KINEMATIC PROFILE MAY REMAIN
MODEST...SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
SHOULD STORMS FORM...VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AND
WILL INTRODUCE A BROAD LOW-COVERAGE SLIGHT RISK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY.

..GRAMS/ROGERS.. 03/30/2012

[venture]

Main threat area is now generally south of I-40 and west of a line that is about 50 miles east of I-35.

[Tydude]

here is the slight risk severe weather map for this afternoon storms

[venture]

Developing storm in far western Garvin County between Purdy and Lindsay. Nothing major yet, but we'll watch it. Anything that happens to get cranking could drop some monster hail so we need to stay alert.

Tomorrow should be pretty quick and then we'll transition to the April thread. There are a lot of major changes in the layout of the April thread, so please give feedback. It is probably going to load a little slow due to the radar animations but I did want to get a lot of good information in there. For best viewing it will need to be viewed on a widescreen monitor, but those tend to be standard anyway.