March 2021 - General Weather Discussion

[kukblue1]

Has anyone notice the Slight risk already by the SPC for Tuesday. There been no hype either cause I think it has caught them by surprise as there was no mention of it yesterday even by spc. It's events that don't get hyped are the ones I worry about.

[Bill Robertson]

Has anyone notice the Slight risk already by the SPC for Tuesday. There been no hype either cause I think it has caught them by surprise as there was no mention of it yesterday even by spc. It's events that don't get hyped are the ones I worry about.

GFS and NAM models show the system as just being rain. Nothing close to severe. I don't think anyone is missing anything.

[kukblue1]

GFS and NAM models show the system as just being rain. Nothing close to severe. I don't think anyone is missing anything.

SPC doesn't throw out a slight risk 3 days ahead just cause. There has to be something there or possibly there. Might just be hail and wind but that was more than got from this last event that they hyped for 5 days. Major Tornado outbreak also possible for Mississippi and Alabama from the same system

[Bill Robertson]

SPC doesn't throw out a slight risk 3 days ahead just cause. There has to be something there or possibly there. Might just be hail and wind but that was more than got from this last event that they hyped for 5 days. Major Tornado outbreak also possible for Mississippi and Alabama from the same system

Did you read the entire advisory. It doesn't discuss much risk. Nothing like three days before the last system.

[kukblue1]

Did you read the entire advisory. It doesn't discuss much risk. Nothing like three days before the last system.

True but they also got it very wrong. at least for Central Oklahoma It was supposed to be a central Oklahoma event 3 days out. I even mentioned on here that it was pushing further and further west. There was no reason for all the hype the night before.. It was pretty obvious it was going to be a Texas Panhandle event. Not saying there is a reason to hype this event either but it seem to be an after thought cause there is no mention of a possible tornado outbreak. We get some moisture return and this could be a pretty decent event. Better than last event.

[Bill Robertson]

True but they also got it very wrong. at least for Central Oklahoma It was supposed to be a central Oklahoma event 3 days out. I even mentioned on here that it was pushing further and further west. There was no reason for all the hype the night before.. It was pretty obvious it was going to be a Texas Panhandle event. Not saying there is a reason to hype this event either but it seem to be an after thought cause there is no mention of a possible tornado outbreak. We get some moisture return and this could be a pretty decent event. Better than last event.

Not from the current models. We'll see.

[kukblue1]

Just looked at a few things Quickly. Looks like we will get a line of storms after dark. Some models show them blowing up i-35 east some have them West of metro we shall see just keep an eye out for Tuesday. https://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/...9.22|ml|severe

[kukblue1]

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx...e=202103142347 If we can get some moisture return on Tuesday that is the big question right now . Our Dewpoint right now on Sunday evening is 25 very low.

[Anonymous.]

Like others have mentioned. Tuesday evening looks like another chance for storms. Looks like a probably broken line of storms will try to develop out west and push east across the state. Highest chances once again being across NW and N OK.

[kukblue1]

Yes SPC now just has slight risk for Northwest Oklahoma the timing for central Oklahoma is all wrong. major tornado outbreak possible if you know anybody that lives in Mississippi Alabama Arkansas on Wednesday

[C_M_25]

Like others have mentioned. Tuesday evening looks like another chance for storms. Looks like a probably broken line of storms will try to develop out west and push east across the state. Highest chances once again being across NW and N OK.

It looks like there is plenty of instability from the modeled skew-t's. What gives? Is the storm system moving in too late in the day?

[kukblue1]

It looks like there is plenty of instability from the modeled skew-t's. What gives? Is the storm system moving in too late in the day?

Yes that map is for 2am in the morning. Moves into OKC 3-4am in the morning so not the best timing

[Bill Robertson]

Yes that map is for 2am in the morning. Moves into OKC 3-4am in the morning so not the best timing

Here's the 4AM shot of the same model run. It has the system pretty much breaking up between 2 and 4AM.

[kukblue1]

Yes it's coming thru at a not so good time for storms. However when the first go up in the state we need to watch out. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx...e=202103152050 Moisture return is there.

HRRR 18Z run showed a good line of storms in Western Oklahoma at 1am

[kukblue1]

Well a local Tv Meteorologist is saying storms form in Western Oklahoma from 7-8 and storms in OKC midnight. Not sure where they are getting that from as every model is showing storms forming around midnight but whatever draws attention to their channel I guess.

[kukblue1]

https://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/...9.55|ml|severe Not sure if this link will work but we are now pulling up PDS Tornado soundings for far western Oklahoma 1am. Not saying there is going to be a Tornado but the atmosphere is much more favorable then the event on Saturday at least for Oklahoma

[kukblue1]

Where is the HYPE. Just watch David Payne at 10 and he pretty much blew it off. KOCO is a 2 on the tornado scale but wasn't putting the fear of god into people like with Saturday event. Good old Aaron Tuttle for the win. https://aarontuttleweather.com/2021/...U6O26HriEcYfcw I don't know is he any good? I never really followed him. Tornado soundings are all over western Oklahoma from midnight until about 2 am.

[kukblue1]

I see you SPC with your 5% tornado risk I see you. I'm not trying to throw any local TV meteorologist under the bus I'm just trying to figure out how Saturday event got so hyped up that we had every Storm tracker out there everyone and were high on their tornado scale. All three Chief meteorologists were working and the risk really wasn't there. Now we fast forward 3 days and there is something possibly there for tomorrow morning and yet it doesn't really seem to be getting any attention at least as of Monday night weather forecast on the local news.

[Anonymous.]

Honestly SPC should place a small area of NW and N OK under Moderate risk. There will likely be 2-4 supercells in that region.

Meanwhile for the rest of the state, this will be a classic HILP event. High Impact, Low Probability. Storm development is less likely heading into WC and C OK. Some chances go up further across extreme S and SE OK.

Large hail will be the main threat with any discrete cells that do develop, tornado chances are non-zero with these storms as they are obviously rotating. But like mentioned above, NW and N OK should be ready.

[kukblue1]

Agree metro might not even see much rain. However if HRRR keeps holding on to them storms forming around 10:00 p.m. in Northwest Oklahoma like it has for about three or four computer runs I would not be surprised if there's a moderate risk. I think the reason might be is because everything is going to be so isolated and there's only going to be one or two storms

[Anonymous.]

SPC upgraded the area we discussed this morning to Enhanced Risk. Totally forgot about that category existing between Slight and Moderate.

Not much as changed, dangerous supercells NW and N OK. Small chance of development south into C OK, but if anything does develop, it will likely be severe.

[Anonymous.]

Two MDs out. 80% probability of a watch issued for NW OK. 40% for points south.

A single severe storm down in S TX PH. Towers going up across the rest of the panhandle. We will see what makes it over the couple hours.

[kukblue1]

Two MDs out. 80% probability of a watch issued for NW OK. 40% for points south.

A single severe storm down in S TX PH. Towers going up across the rest of the panhandle. We will see what makes it over the couple hours.

Is moisture the limiting factor right now?

[Anonymous.]

Hobart storm and storm going into Woodward are serious business right now. Big hail.

Lower level moisture has pulled back from NW OK. Thus, tornado threat low. Still nice and juicy south of there.

[Anonymous.]

Local spotters reporting brief spinups with Hobart cell. Currently new storm forming north of it.