Oklahoma Weather Discussion - February/March 2013

[ou48A]

KWTV CH9 is showing galloping power lines near Watonga

[Bunty]

Much of the area between Oklahoma City and Tulsa is in a dry slot now. If there it would be a good time to get out to get what you need before snow sets in tonight.

[venture]

Made a quick snap shot to show what is going on. Can see the newer bands of precip form down to the SE through the Ada area. The dry slot is filling in pretty good now west of that area. A little dry area still back in Western OK, but don't be fooled by this image. When you click over the FDR site, it'll show precip over all of SW OK except for Caddo Co. So its pretty well filled in now. More mPING reports of snow in the Metro area so we probably aren't far from change over. These showers moving North from the SW will likely had a decent amount of sleet in them.

[AP]

Snow flakes starting to fall downtown...

Tilly, how hard is it coming down? I still have to commute back to Stillwater, wondering when I should leave.

[Decious]

12Z-WRF-NMM

http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nm...loop_1hour.gif

This mid-level drying in eastern OK is not a surprise. It's the reason that the Tulsa NWS has been conservative with headlines. If the comma head holds and reforms as Anonymous mentioned and as this reflectivity simulation shows... we'll get good snow here in OKC. Perhaps REALLY good snow.

[tillyato]

Tilly, how hard is it coming down? I still have to commute back to Stillwater, wondering when I should leave.

Hard to tell exactly, I'm up in one of the towers and we're engulfed in a cloud now. When I could see the precipitation earlier I would say a flurry, no real accumulation yet, but could definitely see snow flakes. The other guys on her could better answer as to timing of snowfall over the next few hours though...

[venture]

@pmarshwx Patrick Marsh 13 mins
National Weather Center Microwave Radiometer shows cooling aloft…but also drying. pic.twitter.com/3N7zEXGbws

[OKCisOK4me]

Still a big phat NOTHING at NW 23rd & Meridian...

[OKCRT]

@pmarshwx Patrick Marsh 13 mins
National Weather Center Microwave Radiometer shows cooling aloft…but also drying. pic.twitter.com/3N7zEXGbws

So what's it gonna be? Is the storm gonna gather force or fall apart over OKC? Any snow predictions?

[ou48A]

Mike Morgan feels the metro will only receive 1 to 3 inches of snow.

[OKCisOK4me]

Mike Morgan feels the metro will only receive 1 to 3 inches of snow.

That's fine by me!

I'll be making a sign that says "I Survived Winter-Weather-Warning--Actually-Just-A-Good-Solid-Rain-Pocalypse 2013"

[venture]

So what's it gonna be? Is the storm gonna gather force or fall apart over OKC? Any snow predictions?

Dryslot is overhead right now, which is why that image shows moisture decreasing. However this should start to move out. As these bands of precip start moving in that will help to moisten things back up.

[BrettM2]

37* and rain in Edmond. That's how it's been for the past 30-45 min.

[Decious]

Mike Morgan feels the metro will only receive 1 to 3 inches of snow.

Ha ha! I'd be cool with that too. But I don't feel that will happen. Unless something magical happens like the low spinning down right where it is... or the low accelerating incredibly fast and outrunning it's precip shield instead of dragging it along like it's probably gonna do. I respect Mike... I remember being a kid watching him on May 3rd, but I think he's wrong. But... if he sees that he's wrong... he'll revise his thinking and let us know. The low has to move east... pressure falls are already occurring near the ArkLaTex. Dry slot will move east. Snow bands will move east. For us to not get snow here in OKC the low would have to do something unprecedented. IMO.

[zookeeper]

Venture, Would it be a fair statement that things are in such a flux that nobody, at this point, really knows what's going to happen in Oklahoma City?

[PennyQuilts]

34.9 degrees in far SW OKC - the rain is fat. I thought it was going to turn to snow a few minutes ago but it hasn't made up its mind what it wants to do. In fact, in the past couple of minutes it sort of slacked off.

[kelroy55]

Channel 5 predictor for 11PM tonight

[venture]

Venture, Would it be a fair statement that things are in such a flux that nobody, at this point, really knows what's going to happen in Oklahoma City?

