General Weather Discussion - April 2014

[Jim Kyle]

Pretty much all over now at NW 122 and Council...

[woodyrr]

Heavy rain - pea size hail SW Midwest City


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[PennyQuilts]

Any idea when and where the storms are likely to fire up east of us?

[Dennis Heaton]

Any idea when and where the storms are likely to fire up east of us?

LOL!! Ya done slept through em, PQ! They came through Hefner and Council at exactly 5:59 this A.M. :-)

[venture]

So far looks like Oklahoma may be in good shape for tomorrow. Dryline is already to Tulsa down to Madill. People west of that line are clear for tomorrow. Hopefully the early storms worked things over to keep instabilities down. We'll have to see how things evolve though. Dryline trying to fill in south of Tulsa and might find some recovered air to play in this afternoon.

[Bunty]

So far looks like Oklahoma may be in good shape for tomorrow. Dryline is already to Tulsa down to Madill. People west of that line are clear for tomorrow. Hopefully the early storms worked things over to keep instabilities down. We'll have to see how things evolve though. Dryline trying to fill in south of Tulsa and might find some recovered air to play in this afternoon.

For some education, what determines where the dryline is if one can't go by dewpoint? Because in nearly all the eastern half of Oklahoma the dewpoint is near 60 or over as of 11:15am.

[venture]

For some education, what determines where the dryline is if one can't go by dewpoint? Because in nearly all the eastern half of Oklahoma the dewpoint is near 60 or over as of 11:15am.

Yeah good catch, I was looking at the winds starts to shift to the southwest as a sign the dryline was approaching/moving through. The storms on the northern edge pushed ahead of the dryline, so yeah the north end is still about 40 miles further west. Southern part of it is still going to be down around Madill.

Regardless looks like new development isn't happening on the northern portion compared to the south. Short term models keep redevelopment confined to EC and SE OK for the rest of the day.

[venture]

What will likely be a PDS Red box...will be issued soon.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0420
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NERN TX THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL ARKANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271725Z - 271930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL ALSO BECOME LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MESOSCALE AND
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 19Z-20Z.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A PACIFIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ERN KS SWD THROUGH CNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL TX. A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM NRN MS THROUGH CNTRL ARKANSAS. THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THESE
BOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS A STRONG LLJ ADVECTS UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS NWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...THE RATE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN SLOWED BY MULTILAYER CLOUDS
INCLUDING STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES
SHOW NUMEROUS CLOUD BREAKS...AND THE STRATUS DECK OVER CENTRAL
ARKANSAS MAY EVENTUALLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTH. AN AXIS OF 1500-2500
J/KG MLCAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A PRE-FRONTAL BELT OF ASCENT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EWD
PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVE CONTINUES FROM WRN ARKANSAS THROUGH NWRN
TX. MEANWHILE AN UPPER JET STREAK ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH NRN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES AS WELL AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY
FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AXIS OF
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE IN WARM SECTOR...AS WELL AS ALONG THE PACIFIC
FRONT. STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER JET AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE
HAIL. THE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS APPEAR MAXIMIZED ACROSS CNTRL AR WHERE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY BEING REINFORCED BY ELEVATED CONVECTION.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/27/2014

[venture]

Standard Watch...non-PDS.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 97
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
EXTREME NORTHERN LOUISIANA
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF HARRISON
ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 94...WW 95...WW 96...

DISCUSSION...COMPLICATED SCENARIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THREAT
FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS LONG THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT IN ERN OK/NE TX...AND NEAR AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AR. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TIME...AND WILL SUPPORT A
STRONG TORNADO RISK BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN AR. OTHERWISE...THE MORE
INTENSE SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	High (90%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Mod (60%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Mod (30%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Mod (60%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

[Easy180]

Guess we got real lucky these came in the morning instead of afternoon...Weather Watch on FB says no storms for the next 9 days...Be fine with a below average precip in May followed by an above average June

[venture]

Guess we got real lucky these came in the morning instead of afternoon...Weather Watch on FB says no storms for the next 9 days...Be fine with a below average precip in May followed by an above average June

That doesn't mean we'll get away from severe weather if you try to stack the precip in June.

As far as quiet for the next 9 days...ehhh. Maybe. The GFS Ensemble members are pretty well together suggestion quiet until the 6th of May then they start splitting up with some bringing in storms after that. So yeah...possible we could go that long, but we'll just have to see.

