Covid-19 Economic Impact

[Edmond Hausfrau]

Not looking good.

Record Low for U.S. G.D.P. as Coronavirus Takes Huge Toll https://nyti.ms/3jWdfjp

I'm really interested in how this affects OKC with its huge reliance on sales tax revenue.

[chuck5815]

I'm really interested in how this affects OKC with its huge reliance on sales tax revenue.

At least they can actually collect Use Tax from online sales these days. That was the biggest crock of ****, and it went on for over a decade.

[HangryHippo]

At least they can actually collect Use Tax from online sales these days. That was the biggest crock of ****, and it went on for over a decade.

Yep. Absolute bull**** that was allowed to continue for as long as it was.

[Teo9969]

How long can talks about the stimulus remain at a standstill before the market freaks out and starts a sell off?

Conversely, if Democrats don't budge and get their way with a package north of $2 Trillion passes, what's the S&P going to? Surely $3,800 would be on the table?

[FighttheGoodFight]

How long can talks about the stimulus remain at a standstill before the market freaks out and starts a sell off?

Conversely, if Democrats don't budge and get their way with a package north of $2 Trillion passes, what's the S&P going to? Surely $3,800 would be on the table?

I imagine the markets will just keep going up. They haven't reflected the crisis at all in normal ways so far?

[securityinfo]

At least they can actually collect Use Tax from online sales these days. That was the biggest crock of ****, and it went on for over a decade.

I would love for someone, somewhere to show me how all of the monies collected at the point of sale from out of state purchasing is 1) Calculated (harder than it sounds); 2) Remanded to the State Taxing Authority and 3) Audited for accuracy. I can see the giant big box stores maybe being a bit stringent and accurate, but the other 50pct or so of online sales that seem to calculate tax at the time of the sale, what's to keep them from just pocketing all that cheddar? And yes, I have looked at the plug-ins that purport to do accurate calculation, etc., but is the Oklahoma Tax Commission going to audit all on-line sales? Looks like a potentially crooked setup to me. Kind of like when a weed store charges tax, and you pay in cash. Hmmmm.

[Jersey Boss]

How long can talks about the stimulus remain at a standstill before the market freaks out and starts a sell off?

Conversely, if Democrats don't budge and get their way with a package north of $2 Trillion passes, what's the S&P going to? Surely $3,800 would be on the table?

FWIW. Pelosi and Schumer offered to meet the WH half way and proposed splitting the difference at 2B today.

[Teo9969]

Sounds like no deal until after Labor Day...$600/week * 10M people is about $50B for the 5 weeks (that's $520B annualized) we're guaranteed to have no deal. It's not by any means a crippling amount but represents about 6.5% of annual consumer spending (and pretty much anyone living on $600/week is spending close to 100% of those funds in the short term).

I would assume this will likely hasten in the looming eviction crisis. I suspect this will be the next big hurdle for the economy, especially since we're a country that's very pro-landlord. I would assume this will also come with unintended consequences. For example, in the labor market many will no longer be able/willing to return to former positions when those businesses reopen due to displacement.

In an already hurting economy, every dollar counts. While $600/week may truly have been too high for most of the US (obviously not enough in places like San Fran or NYC), $0/week seems irresponsible and a recipe for disaster. I guess we'll see.

[mugofbeer]

Just an observation from Denver while out running errands today. While these are certainly not programmer or engineering jobs, there were sure a lot of "help wanted" signs at retail and restaurants. I saw at least 8.

[Plutonic Panda]

Construction jobs report shows Oklahoma suffering in this area



Image take from this article: https://www.californiaconstructionne...20/07/20/3750/

[Pete]

Construction jobs report shows Oklahoma suffering in this area



Image take from this article: https://www.californiaconstructionne...20/07/20/3750/

Lots of projects are wrapping up but very, very few are starting.

This is going to get a lot worse in a few months when pretty much everything other than roads comes to stop.

