May 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[TornadoKegan]

Moore might be about to get hit by the big one again

[SoonerDave]

So am I mistaken, or are the models not at all settled on today's events? Unless I'm just completely misreading things, the current HRRR (at least the site I use tells me it's current) shows....nothing?? But the NAM showing what I would characterize as a very narrow range of initiation in the 4pm-ish timeframe along the I-35 corridor?

Are we talking about differences in estimation of the cap, or ??

[C_M_25]

NAM is starting to wake up a bit as it’s showing storm initiation now. The HRRR is also blowing up as well. NAM is favoring isolated storms and the HRRR is showing a line.

Btw, PDS…called it!

[SoonerDave]

NAM is starting to wake up a bit as it’s showing storm initiation now. The HRRR is also blowing up as well. NAM is favoring isolated storms and the HRRR is showing a line.

Btw, PDS…called it!

Just to make sure I'm seeing the same HRRR, the one I'm seeing is showing a line forming roughly along I-35 from right at OKC and north, starting 7-8pm?

[C_M_25]

Just to make sure I'm seeing the same HRRR, the one I'm seeing is showing a line forming roughly along I-35 from right at OKC and north, starting 7-8pm?

Yeah that looks like the HRRR I just looked at as well.

[jn1780]

There are storms in southwest Oklahoma that will complicate the forecast if they don't die off as expected.

Edit: This activity is quickly eroding so probably not a factor for late this afternoon.

[Ohwiseone]

Just throwing this out there.

The latest run of the HRRR has kinda of busted on this stuff this morning. The model thought it would be dying off a lot faster than it is. Plus, the amount of convective blow off (clouds, etc) is quite a bit larger than expected.

[C_M_25]

The HRRR is really moving stuff around this morning. The timing and location of that main cluster of storms is really all over the place. It’s annoying really…

[Anonymous.]

SPC has expanded the Enhanced Risk + SIG hatched areas further east to encompass Tulsa metro.

Also I see some posts here mentioning PDS. The only official PDS wording comes from the SPC for watches, and NWS offices for warnings. Local mets calling days or things PDS is their own adaptation for their forecast.

[SoonerDave]

SPC has expanded the Enhanced Risk + SIG hatched areas further east to encompass Tulsa metro.

Also I see some posts here mentioning PDS. The only official PDS wording comes from the SPC for watches, and NWS offices for warnings. Local mets calling days or things PDS is their own adaptation for their forecast.

Well that tells me they're looking at that HRRR model which seems to lean to a bigger line forming roughly along I-35 from OKC north and moving northeast.

There's been no NWS PDS declaration at all that I've seen

[C_M_25]

SPC has expanded the Enhanced Risk + SIG hatched areas further east to encompass Tulsa metro.

Also I see some posts here mentioning PDS. The only official PDS wording comes from the SPC for watches, and NWS offices for warnings. Local mets calling days or things PDS is their own adaptation for their forecast.

I don’t think anybody is calling for PDS. I suggested last night that I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some of that verbiage by this afternoon, and some of the model skew-t’s are hinting at the parameters for such discussion; however, things are still too much in flux atm. I predicted PDS verbiage coming through today but this overcast is complicating everything.

[SoonerDave]

HRRR right now starting to show a pretty firm line of storms developing essentially on top of I-35 from KS to TX right at 8pm tonight. Doesn't seem to show much afternoon initiation, so I'm inferring the development is based on better LLJ in the evening..

[PoliSciGuy]

Yeah the outlook text doesn't have any of the kind of verbiage we usually see (eg. "violent" or "strong" tornadoes or "outbreak", etc.) that would indicate a PDS tornado watch. Obviously a lot can change in the next few hours but nothing yet indicates that this is more dangerous than the system we had go through a few weeks ago

[SoonerDave]

Yeah the outlook text doesn't have any of the kind of verbiage we usually see (eg. "violent" or "strong" tornadoes or "outbreak", etc.) that would indicate a PDS tornado watch. Obviously a lot can change in the next few hours but nothing yet indicates that this is more dangerous than the system we had go through a few weeks ago

Right now I'm staring at a thick deck of cloud cover that I think extends across a lot of C OK. If the remnants of those western storms slides in, even if the rain has abated, it's going to make clearing and heating that much tougher. Not impossible, but tougher.

[C_M_25]

Yeah the outlook text doesn't have any of the kind of verbiage we usually see (eg. "violent" or "strong" tornadoes or "outbreak", etc.) that would indicate a PDS tornado watch. Obviously a lot can change in the next few hours but nothing yet indicates that this is more dangerous than the system we had go through a few weeks ago

Yeah the models have moved away from isolated supercell development and are favoring a broader line. Overcast is thick as well. I think those things will limit any sort of PDS-type discussion. We’ll see though. Lots of time left before things become clearer.

[PoliSciGuy]

Right now I'm staring at a thick deck of cloud cover that I think extends across a lot of C OK. If the remnants of those western storms slides in, even if the rain has abated, it's going to make clearing and heating that much tougher. Not impossible, but tougher.

Yeah agreed, though it'd only take 1-2 hours of even partially clear skies to heat up enough to make the environment ripe. All depends on what the skies here in the metro look like around 2-3pm

[kukblue1]

Yeah I was going to say don't let this morning cloud cover fool you the system is just moving in at the right time with the right jet stream the right moisture timing is really perfect for the system. All that being said I still only think we get two maybe three storms

[m.williams]

Clouds starting to break in Norman with sun peaking through.

[jn1780]

Yeah I was going to say don't let this morning cloud cover fool you the system is just moving in at the right time with the right jet stream the right moisture timing is really perfect for the system. All that being said I still only think we get two maybe three storms

The sun is peeking through every so often here. The activity in the Lawton area starting to move off to the east and shrinking in size a bit. Don't know if that will happen quickly enough.

[FighttheGoodFight]

Last info I saw it appears to be more prevalent OKC and north?

[SoonerDave]

Heavy overcast has returned in my neck of the woods (a bit SE of WRWA) just before 11AM along with some very light sprinkles.

[TornadoKegan]

The NAM in Moore is going crazy

[PoliSciGuy]

Yeah this should be the last band of stuff for the metro before the main show, western side of the state already experiencing some clearing: https://www.mesonet.org/weather/sola...ation?ref=1252

[kukblue1]

The sun is peeking through every so often here. The activity in the Lawton area starting to move off to the east and shrinking in size a bit. Don't know if that will happen quickly enough.

It's not going to take much sun today. We get into the upper 70s to low 80s it's go time.

[SEMIweather]

Watch any OFBs from the elevated convection for potential initiation later today, I think.