Oklahoma Weather Discussion - February/March 2013

[BrettM2]

Sleet/freezing rain in Edmond. Temp on the car still shows 37*.

[ou48A]

Ha ha! I'd be cool with that too. But I don't feel that will happen. Unless something magical happens like the low spinning down right where it is... or the low accelerating incredibly fast and outrunning it's precip shield instead of dragging it along like it's probably gonna do. I respect Mike... I remember being a kid watching him on May 3rd, but I think he's wrong. But... if he sees that he's wrong... he'll revise his thinking and let us know. The low has to move east... pressure falls are already occurring near the ArkLaTex. Dry slot will move east. Snow bands will move east. For us to not get snow here in OKC the low would have to do something unprecedented. IMO.

Thanks…. I really like reading and hearing all the different opinions…
Nobody in meteorology bats 1000%.

If the low keeps tracking east before turning to the northeast would that not put OKC in a better position to receive higher snow totals?

[Decious]

Decious, maybe Mike Morgan is thinking that the backside of the Low is going to break up like it has been doing in the Texas panhandle. If that's the case, then a whopping 1-3" is our best shot.

I'd take that! Really. But... the dry air isn't a surprise... it always happens... it's part of the deal, but the Norman NWS thinks that it should be overcome and the latest model data suggests that it will be overcome. It has been trying to win all day but precip keeps reforming. Anything CAN happen, but I'm hoping for 5 or 6 inches. Lotta warm air being pulled into the system. It's late February and this isn't North Dakota so... Ha ha ha! I like snow. The low is strong enough to dump two feet of snow so of course it has wrapped in dry air. I'm hoping it's also strong enough to fight it off. We'll see. But... if the NWS says blue and the media says green. I'm going blue until I see different.

[Praedura]

Man, a lot of posts on this thread today. Something going on?

[Decious]

I think at this point it is a bias of forecasters who rely on models to tell them what is going on to those that practice a more "nowcasting" type of approach. Here we are more of the nowcast bunch that adjusts quickly to trends we start to see and pass on those signs. We also have to keep in mind that Winter storms don't happen all the time down here so the amount of experience isn't going to be there. Plus we tend to see more complex systems, not taking anything away from the Great Lakes or Northeast though.

My main concern right now is to see how the dryslot is overcome. We are seeing precip expand now in the NE quadrant of the low's circulation. The doughnut hole of dry air over Caddo County is filling in extremely fast. We also have to take into consideration this low isn't moving much at all. It is maybe now just getting into Southern Jefferson Co, OK.

So no, I wouldn't say it is fair to say we don't know what is going to happen...within reason. However, some you'll find will be stubborn on their forecasts and just fall on the sword and use "amg supernatural cosmic waves of gas came in..." excuses.

This.

[venture]

Looks like we have a decent cell moving up from Slaughterville to the NNW, should move into Norman/Moore here soon. Reflectivity looks like sleet, but will need to wait for ground reports to verify. If we can get any frozen precip to come down in a good amount it'll help get this change over moving by cooling the air column overhead. Right now just a light rain in Norman still.

[SoonerDave]

And so goes the life of a Weather Prognosticator . . . =)
(i think that radio gary england and his miraculous thunder lizard back around '82 had a fair chance of being exactly right.)

Wow - someone ELSE who remembers Gary's "thunderlizard?" That's not even '82, Rad, that's more from his pre-KWTV days at radio station KTOK in the early seventies. He took the "lizard" with him to KWTV around '75 or thereabouts. I remember it only because he was the one met in OKC that used to scare the absolute crap out of me when I was a kid during the spring when storms rolled out, and got me scared to death of even something as simple as a storm watch. That got me to studying weather (at least a little) on my own. Have never liked the harum-scarem mets since then.

[venture]

Minco is now sustained 31 mph gusting to 38 mph. Snow should start picking up in that area here over the next 30-60 minutes.

[ou48A]

David Paine CH 9 reports good run off in the creeks west of the Kingfisher area.

M. Armstrong still thinks we will see significant snow in OKC area.
He indicated that he sees recent signs that might increase our snow totals.

[Andrew4OU]

David Paine CH 9 reports good run off in the creeks west of the Kingfisher area.

M. Armstrong still thinks we will see significant snow in OKC area.
He indicated that he sees recent signs that might increase our snow totals.

I wonder when Mike Morgan will follow. It wouldn't surprise me to see a map painted with apocalyptic snow totals come the 5pm newscast.

[kelroy55]

I wonder when Mike Morgan will follow. It wouldn't surprise me to see a map painted with apocalyptic snow totals come the 5pm newscast.

