February 2022 - General Weather Discussion

[midtownokcer]

One of the odd things about this winter storm was following Mike Morgan's forecast and tweeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. He said the storm would be over by 8:00-8:30 PM on Wednesday. It continued to snow for ~30 hours after that in OKC when the last wave came through in the early early morning hours on Friday.

Meanwhile, his colleagues at KFOR were tweeting the opposite. Models trending upward, 2 day event. Such a weird thing to see a news station putting out their official forecast while the head meteorologist puts out a forecast contradicting that.

[BG918]

Looking like a return to gulf moisture (finally) and a decent chance of rain/storms around the 18th. Slight chances a couple times before that around the 11th and 15th

[Anonymous.]

Beautiful weather continues this week. A brief cooldown for Saturday (of course). Next precipitation chances look to be mid-week around the 16th.

[Anonymous.]

Early look at next week's storm. At this time it appears a mostly rain event for OK with a solid dosing of dryslot. Best rain chances E of I-35.

[kukblue1]

SPC has slight risk out already for storms on Wednesday i-35 east.

[BG918]

GFS is hinting at a much more active pattern for the southern Plains starting this week. This would be a great time to catch up on needed rainfall across the state.

[SEMIweather]

Looks like things are trending towards the first severe weather event of the season for OKC on Wednesday Evening. Not expecting anything too bad but the warm sector keeps trending further west on model runs. Probably more of a hail threat than anything else as most of the instability looks to be elevated.

[Anonymous.]

Show begins Wednesday night. Looks like chance for severe storms for all of C OK, largest threats are hail and wind. An outside tornado chance.

On the backside, winter weather will be present out in NW OK, maybe a wrap around snow shower or few flurries Thursday around lunchtime in C OK. Nothing significant expected here in OKC.

[Celebrator]

What's the timing when storms/precip gets going? Is this all after sundown, after midnight into the overnight....?

[LakeEffect]

What's the timing when storms/precip gets going? Is this all after sundown, after midnight into the overnight....?

KOCO said storms would develop around midnight into the overnight...

[SEMIweather]

1 a.m. - 5 a.m. Thursday Morning is my best guess on storm timing as of right now.

[kukblue1]

WHAT IS HAPPENING. HRRR WHAT ARE YOU DOING???? 12 inches of snow for OKC. Which will be more like 3-5 but it has the system much much further south with the 18Z model run and much more snow for the OKC metro. Anyone else picking up on this?

[OKCDrummer77]

Damon Lane just tweeted about a possible "freezing rain mess" next week. Anyone here see anything to back this up?

[Anonymous.]

WHAT IS HAPPENING. HRRR WHAT ARE YOU DOING???? 12 inches of snow for OKC. Which will be more like 3-5 but it has the system much much further south with the 18Z model run and much more snow for the OKC metro. Anyone else picking up on this?

This HRRR run is an extreme outlier at the moment. However, I will say the Canadian model has kept the low's track to the south for the last week+ until just recently when it is sliding the track to the north to match most models.

I will say, the run you are speaking about is skewed from sleet, but nonetheless it is still very impressive given the situation.

[Anonymous.]

Damon Lane just tweeted about a possible "freezing rain mess" next week. Anyone here see anything to back this up?

There is two more storms coming in behind the one from this week. At this time, it appears winter precipitation will be likely.

[kukblue1]

Night time tornadoes possible but I think way down by the red river. Lawton Duncan Ardmore south type thing. Mostly likely quick spin ups but in the middle of the night it's never good. Not that it's ever good.

[SEMIweather]

IMO, short-range models are backing off on the severe weather threat somewhat. Mostly expecting garden-variety storms for the OKC Metro, maybe some marginally severe hail or a strong wind gust. Greater severe threat should be down in the Texoma region. Timing looks to be around 2-6 a.m. for OKC. Regardless of the severity, a lot of the state should get some much needed precipitation out of this system, potentially up to an inch. As far as snow goes, OKC looks to maybe get a dusting. Best chance at actual accumulations in the Metro will be in the far NW suburbs. NW Oklahoma looks to get socked with a major deformation snow band tomorrow morning, would not be surprised to see localized accumulations of 8" somewhere between Woodward and Ponca City. Tomorrow will be an absolutely miserable day with temperatures struggling to hit freezing and strong north winds, but things will quickly warm up thereafter and this weekend will be a classic "false spring" situation with temperatures in the 60's and 70's ahead of another major cooldown next week. That storm system looks like an absolute mess to forecast at the moment and will probably take until Sunday or Monday for any sort of model consensus on potential winter weather impacts.

[Anonymous.]

^Could not have said it better!!

Rain and storms are marching in from the west now. Will be a very cold rain, but very needed.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued for all of SW and C OK.

[kukblue1]

Wow just went outside at 10:45 and those clouds are moving. Not sure I have seen clouds move this fast.

[kukblue1]

Cold Front for the win last night. It was through the metro or at least parts of the metro before midnight. Way before the storms. Just one tornado warning way down by the red river and a few thunderstorm warnings but that was it. On to the next one.

[Anonymous.]

Winds will slowly die down as we head through the night. Luckily they will begin picking back up out of the SW as we head toward morning. A great weekend on tap with 60s are in store.

Enjoy it because next week looks chilly:

[kukblue1]

I see our local media is already putting out maps 5 days before the storm on where the ice might be and sleet and the snow. SMH They will never learn

[Bill Robertson]

I see our local media is already putting out maps 5 days before the storm on where the ice might be and sleet and the snow. SMH They will never learn

I could not agree more. They just need to stick to "something will happen next Wed and Thurs" until the short range models come into their window and pretty much agree with each other. GFS and RGEM can change quite a bit run to run this far out.

But, they want viewers. They do care about the well being of the viewing public but bottom line it's a for profit business.

[kukblue1]

I could not agree more. They just need to stick to "something will happen next Wed and Thurs" until the short range models come into their window and pretty much agree with each other. GFS and RGEM can change quite a bit run to run this far out.

But, they want viewers. They do care about the well being of the viewing public but bottom line it's a for profit business.

But if we get nothing or it's all rain and you call the out on it they will deny they ever put out those maps. SMH

[BG918]

Hoping the storm moves slower and rain chances increase for Tuesday