April 2021 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

My guess is bulk of shower and storms will be gone by Saturday morning for the state. Cooler with some low clouds likely until afternoon.

[jn1780]

Enhanced risk for metro area today. Main threats are wind and hail.

[SEMIweather]

HRRR is consistently showing a very stormy evening with multiple rounds moving through the Metro between 4 p.m. and Midnight. Best chance of wind damage should come with the last round around 8-11 p.m. particularly if it organizes into a bow echo before moving through the area. Could also see some hail, especially with the earlier elevated storms which will likely lift northeast through the area between 4:00 and 7:00. Tornado threat looks very low and would likely be limited to weak spinups within the bow echo. Finally, some street flooding looks possible given the duration of the event.

All precipitation should end by sunrise at the latest, and clouds will decrease throughout the day tomorrow giving us a beautiful spring weekend.

[kukblue1]

What SEMIweather said. I would again on the quick spin up tornadoes expect for maybe something down around Altus/Lawton/Wichita Falls. Something down there might MIGHT be a little stronger.

[Anonymous.]

Today, early evening the threat will be hail from supercells moving NNE with the warm front from SW and S OK. Best area for this looks to be around Norman and just south. But all of OKC should watch the radar.

Later in the night, we will likely have a damaging wind MCS event coming out of W OK.

[SEMIweather]

What SEMIweather said. I would again on the quick spin up tornadoes expect for maybe something down around Altus/Lawton/Wichita Falls. Something down there might MIGHT be a little stronger.

Yeah, should have added that my post was specific to the OKC Metro. The Texoma area around Lawton, Altus, Wichita Falls, etc. will be in the warm sector for a longer period of time and does have a higher tornado threat.

[SEMIweather]

First round of storms is just over an hour away from OKC. Intensifying, but not yet severe at this time

[OKCisOK4me]

That was kinda weak...

[SEMIweather]

Last few runs of the HRRR have been showing a less organized convective system this evening which would reduce the wind threat. Should be a good rainmaker either way, expecting widespread 0.5” - 1.5” totals with isolated areas approaching the 2” mark.

[Pete]

C'mon rain!!

[FighttheGoodFight]

Getting pretty soaked in Norman for the last few hours. Thank you rain. I will ask for just rain please, none of those super heavy winds!

[SEMIweather]

Next round of storms currently along a Chickasha to Purcell line is looking more promising from a rain perspective. This should lift NNE and affect most of the Metro over the next hour. Western suburbs might miss out.

[Anonymous.]

That should be the bulk of severe chances for OKC. Big time storms down in SW OK and NW TX.

We should see generic storms continue to develop and move across C OK as the low tracks directly over us. Really nice rainfall!

[TheTravellers]

Not really nice rainfall, OG&E sucks, barely even rained around 36th/May and power's out, so ****ing tired of their crappy infrastructure around this area.

[Plutonic Panda]

Is that it? We barely got anything in north Edmond

[SEMIweather]

No, the arc of storms currently out in the Texas Panhandle will be our main action later this evening. Remains to be seen how severe they’ll be, but we’ll almost certainly get some more storms regardless.

[Plutonic Panda]

Okay thanks for the response. I’m looking forward to some good gully washers.

[SEMIweather]

Yeah, hoping for something good. Of course after I said in an earlier post that the western suburbs might get missed, that ended up being exactly where the main storm in the complex tracked lmao. So Yukon got about 0.75”, rest of the Metro anywhere from 0.10-0.30” or so.

[kukblue1]

Have to throw KOCO under the bus. Sorry if anyone on this board is from KOCO but last night Damon and this morning Conder were saying we are likely going to see tornado warnings in the metro. Now they did say if the one computer model panned out but still saying stuff like that is total BS . People are just going to hear the big stuff. We haven't and probably won't even go under a Thunderstorm watch.

[Bunty]

Most of Stillwater as of 11:30 pm has gone over 1 inch of rain, according to wunderground stations.

[C_M_25]

David Payne has been hyping Tuesday’s storm since last week. Curious what the thought is so far from the group. Definitely looks like a system is moving in. Curious if it will be the tornado outbreak that news 9 has been predicting for a week now.

[kukblue1]

Meteorologist Damon Lane ()posted on facebook Sunday Morning)

Tuesday PM: SLIGHT RISK for all areas in yellow(with a good chance of an upgrade to ENHANCED) . Tornadoes and very large hail possible. The severe risk will remain overnight with a decreasing tornado risk and increase in hail and heavy rain.

This is the kind of crap I'm talking about. Map was OKC west. It's only Sunday morning and he is talking about an Enhanced risk and Tornadoes. The weather models don't even agree yet on what is going to happen. If you listen to the National Weather Service they even say so. Here is the NWS: A broad, high amplitude trough
will approach from the west on Tuesday and Wednesday, but as can
be the case this time of year with the evolution and progression
of cutoff lows, models are depicting quite a bit of differences in
potential/timing of severe weather. What they do agree on is the
potential for a long duration heavy rain event with the potential
for flooding becoming the main story mid to late week. The GFS is
faster, keeping more energy in the main band of westerlies and
allowing a cold front to move across the region late on Tuesday,
consolidating convection ahead of and along this front Tuesday
night and Wednesday. The potential for severe weather and flooding
rains would be mainly confined to central and southern parts of
Oklahoma, with heaviest rains over southeast Oklahoma into
northeast Texas. The ECM is much slower with both the front and
progression of the upper low, yielding a larger area for potential
severe weather (all of Oklahoma and western north Texas) and
continued heavy rain potential all the way through Friday. The
WRF/NAM is closer to the GFS through the end of its run, but much
stronger with the cap on Tuesday and suppressing most if not all
convection ahead of the front. Current forecast has PoPs across a
broad region from late Tuesday through late Thursday, and given
uncertainty, this will not be changed much.

It's sweep coming up so HYPE HYPE HYPE is what they do. Even though if you call them out on it they will say it's not hype but it's hype

[jn1780]

Tuesday is a big deal..............4 days ago

As often happens as you get closer to an event, models start getting a better handle on it. Now it looks more like a heavy rain maker.

[SEMIweather]

Agree, looks like a heavy rain threat, maybe some isolated severe weather but certainly not looking like a big tornado threat.

[kukblue1]

Just waves of storms as I see it right now with very little Severe Weather. There still a few models out there are trying to say we have big storms but MEH. Too many negatives than positive IMO