[bchris02]

Guess we got real lucky these came in the morning instead of afternoon...Weather Watch on FB says no storms for the next 9 days...Be fine with a below average precip in May followed by an above average June

I agree. Hopefully we can get some good rains out of the northwest flow like we did last year. This morning's rain did a lot of good. Ponds and creeks near where I live that have been dry for a long time now are flowing again.

[venture]

The first high risk of the year...

[ou48A]

When is our next chance of serious rain?

I'm digging a big hole in my back yard early next week on May 6th so I could use a stretch of dry weather.....
but we are so desperately dry that I think it's going to take tropical rains to really break the back of the drought on the great plains.

[venture]

When is our next chance of serious rain?

I'm digging a big hole in my back yard early next week on May 6th so I could use a stretch of dry weather.....
but we are so desperately dry that I think it's going to take tropical rains to really break the back of the drought on the great plains.

May 6th-ish. Subject to change of course.

At this point our only hope against the drought would probably be a landfalling storm in the Gulf this year.

[venture]

Sure why not...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
229 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

OKZ004>007-009>012-014>018-021>024-033>038-TXZ083>085-087-280100-
/O.NEW.KOUN.DU.Y.0001.140427T1929Z-140428T0100Z/
/O.CON.KOUN.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-140428T0100Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-
CANADIAN-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-KNOX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...CHEYENNE...T ALOGA...
WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONGA...KINGFISHER...ELK CITY...SAYRE...
CORDELL...ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...HOLLIS...
MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...FREDERICK...LAWTON...QUA NAH...
CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON...MUNDAY...KNOX CITY
229 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A BLOWING DUST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST TO WEST 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 55 MPH.
THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 4 PM.

* VISIBILITIES: 1/2 TO 3 MILES AT TIMES. VISIBILITIES MAY LOCALLY
BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO NEAR OPEN FIELDS.

* IMPACTS: TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL OR IF YOU ARE WORKING OR PLAYING
OUTSIDE.

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL.

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
NUMEROUS TORNADOES EXPECTED WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF DE QUEEN
ARKANSAS TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 95...WW 96...WW 97...WW
98...WW 99...

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE NEAR THE RED RIVER IN SE OK...WHILE OTHER CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER S IN NE TX THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ENEWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND
MATURE...AND WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR TORNADOES IN AR. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS VERY STRONG ALONG A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AR...AND THE LOW LEVELS
WILL SLOWLY WARM AND MOISTEN IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION.
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LONG TRACK...STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES WELL INTO
THE EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	High (80%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Mod (30%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Mod (60%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

[Anonymous.]

Going to be chaotic day in AR.

[venture]

Here comes the dust...

[venture]

Storm moving towards Spencerville and Rattan in SE OK starting to show signs of getting ready to spin up. Nice arc on the bottom side of the storm, hail size increasing...would expect velocity to start showing signs as well.

[venture]

Cell is now tornado warned

[ou48A]

The national weather service in tulsa has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Northeastern choctaw county in southeast oklahoma...
South central pushmataha county in southeast oklahoma...
* until 500 pm cdt

* at 411 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm with strong low level
rotation that could produce a tornado at any time was located near
messer...and moving northeast at 35 mph.

[venture]

If you know anyone by Joplin - call them!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
549 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...


* UNTIL 615 PM CDT


* AT 548 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR GALENA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.


THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.


HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND NEAR
GALENA. DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN BAXTER SPRINGS.


SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.


IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE
HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...
BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION
POSSIBLE.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AIRPORT DRIVE...ALBA...ASBURY...BAXTER SPRINGS...BROOKLYN
HEIGHTS...CARL JUNCTION...CARTERVILLE...CARTHAGE...CARYTOWN...
CRESTLINE...DENNIS ACRES...DUQUESNE...GALENA...IRON GATES...
JASPER...JOPLIN...LAKESIDE...LAWTON...LOWELL...NEC K CITY...
NEUTRAL...OAKLAND PARK...ORONOGO...PURCELL...RIVERTON...SHOAL CREEK
DRIVE...WACO AND WEBB CITY.

[venture]

[Klop]

May 6th-ish. Subject to change of course.

At this point our only hope against the drought would probably be a landfalling storm in the Gulf this year.

I thought I heard we could possibly be looking at an El Nino pattern this summer. Is that not the case any longer?