April 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

OKC's [probably] last morning low temps in the 30s will be tomorrow, Thursday. Winds will gradually flip to be out of the south Thursday night and things will be howling by Saturday morning. Extreme fire danger will be present across all of W OK.

As others have discussed, SPC has outlined 15% probability of severe storms for Saturday afternoon.

[BG918]

I am interested in next Tuesday but wondering if it will ultimately be more of a heavy rain threat than a severe weather threat. Need something to take my mind off of how poorly my predictions on yesterday’s event ended up being, lol.

As is typical with these types of low pressure systems coming in from the west there will be a clear cutoff between very little and heavy rainfall. The SW Kansas/Panhandle donut and another pronounced dry slot in SW Oklahoma. You can see the same thing in Colorado where upslope flow can produce significant snow in some areas and other areas with downslope flow will get nothing. All will depend on the exact position of the low and where moisture can be pulled in. Some areas can pick up 2-3" easily.

GFS forecasted rainfall through Wednesday next week

[kukblue1]

Saturday not looking good at all for severe wieather. Very small window of instability. Hwy 81 east maybe as far east of 35. Next Monday Tuesday don't look good either for storms. Hopefully get more rain. We can always use more rain.

[C_M_25]

Yeah not a good severe weather pattern for the next couple of weeks. There’s a low moving in around the 14th, but there isn’t a lot of energy from the upper jet and it seems like a poor dry line set up. Probably just a big rain maker.

Edit - The last few hours of the GFS shows the possibility of a decent severe weather day. However, this typically happens when projecting that far out. I’m sure that will completely disappear as we get closer.

[kukblue1]

Yeah not a good severe weather pattern for the next couple of weeks. There’s a low moving in around the 14th, but there isn’t a lot of energy from the upper jet and it seems like a poor dry line set up. Probably just a big rain maker.

Edit - The last few hours of the GFS shows the possibility of a decent severe weather day. However, this typically happens when projecting that far out. I’m sure that will completely disappear as we get closer.

It's a real decent day if we had good moisture. I guess still a chance if the moisture can come in a bit early. Strong trough, strong jet, good low level winds. Looks great. Wouldn't surprise me if Kansas wasn't a slight risk tomorrow.

[Anonymous.]

SPC has downgraded Saturday's risk to a 5% or less chance of severe weather, and moved the location mostly E of I-35.

OKC will still get blasted by strong south winds, though. Western OK will be a dust and smoke storm.

[kukblue1]

The HRRR and Nam st is trying to fire storms just east of i-35 after about 6pm. Really depends on moisture. A lot of the other ingredients are there so if moisture can return and storm maybe slows down it could get a little rowdy but as of now (Thursday night) it's still kind of MEH. SPC might add the slight risk back. Fire danger in western Oklahoma might be a real bid problem.

[kukblue1]

Storm risk is increasing for the OKC Metro for today as of 1pm. Storms might fire just west now of OKC it's going to be close. Hail and wind low tornado but not zero.

[SoonerDave]

Looks like some smallish initiation occurring in west OK. Just small showers for now.

[Anonymous.]

Decent cells coming up. May see a Watch here before 5pm.

[SoonerDave]

Decent cells coming up. May see a Watch here before 5pm.

I just guaranteed.no rain for OKC. Just fertilized my yard LOLOL

The towering to the west was quick.

[kukblue1]

These storms could go severe once the get east of I-35. Stay alert. Wind and Hail.

[BG918]

Rainy week on tap targeting southern/eastern OK Monday-Wednesday.

GFS totals through Friday -EURO keeps most of heavy rain in Texas

[kukblue1]

Big storms possible for far SW Oklahoma/red river for Monday evening. Enhanced risk down there for large hail

[Anonymous.]

This week's storm system is really going to be straddling the Red River, C OK impacts still look possible, but the big time rainfall will be across SW and S OK.

[bison34]

Typical for OKC. We need to stockpile water in our reservoirs, since we get nothing in the summer. And apparently in the spring.

[kukblue1]

Let me start by saying WAY WAY WAY EARLY but keep an eye on the April 15th time frame. Wouldn't be surprised if SPC puts out a risk area either tomorrow or Wednesday for Monday April 15th. Just a general area but something to keep an eye on.

[Jake]

Typical for OKC. We need to stockpile water in our reservoirs, since we get nothing in the summer. And apparently in the spring.

Didn’t it rain 2 days ago?

[BoulderSooner]

Didn’t it rain 2 days ago?

down poured .. and is going to again tomorrow ..

and a big 0.00% of central Oklahoma is even abnormally dry much less in drought ..

[Pete]

I noticed that Lake Hefner is already almost overflowing.

The highest I've seen it in a long time.

[BG918]

down poured .. and is going to again tomorrow ..

and a big 0.00% of central Oklahoma is even abnormally dry much less in drought ..

Looking decent across most of the state and certainly much better than last year at this time. This is the time of year though when you ideally want to see a surplus going into June.

[bison34]

down poured .. and is going to again tomorrow ..

and a big 0.00% of central Oklahoma is even abnormally dry much less in drought ..

Tell that to the areas of my southeast OKC neighborhood where the ground is literally canyoning. Maybe the lakes are ok, but given how finicky Oklahoma weather can be, you never know when we might go weeks without rain.

[TheTravellers]

Tell that to the areas of my southeast OKC neighborhood where the ground is literally canyoning. Maybe the lakes are ok, but given how finicky Oklahoma weather can be, you never know when we might go weeks without rain.

That's just the nature of nature...

[BoulderSooner]

Tell that to the areas of my southeast OKC neighborhood where the ground is literally canyoning. Maybe the lakes are ok, but given how finicky Oklahoma weather can be, you never know when we might go weeks without rain.

lol the drought monitor is not about lake levels ..

[Mississippi Blues]

Tell that to the areas of my southeast OKC neighborhood where the ground is literally canyoning. Maybe the lakes are ok, but given how finicky Oklahoma weather can be, you never know when we might go weeks without rain.

Are you sure it’s not just a pile of dirt that dried out? Or maybe you moved to the only neighborhood east of Weatherford to be in a perpetual drought lol.