Electric Vehicles

[Pete]

When there is a trillion-dollar global market, there is a way.

EVs have only been around for about 10 years and have already made great strides.

[David]

I've been reading about new battery technology for about 25 years. I used to get excited for new technology that I would read about but it would never come.to fruition. I'm not saying a breakthrough can't or won't happen. But I think you make a good point that we're butting up against the laws of physics. I've since learned to temper my expectations of what batteries can do.

If you have been reading about battery technology for about 25 years how could you possibly have missed the tremendous advances that have been made over that time?

For example, borrowed from https://rockymntstage.wpengine.com/w...-1024x576.png:

[jccouger]

If you have been reading about battery technology for about 25 years how could you possibly have missed the tremendous advances that have been made over that time?

For example, borrowed from https://rockymntstage.wpengine.com/w...-1024x576.png:

Yeah, they are getting insanely efficient at low cost.

I'm sure he's speaking of just some new technology all together, which isn't needed. Significant improvements are being made, and Tesla is officially using dry cathode now and that is going to cut costs even more.

This thread is so silly, people go out of their way to talk about any EV other than Tesla even thought they are by far the best value of any EV on the planet. Can't beat them for the cost and the autonomous features set them way past anything else. My car drives me around everywhere with rare interventions.

[fortpatches]

I would set my sites a little lower than $1900/yr to be realistic. Also, don't forget to subtract out what it costs to charge. I've seen where some EV manufacturers (don't recall if BMW is one) suggest to not fully deplete the battery and to not fully charge it. Basically treat it like a cell phone. Keep it between 20% and 80%. So you're effectively using 60% of your battery.

I would see about renting one first to give it a try. I read stories (Ford and another manufacturer I don't recall rn) where the app to find available chargers has bad information. People arriving at charge stations to find all but a couple of them are broken.

Perform due diligence.

If you want an EV for performance or because you just think it's cool, that's understandable. Just don't do it thinking your saving the planet because you're not.

Don't forget to actually look at the website before noting failings. The website used subtracts out the cost for charging.

That sounds a bit ad hominem but to use that same strategy, this reminds me of people who believe greenwashing lingo. I'm not just going to believe something blindly because it has a big name attached to it. Also, the study says EV production emits less greenhouse gasses. Not less total environmental impact.

Aside from that, what I've been seeing is that for a total move to EV, wind energy, and solar energy, there's not enough rare earth metals to store all that energy, we can't get to all the metals and we can't do it fast enough.

You seem to only be referring to battery storage. There are other energy storage options, other than battery-type chemical energy storage.

[traxx]

I think we see that next step in the next 10 years.

I felt the same way about 20 years ago. And that's why I temper my expectations with announcements of new battery technology. Not saying it isn't possible, but I also don't think it's probable.

[FighttheGoodFight]

I felt the same way about 20 years ago. And that's why I temper my expectations with announcements of new battery technology. Not saying it isn't possible, but I also don't think it's probable.

I mean Lithium Ion batteries have taken pretty huge jumps in the last 20 years. The first Tesla was around 2009? So look how many we see now. The electric motor is getting better and batteries follow that rapid expansion. Just has to have a market and it looks like that market is here (at least on a global level, maybe not in Oklahoma).

[Pete]

^

There were only 600 new EV registrations in the European Union in 2010.

In 2023, they accounted for 15% of all new car registrations (not counting hybrids which also feature advanced battery tech).

That's an incredible increase in a just over a decade.

[Jersey Boss]

Yeah basing what Europe does as an indicator of what will happen in this country does not always bear fruit.
In the 1970's it was argued that the USA needed to adopt the metric system to remain competitive on the world stage for car parts and other goods. After a couple of half hearted attempts it flopped. Somehow this country managed to thrive. At the end of the day, Europe and Asia aren't here.

[FighttheGoodFight]

^

There were only 600 new EV registrations in the European Union in 2010.

In 2023, they accounted for 15% of all new car registrations (not counting hybrids which also feature advanced battery tech).

That's an incredible increase in a just over a decade.

Piggy back off that, look how much EV sales have moved up in the US since 2015. Hybrids and PHEVs as well. ICE sales slow down as well. There is a shift occurring for sure.



EDIT* Oklahoma has 22k EVs registered just as a point of reference. California (1,178,948), Florida (231,518), Texas (210,433), Washington (141,055) and New Jersey (125,317).

