May 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[FighttheGoodFight]

Yep. OU closing at 3:30pm. During finals week. Very serious now!

[Hollywood]

Driving back to OKC and clouds burning off quick on the Turner and up to 77 around 57 miles from the 35.

[Anonymous.]

First watch coming out will be [mainly] for potential ahead-of-dryline cells that fire off early afternoon. HRRR has been consistent about these, but kills them off very quickly.

[Boop]

Oklahoma County Courthouse closing at 2 PM today which is pretty unusual.

Come on, really? If the county courthouse is closing at 2 pm with no severe weather coming then that would pretty unusual

[jn1780]

Temperatures are in the upper 70's in central Oklahoma. Approaching 80's on the southern sides of the metro.

[okatty]

Come on, really? If the county courthouse is closing at 2 pm with no severe weather coming then that would pretty unusual

Yep, got the email from the Okla.County Bar Assoc.

[C_M_25]

I’m struggling with this one today. Heavy cloud cover. The air quite literally feels cool outside. This just feels like it’s going to be a north-central ok event with limited impacts on okc.

[SoonerDave]

I’m struggling with this one today. Heavy cloud cover. The air quite literally feels cool outside. This just feels like it’s going to be a north-central ok event with limited impacts on okc.

NWS has made it pretty clear surface cloud cover isn't going to stop this one. In fact, they've kinda gone out of their way to point that out, interestingly enough. Heck it would be great if you were right but it sure seems they're trying to head off that speculation unfortunately

[PoliSciGuy]

I’m struggling with this one today. Heavy cloud cover. The air quite literally feels cool outside. This just feels like it’s going to be a north-central ok event with limited impacts on okc.

It's almost 80 degrees with a dewpoint of almost 70. Winds are ripping, sheer is high, CAPE is high. The metro area is and will continue to be a high-end parameter space for the next 10-12 hours. Waaaaay too early and kinda irresponsible to call this a bust this early.

Also, PDS Tornado Watch is out, https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1787559249037738382

95/90 probabilities, good lord

[Boop]

Storms and tornados suck but that is Spring for you! Stay safe everyone!

[Libbymin]

https://twitter.com/mikelevinewx/sta...49606043128254

[C_M_25]

It's almost 80 degrees with a dewpoint of almost 70. Winds are ripping, sheer is high, CAPE is high. The metro area is and will continue to be a high-end parameter space for the next 10-12 hours. Waaaaay too early and kinda irresponsible to call this a bust this early.

Also, PDS Tornado Watch is out, https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1787559249037738382

95/90 probabilities, good lord

Sheesh dude. Did I say this is a bust? No. Not once did I type that. I just said it doesn't "feel" like a major weather event out there right now.

[SEMIweather]

Sitting in Clinton at the moment, low cloud cover has completely burned off here. Currently just some fair-weather cumulus but the CU field is more agitated just across the OK/TX border in the eastern TX panhandle. Would expect initiation right around the 100th meridian in the next 1-2 hours.

[Boop]

Sheesh dude. Did I say this is a bust? No. Not once did I type that. I just said it doesn't "feel" like a major weather event out there right now.

The keyword is "right now" the major weather event has not started yet!

[PhiAlpha]

It's almost 80 degrees with a dewpoint of almost 70. Winds are ripping, sheer is high, CAPE is high. The metro area is and will continue to be a high-end parameter space for the next 10-12 hours. Waaaaay too early and kinda irresponsible to call this a bust this early.

Also, PDS Tornado Watch is out, https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1787559249037738382

95/90 probabilities, good lord

Yeah even with the overcast skies, it's felt cool when the wind is whipping around but pretty hot and muggy when it settles down (for all 2 seconds at a time). And the sun is starting to break through the clouds more often.

[Anonymous.]

Watch parameters:

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
High (90%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (60%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
High (80%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)

[C_M_25]

It's interesting how different the NAM high res and the HRRR right now.

Any news on the sounding this afternoon? Is it at 2:30?

[jn1780]

Yeah even with the overcast skies, it's felt cool when the wind is whipping around but pretty hot and muggy when it settles down (for all 2 seconds at a time). And the sun is starting to break through the clouds more often.

The sun will be out fairly constantly here in about 30 minutes to an hour looking at the satellite loops. I don't think cap will help us. Its like last week all over again where the greatest risk is at night.

[SEMIweather]

Norman did a special sounding at 18z (1 p.m.), I believe they have plans to do another special one at 4 p.m. and then the usual one at 7 p.m. provided there aren’t storms in the area by then.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/

[C_M_25]

Just went back outside (haven't been out much due to injury) and it was noticeably muggier than it was a bit ago.

[C_M_25]

Towers starting to go up west of woodward. These look to be close or right on the dryline. Nothing developing ahead of the dry line quite yet.

[WhoRepsTheLurker]

2:45PM: It looks like initiation is starting south of Shattuck. Several cells along the TX/OK border.

One of the HRRR models is interesting to me, it is firing a lone supercell in Oklahoma County around 6pm or so and sending it through Luther and points northeast of there. Definitely bears watching.

[SEMIweather]

Here’s another special sounding from just before 1:00. With that cap, would think it will be difficult (but not impossible) for anything to initiate via the confluence zone ahead of the dryline as the HRRR has suggested. If anything does happen, it should be isolated and less of a threat than whatever initiates along the dryline.

https://twitter.com/MesonetMan/statu...52971993030715

[C_M_25]

Yeah, I feel like the HRRR is already behind schedule in regards to things firing ahead of the dryline. This particular model has struggled with this phenomenon all spring it seems.

[SEMIweather]

Looks like the Ellis County storm is just about ready to go, though no lightning strikes as of right now.