January 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[kukblue1]

Just drove home from office downtown in film row. (7 pm) No snow on ground downtown. My house just the other side of the airport has a good blanket of 1-2 inches snow across the neighborhood. All five-six acres lots so not a lot of concrete to hold heat. The roads (I40/I-44) were not slick and just wet with traffic moving around 60 mph

Yep Airport has had about 1.6 by now for the day with an inch on the ground.

[MagzOK]

Some models are indicating possible ice next week accompanying reinforced colder air intrusions after this weekend.

[BG918]

Some models are indicating possible ice next week accompanying reinforced colder air intrusions after this weekend.

Definitely an unsettled pattern the next two weeks. Hopeful any ice accumulations are minimal and it stays mostly rain.

[kukblue1]

Some models are indicating possible ice next week accompanying reinforced colder air intrusions after this weekend.

So schools will be closed by Friday? 2 soon? I kind of get Tuesday while they were closed you don't want them there and things get really bad but Today?

[Bunty]

Aaron Tuttle says the models are showing a news making major ice storm early next week as the weather changes to an Artic pattern. He says it's too early to pin down where it will center.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/...video_explicit

[BG918]

Aaron Tuttle says the models are showing a news making major ice storm early next week as the weather changes to an Artic pattern. He says it's too early to pin down where it will center.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/...video_explicit

Models have shifted some of that further south into Texas and show more ice into Missouri. I would wait until this weekend's model runs to worry about anything, and even then they can be completely wrong like this last event. Models do not do well with winter weather especially in the South where slight changes in temperature, moisture and dry air intrusion can completely change a forecast. For example the Tulsa metro stayed above freezing and therefore received no snow while models showed 6"+

[Bill Robertson]

Models have shifted some of that further south into Texas and show more ice into Missouri. I would wait until this weekend's model runs to worry about anything, and even then they can be completely wrong like this last event. Models do not do well with winter weather especially in the South where slight changes in temperature, moisture and dry air intrusion can completely change a forecast. For example the Tulsa metro stayed above freezing and therefore received no snow while models showed 6"+

Yes. The models leading up to this last event were way off. The only ones close were NAM and HRRR starting Tuesday
morning. The time it arrived.

[PoliSciGuy]

Winter weather remains incredibly finicky to model, and this upcoming week looks like we'll be around 32 degrees again thus making yet another hard forecast

[SEMIweather]

I do think the general pattern next week favors ice over snow if precipitation were to fall. Fortunately accumulations look rather light at the moment. But yes, it is for sure going to change given that we are 5+ days out.

[kukblue1]

It's only Wednesday and we are talking about a storm for next Tuesday. SMH we will never learn especially for winter weather. Severe Weather OK I'll let slide winter weather no Let's talk about it Saturday.

[Jake]

It's only Wednesday and we are talking about a storm for next Tuesday. SMH we will never learn especially for winter weather. Severe Weather OK I'll let slide winter weather no Let's talk about it Saturday.

What else are people supposed to talk about in a “January 2023 - General Weather Discussion” thread? Food?

[SEMIweather]

Especially as it’s clear even this far out that the potential is there for an advisory-criteria freezing rain event, and there’s basically nothing of note happening between now and then in the weather world here. Am I going to cancel plans for next week right now, absolutely not, but it’s worth keeping an eye on even if for no other reason besides boredom lol.

[kukblue1]

If you need something to hype start hyping the temperatures from January 30th until at least February 6th. A whole week of highs in the teens might even be 2 weeks with temps like that.

I was ready to hype it on the 22nd but everyone was focused on the snow storm that never was going to be all that bad cause of warm temps and warm ground. Doesn't look like we get down to the teens and only for a couple days but I was on it Sunday.

[PoliSciGuy]

NWS Norman is bearish so far on any meaningful precipitation next week, though caution that we're still a ways out

https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status...47441003188224

[Anonymous.]

GFS trend is to push the boundary further SE so most impacts would be across N TX into AR.