[David]

I felt the same way about 20 years ago. And that's why I temper my expectations with announcements of new battery technology. Not saying it isn't possible, but I also don't think it's probable.

So you are expecting a new miracle battery while completely ignoring the last 20 years of battery technology improvements?

[Pete]

Yeah basing what Europe does as an indicator of what will happen in this country does not always bear fruit.
In the 1970's it was argued that the USA needed to adopt the metric system to remain competitive on the world stage for car parts and other goods. After a couple of half hearted attempts it flopped. Somehow this country managed to thrive. At the end of the day, Europe and Asia aren't here.

Nobody said anything like that.

The discussion is about the adoption of EVs and the overall evolution of the tech and batteries.

[OKCRealtor]

Piggy back off that, look how much EV sales have moved up in the US since 2015. Hybrids and PHEVs as well. ICE sales slow down as well. There is a shift occurring for sure.



EDIT* Oklahoma has 22k EVs registered just as a point of reference. California (1,178,948), Florida (231,518), Texas (210,433), Washington (141,055) and New Jersey (125,317).

That is interesting to see so many less ICE vehicles sold. Not surprised by the EV numbers growing but seems less cars in general selling. I can see cars becoming more of an upper middle class thing to own in the future like housing has become. Due to high costs of ownership many people may not be able to afford cars anymore.

[Pete]

^

Cars are just so incredibly expensive now.

When I was car shopping about a year ago, I looked into the new Honda CR-V and they start at $30K and the model I preferred was almost $42K. For a compact Honda SUV.

Pretty hard to buy a new car for less than $600/mo. over 5 years plus tax, title, and car insurance.

I love my new car (Genesis) but it's painful to write that monthly check after not having a car payment for 20 years. I hope to pay it off soon and keep it a very long time.

[BoulderSooner]

That is interesting to see so many less ICE vehicles sold. Not surprised by the EV numbers growing but seems less cars in general selling. I can see cars becoming more of an upper middle class thing to own in the future like housing has become. Due to high costs of ownership many people may not be able to afford cars anymore.

new car sales i think that is already the case

[Pete]

There is already an emerging market for small, cheap EVs. It's why I've always thought the Chinese are going to end up dominating the lower end of the market. There are almost no entry-level ICE cars on the market because nobody is buying them; they all want SUVs and tons of features.

Younger people can't afford rent let alone a mortgage and it's only going to get tougher if they have some huge car payment.

Of course, few middle-aged and senior people in the U.S. bought a new car and lived in some Instagram fantasy apartment or house when they were in their 20s or even 30s. Lots of used cars are affordable (and modern cars tend to last almost forever) and there is plenty of cheaper housing if you are willing to work and be creative. If you aren't willing to make those compromises, it usually culminates in a huge amount of debt at a very young age, then good luck ever saving and buying a house.

[Plutonic Panda]

Nobody said anything like that.

The discussion is about the adoption of EVs and the overall evolution of the tech and batteries.

Europe sure seemed like they managed to get us(I say us as in IPhone users in the USA) to switch to USB C. And I am happy about that. I think Brazil followed suit.

[traxx]

There are almost no entry-level ICE cars on the market because nobody is buying them

It's a bit of a circular issue. No one's buying them because none are being made and none are being made because no one's buying them. Manufacturers decided to stop offering options and just make what brought the most margin. It's impossible to buy a regular pick up unless you're part of a fleet.

To me it feels like vehicles peaked about 1995-2005 or 10ish. They lasted long but weren't over engineered.

When my parents bought their brand new Acura MDX in 2016 it was over engineered. You had to go about 3 menus deep on the screen to adjust the AC. That takes your eyes off the road for several seconds. Tesla have the door handles that recess into the body looks cool but it's just one more thing to go wrong and serves no real purpose. The reason all modern cars have screens is because they're so much cheaper than knobs and buttons. Now you're depending on software and not the mechanics of the vehicle. And as we saw a few weeks ago with CrowdStrike, it ain't all that difficult for a programmer to mess up some keystrokes and cause a catastrophic error.

I don't really mean for it to sound like I don't like change and I'm yelling at clouds, but it seems like a lot of vehicle design these days serves no practical purpose than to increase manufacturers margins.