He'll update his forecast tomorrow

[SomeGuy]

Gary England says we'd get snow around 6pm until 6 am and expects 2-6 for the west sides of the metro and 1-3 for the eastern half

[SoonerDave]

David Paine CH 9 reports good run off in the creeks west of the Kingfisher area.

M. Armstrong still thinks we will see significant snow in OKC area.
He indicated that he sees recent signs that might increase our snow totals.

Mike Armstrong has consistently asserted that OKC will see significant snowfall. He was tweeting last night that he thought the water vapor and track of the system would overcome the dry slot.

[Anonymous.]

Okay here we go, winds have finally switched from the NW now, finally pushing the freezing line through the metro (actually starting in the south metro).

Precip is increasing from the SE and overrunning the are from Ardmore to Norman area. This will be OKC's chance. This needs to establish itself and park over us and we will see 1"+ hour rates.

[Decious]

Okay here we go, winds have finally switched from the NW now, finally pushing the freezing line through the metro (actually starting in the south metro).

Precip is increasing from the SE and overrunning the are from Ardmore to Norman area. This will be OKC's chance. This needs to establish itself and park over us and we will see 1"+ hour rates.

Schweeeeeet! I think we have a good shot. I'm playing with my daughter and watching Disney Jr. now so no TV and very little internet. But honestly... you and V-man are always on point so I'll just glance at my phone every now and then for your updates and tell my 2 year old that I'm texting Mommy. Hopefully she doesn't figure out that Mommy is upstairs and me texting her is unlikely. :-) It's Oklahoma... I'm amped to be getting a view of a historic system like this. Can't wait to hear the pseudonyms that the media comes up with. Ha ha! Maybe 30 inches in NW OK! Epic.

[jn1780]

The new NWS graphic has 5-7 inches on the north side of town and 3-4 inches on the south side of town. Big difference there.

[OKCRT]

Okay here we go, winds have finally switched from the NW now, finally pushing the freezing line through the metro (actually starting in the south metro).

Precip is increasing from the SE and overrunning the are from Ardmore to Norman area. This will be OKC's chance. This needs to establish itself and park over us and we will see 1"+ hour rates.

Lets hope we see record snow in OKC. I know that's not gonna happen but it would be fine by me. The lakes need the moisture. Anyone know how much moisture/snow/rain the canton area has had? Lot of people from that area in a panic over OKC taking the water lately.

Looking at the radar right now has OKC metro in a dry spot and snow/rain on all sides surrounding the metro area. Wow,this is crazy to look at.

[venture]

The new NWS graphic has 5-7 inches on the north side of town and 3-4 inches on the south side of town. Big difference there.

I personally wouldn't read much into that yet. A lot of it is going to come down to where the heaviest snow band sets up one this change over is done.

[Anonymous.]

The only dry pocket of air left, is sitting idle over OKC metro... Figures, LOL

[venture]

Okay here we go, winds have finally switched from the NW now, finally pushing the freezing line through the metro (actually starting in the south metro).

Precip is increasing from the SE and overrunning the are from Ardmore to Norman area. This will be OKC's chance. This needs to establish itself and park over us and we will see 1"+ hour rates.

A lot of sleet reports now from Newcastle back to Chickasha. Definitely got a pocket of dryer air now over SW OK County, NE Grady, N McClaim, and NW Cleveland counties. Precip starting to move up through Cleveland county should help wipe that out.

[jn1780]

Lets hope we see record snow in OKC. I know that's not gonna happen but it would be fine by me. The lakes need the moisture. Anyone know how much moisture/snow/rain the canton area has had? Lot of people from that area in a panic over OKC taking the water lately.

Looking at the radar right now has OKC metro in a dry spot and snow/rain on all sides surrounding the metro area. Wow,this is crazy to look at.

A lot of water will be flowing into Canton from upstream.

[silvergrove]

The only dry pocket of air left, is sitting idle over OKC metro... Figures, LOL

Haha is this an effect of the urban heat island or does that not even matter this time of the year?

[venture]

Seminole County downgraded to Winter Wx Advisory through 6AM. All other advisories remain unchanged.

[PennyQuilts]

33 degrees in SW OKC. Just stepped out and it wasn't raining, exactly, but the air had a sort of weird consistency. Drops of water were liquid but it was like my shoes were wanting to stick for just a moment. Hard to explain. No wind to speak of (we are west of SW Council near Wheatland -none of those winds have arrived) but outside is like a cold mist.

[sacolton]

Is it time to start doing this?