I think at this point it is a bias of forecasters who rely on models to tell them what is going on to those that practice a more "nowcasting" type of approach. Here we are more of the nowcast bunch that adjusts quickly to trends we start to see and pass on those signs. We also have to keep in mind that Winter storms don't happen all the time down here so the amount of experience isn't going to be there. Plus we tend to see more complex systems, not taking anything away from the Great Lakes or Northeast though.

My main concern right now is to see how the dryslot is overcome. We are seeing precip expand now in the NE quadrant of the low's circulation. The doughnut hole of dry air over Caddo County is filling in extremely fast. We also have to take into consideration this low isn't moving much at all. It is maybe now just getting into Southern Jefferson Co, OK.

So no, I wouldn't say it is fair to say we don't know what is going to happen...within reason. However, some you'll find will be stubborn on their forecasts and just fall on the sword and use "amg supernatural cosmic waves of gas came in..." excuses.

[RadicalModerate]

34.9 degrees in far SW OKC - the rain is fat. I thought it was going to turn to snow a few minutes ago but it hasn't made up its mind what it wants to do. In fact, in the past couple of minutes it sort of slacked off.

And so goes the life of a Weather Prognosticator . . . =)
(i think that radio gary england and his miraculous thunder lizard back around '82 had a fair chance of being exactly right.)

No "dis" intended nor implied to Mr. V.
You never "panic". You only tell the truth the best way you can.
(and i, for one, appreciate that fact)

(i simply hope that the strange stuff falling from the sky doesn't turn on us and become ice . . . no way that would be good.)

[OKCisOK4me]

Decious, maybe Mike Morgan is thinking that the backside of the Low is going to break up like it has been doing in the Texas panhandle. If that's the case, then a whopping 1-3" is our best shot.

[BrettM2]

Channel 5 predictor for 11PM tonight

Guessing that's going forward? Another 4-5" in Amarillo will take it to almost two feet. Crazy.

Can't tell if the precip in Edmond is fatter rain or the beginning of the snow transition. Either way, its heavier though.

[OKCRT]

Channel 5 predictor for 11PM tonight

It looks like the big storm stalled before it really made it to OKC. Looks like it's hanging around to the west and dry air moving into central Ok.

[zookeeper]

I think at this point it is a bias of forecasters who rely on models to tell them what is going on to those that practice a more "nowcasting" type of approach. Here we are more of the nowcast bunch that adjusts quickly to trends we start to see and pass on those signs. We also have to keep in mind that Winter storms don't happen all the time down here so the amount of experience isn't going to be there. Plus we tend to see more complex systems, not taking anything away from the Great Lakes or Northeast though.

My main concern right now is to see how the dryslot is overcome. We are seeing precip expand now in the NE quadrant of the low's circulation. The doughnut hole of dry air over Caddo County is filling in extremely fast. We also have to take into consideration this low isn't moving much at all. It is maybe now just getting into Southern Jefferson Co, OK.

So no, I wouldn't say it is fair to say we don't know what is going to happen...within reason. However, some you'll find will be stubborn on their forecasts and just fall on the sword and use "amg supernatural cosmic waves of gas came in..." excuses.

Thank you. Good explanation and I looked up nowcasting and have a better understanding. I sure appreciate your efforts here!

[venture]

Latest Wind report...Won't be shocked to see Canadian and Grady upgraded to a Blizzard Warning if the wind keeps up.

[Anonymous.]

That predictor thing is garbage, that image looks like it is from last night. It is completely moved out of W TX Panhandle, that graphic makes my brain hurt.



It looks as if the low is finally starting a jog N of E, so an ENE movement.

OKC getting decent snow all depends on how the deformation zone sets up. Right now it looks like it is coming to fruition in SW OK into NW TX. This is all new, moderate to heavy precip. If you want to know how it is doing, look @ Ardmore to Lawton to Altus, this is where the precip will redevelop on itself throughout the evening if we are to get good snow.


OKC being stuck in the mid 30s for most of the day has allowed ground temperatures to stay in the upper 30s... The temperature barrier is really bizzare to me.