[Pete]

^

There were plenty of lower-priced cars for decades and they have systematically been phased out because no one was buying them; at least not in the U.S.

Manufacturers don't suddenly drop cars when they are selling well.

[CaptDave]

There is already an emerging market for small, cheap EVs. It's why I've always thought the Chinese are going to end up dominating the lower end of the market. There are almost no entry-level ICE cars on the market because nobody is buying them; they all want SUVs and tons of features.

GM messed up by discontinuing, then "pausing", production of the Bolt. It was a pretty good small EV that seemed perfectly suited for running around town. Hopefully they will make it more viable (more range, faster charging) to improve its road trip capability; and reduce or keep the cost relatively close to what it was a couple years ago. That last part will be the tough one.

[OKCRealtor]

Younger people can't afford rent let alone a mortgage and it's only going to get tougher if they have some huge car payment.

Of course, few middle-aged and senior people in the U.S. bought a new car and lived in some Instagram fantasy apartment or house when they were in their 20s or even 30s. Lots of used cars are affordable (and modern cars tend to last almost forever) and there is plenty of cheaper housing if you are willing to work and be creative. If you aren't willing to make those compromises, it usually culminates in a huge amount of debt at a very young age, then good luck ever saving and buying a house.

This is so true. It's the biggest difference I see from when I bought my first house in 09 fast forwarding through today. The people who weren't willing to make the sacrifices and can't see past the present only to YOLO everyday are so screwed now. We have such a bifurcated economy and classes now and it's going to get much, much worse.

[Pete]

This is so true. It's the biggest difference I see from when I bought my first house in 09 fast forwarding through today. The people who weren't willing to make the sacrifices and can't see past the present only to YOLO everyday are so screwed now. We have such a bifurcated economy and classes now and it's going to get much, much worse.

You see all these 20-somethings driving around in new, expensive cars eating out several times a day then complaining about the lack of affordable housing.

It's only unaffordable if you are saddled with auto and credit card debt. Otherwise, not that hard to save up, buy a starter house, and systematically improve it. THEN you can eventually upgrade to a brand new place out of a magazine.

Talk to anyone over 45 about the car they drove when first out of college, or their old apartment or even first house. I assure you it wasn't a $50K SUV or a new apartment/home in a hip urban neighborhood.

[BoulderSooner]

Talk to anyone over 45 about the car they drove when first out of college, or their old apartment or even first house. I assure you it wasn't a $50K SUV or a new apartment/home in a hip urban neighborhood.

this is so so so true ..

[fortpatches]

this is so so so true ..

I am under 45, but my first car out of college was the brand new one I got starting college for $11.5k. That is about $19k adjusted for inflation. The current base model for that same car line is like $24k now. So $5k more than inflation.

This data is about 5yrs out of date or so, but less than about 1% of new vehicle buyers are 25yo or younger. And 93% of new SUV buyers are home owners.
Automotive Trends: New Car Buyer Demographics (hedgescompany.com)

[fortpatches]

You see all these 20-somethings driving around in new, expensive cars eating out several times a day then complaining about the lack of affordable housing.

It's only unaffordable if you are saddled with auto and credit card debt. Otherwise, not that hard to save up, buy a starter house, and systematically improve it. THEN you can eventually upgrade to a brand new place out of a magazine.

Talk to anyone over 45 about the car they drove when first out of college, or their old apartment or even first house. I assure you it wasn't a $50K SUV or a new apartment/home in a hip urban neighborhood.

If you use the classic ~1/3 of your income should be your mortgage payment:
Median OKC income = ~$37k
So suggested mortgage <=~$1028/mo
So home price for that rate ~ $115k.

Since I just have Zillow access, based on Zillow just now, there are only 112 houses less than or equal to $150k in OKC. (I can't search for homes that are <$115k).

So, there are only about 112 houses in OKC that are "affordable" at the MEDIAN income.

I am pretty sure that OKC has more than 112 people looking for "affordable" housing. . . .

[Pete]

^

$37,000 / 12 *.33 = $1,017.

At 6% and 30 years, you can borrow $169,710. Assuming 20% down, that's $212,000 in purchasing power.

There are TONS of affordable starter homes and condos throughout the OKC area in this price range, and we are talking about ONE person.


If you use the far more realistic median HOUSEHOLD income in OKC, that's $63,700. Using the same formulas gives you a buying power of $365,000.