Obviously worth monitoring since things will keep changing. Cold air looks like a guarantee.

[BG918]

GFS trend is to push the boundary further SE so most impacts would be across N TX into AR.

Obviously worth monitoring since things will keep changing. Cold air looks like a guarantee.

Models have been showing most of the really cold Arctic air staying further north outside of a few days next week. Hopefully the trend continues and this is just a cold rain event

[SEMIweather]

IMO, no precipitation at all is more likely than a cold rain given the pattern. I suspect we’ll either be getting some light icing, or the models will once again underestimate the strength of the Arctic airmass (common model error at this time of year) and the front will move further south than currently forecast, resulting in all precipitation forming to the SE of the Metro. I do think it’s unlikely to be enough ice to cause tree damage and power issues a la October 2020. Something on the order of 0.01-0.10” seems reasonable, which would still be enough to cause travel issues.

[kukblue1]

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

Highs will skyrocket back to or above average tomorrow. Sunny skies
and southwest winds will dominate. Saturday will be warmer yet for
much of the area, especially western north Texas and central and
southern Oklahoma as a thermal ridge develops ahead of an advancing
cold front. Fire weather should not be a problem thanks to the
snowfall event, which helped to add moisture to all fuels.
Meanwhile, the cold front will crash into place Saturday evening and
Saturday night, with gusty northerly winds possible behind it.

This cold front will be the harbinger of yet another pattern change.
Whereas recent cold fronts have only brought transient periods of
colder air at the surface, this one will have an Arctic source and a
1040 mb high across Alberta to reinforce it. Thus, we can anticipate
a prolonged period of below-average temperatures to begin on Sunday
and last through at least the middle of next week. In addition,
several chances for precipitation will exist. The first will be
Saturday night across southeastern Oklahoma, as warm advection aloft
is supplemented by moisture advection. The arrival of the cold front
will limit chances for rain spatiotemporally.

A more widespread chance for precipitation will occur during the
Monday night to Wednesday timeframe. A trough is currently forecast
to cut off and slowly approach from the southwest, with broad
southwest flow in front of it. This pattern will favor 850-700 mb
southerlies, which will encourage Gulf moisture advection. Unlike
Tuesday's snow event, which was driven by dynamic forcing from the
upper-level low, this one will likely be driven by isentropic
ascent. In our area, that means a warm nose. Significant uncertainty
exists in global and ensemble guidance regarding surface and warm
nose temperatures. However, an early guess would suggest that rain
might dominate across southeast Oklahoma, with freezing rain
possible across central Oklahoma and western north Texas, and snow
possible across northern Oklahoma. The heaviest precipitation looks
to be across the southeastern part of our area. Confidence is medium-
high that precipitation will develop. Confidence is medium that a
warm nose will develop to complicate precipitation types, and
confidence in any one precip type at any one location is low.

Follow along https://twitter.com/iembot_oun

[SEMIweather]

Focusing in on Tuesday, January 31st as the day that will most likely have the most travel impacts.

[Anonymous.]

GEM going with ultra cold sleet batch for Monday along I-44 corridor. Freezing rain threat into Tuesday for SE OK.

[Boop]

I am ready for Spring to come although the nice weather was nice these days which is surprising

[Boop]

I am looking at the weather forecast and some say there will be ice just for 1 day or ice for a week so which is it?

[BG918]

I am looking at the weather forecast and some say there will be ice just for 1 day or ice for a week so which is it?

The EURO model has been the most aggressive with moisture and ice/snow, the GFS not as much. I think your best chance for any ice is across southern OK.

[chssooner]

Rained every day this weekend while i was in Houston. Okc, meanwhile, is one spark away from igniting like a powder keg.

[kukblue1]

Watch the road conditions in the morning. We have been really cold today 1Pm and we still only at 20 degrees. The ground is frozen the roads are cold it's not going to take much for things to get bad quickly unlike that storm.