[jn1780]

Lumber prices are going up right now because of shortages. A lot of companies are going pause until prices come down if they ever come down that is We did have to basically print 2 trillion dollars out of thin air over the past 3 months.

[Plutonic Panda]

It’s eerie how quiet it is in LA. Traffic has picked up but it’s not like it used to be.

[Plutonic Panda]

Then there is still some good(ish) news about recovering:

https://www.wane.com/top-stories/for...-in-travelers/

https://www.forsythnews.com/news/tra...s-back-normal/

Some areas are seeing activity picking up again.

[TheTravellers]

The US economy is reliant on consumer spending – can it survive a pandemic?

"This pandemic reveals to me the vulnerability of an economy heavily dependent on a single source of economic activity – consumption. From my perspective, the U.S. would be better off if the economy – our collective wealth – were more heavily weighted toward public spending on, and investment in, education, health care, public transit, housing, parks and better infrastructure, and renewable energy. Such an economy would contribute to human well-being, emit less greenhouse gas and be less vulnerable to sudden disruptions in consumer spending.

As I see it, it is time for an honest public conversation about the carbon footprint of our “basic” lifestyles and what Americans need rather than what they are told they need."

[TheTravellers]

The US is experiencing a "K-shaped" economic recovery. Here's what that means

[gopokes88]

The US is experiencing a "K-shaped" economic recovery. Here's what that means

Means the Fed sucks

[Pete]

You can see the massive disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street.

Big stocks are soaring and middle class and below are really suffering, as well as small and medium sized businesses.

[TheTravellers]

Congressional Standoff Over Coronavirus Relief Likely To Last Until November

[Rover]

Means the Fed sucks

Fed was the only thing between the US and total catastrophe in 2008 and will be again now, unless the current admin has their way and makes it a partisan arm of a political party.

[Teo9969]

This was an excellent read that I think just about anyone remotely interested in the economy/stock market could understand:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/u...w9HBGHKbDtQ-LA

Basically, most people made out relatively well economically through all of this due to the stimulus. There are definitely those who suffered but some are even better off than they otherwise would have been between stimulus checks to the employed and increased unemployment benefits. Not going back to lockdowns was obviously a huge win for the economy.

I don't think it necessarily paints a pretty picture for underlying economic issues, but definitely helps to put some solid numbers to the situation.

[mugofbeer]

You can see the massive disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street.

Big stocks are soaring and middle class and below are really suffering, as well as small and medium sized businesses.

Stock market gains help far more people than you realize. 35% of Americans have stock investments, including retirement accounts. Your point is well-taken, though.

[Bill Robertson]

Stock market gains help far more people than you realize. 35% of Americans have stock investments, including retirement accounts. Your point is well-taken, though.

Yes. I was very happy a couple weeks ago when both our IRAs hit pre-COVID levels. Now I hope they keep climbing.

[PoliSciGuy]

Stock market gains help far more people than you realize. 35% of Americans have stock investments, including retirement accounts. Your point is well-taken, though.

80+% of stocks are owned by the wealthiest 10% of Americans. Sure I'm happy to see my 401k go up, but as the stock market gains the gap between rich and poor widens even more.

https://money.com/stock-ownership-10-percent-richest/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/27/weal...ouseholds.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poste...eld-by-top-10/

[mugofbeer]

80+% of stocks are owned by the wealthiest 10% of Americans. Sure I'm happy to see my 401k go up, but as the stock market gains the gap between rich and poor widens even more.

https://money.com/stock-ownership-10-percent-richest/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/27/weal...ouseholds.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poste...eld-by-top-10/

It's not the fault of Bezos or Musk, it's the others who continue to buy the stock of their companies bidding the price up.

Remember though, the vast majority of what you attribute to the wealth of these folks aren't assets they can do much with. The value of Amazon is bricks, blocks, morter, inventory, machinery, airplanes, people, faith, momentum and goodwill.....not cash. Bezos may control it but it's the company, not "wealth" as you think of wealth.