February 2021 - General Weather Discussion

[jompster]

Mike Morgan said 14 in. plus a low as low as -15.

Mike Morgan also told half a million people to go get into their cars during a tornado outbreak.

[NikonNurse]

We still on that?

[Bunty]

Mike Morgan also told half a million people to go get into their cars during a tornado outbreak.

But it was over a rare EF-5 tornado. Those can blow away the whole house, leaving only the foundation. Where would you rather be then? Remaining at that house or hopefully on the road, headed south, getting away from the tornado, while hopefully not stuck stationery in a traffic jam? From those two infamous Moore tornadoes, I wonder how many of the dozens of deaths happened from the result of staying at home? Never mind the hundreds of injuries.

I think the main good those two infamous Moore tornadoes did was to encourage more people to make sure to have an at home tornado shelter available, so they won't have to decide if they really need to leave home in the event of a worse than usual tornado warning issued from a TV weather person. Because of the 1999 Moore tornado, I knew I had to have a safe room built in my new home in 2004. I'm grateful I have never yet had to go in there and lock the door over panic a tornado was about to come. Still quite glad it's there just in case.

[Bunty]

Forecast Discussion. NWS takes a middle of the road approach toward upcoming snow depths.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product...n=1&glossary=1

[Bunty]

Amazing how in 2017 on this date, Feb. 11, highs were in the 80s in Oklahoma.

[FighttheGoodFight]

Forecast Discussion. NWS takes a middle of the road approach toward upcoming snow depths.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product...n=1&glossary=1

One of the more important paragraphs of that for Sunday Monday

"That means there is an 24% chance Oklahoma City may exceed 8" of
snowfall (according to the NBM guidance). However, NBM seems a
little low on the snow to liquid ratios (~10:1 to 15:1 during the
event), so these probabilities might be a little underdone. The
NBM QPF is 0.49" and 0.51" for OKC and Wichita Falls,
respectively. Therefore, our official snowfall forecast is shifted
slightly higher than what those probabilities would suggest with
~6-10" (higher west and north where snow ratios are higher) with
the potential for locally higher amounts. Nevertheless, a slight
change in QPF will change these values. Therefore, I urge people
to be cautious on snowfall totals given the highly sensitive
forecast.

[stratosphere]

Amazing how in 2017 on this date, Feb. 11, highs were in the 80s in Oklahoma.

OMG i would so take this right now. I really really hate the bitter cold of winter. Luckily we don't get too much of that here in Oklahoma, but when we do, we really do.

[Bill Robertson]

Todays 12z GFS run drops the snow totals to 4 to 5 inches North and West of a line from Lawton to Muskogee and 6 to 7 inches South and East. Keep trending down!!!!

[PoliSciGuy]

NWS Norman's video update:

[kukblue1]

Todays 12z GFS run drops the snow totals to 4 to 5 inches North and West of a line from Lawton to Muskogee and 6 to 7 inches South and East. Keep trending down!!!!

Is that with a 10:1 ratio though. If so then you almost have to double it with a high of only 7. It's going to be fluffy and add up quickly. However it's going to have a lot of air in it also so as it keeps falling on its self it's going to collapse down. So even though 10 inches might fall by the time you measure it at the end of the event there might only be 7 on the ground. It's going to be next to impossible to measure anyway with the wind and how dry it's going to be.

[Anonymous.]

18Z data across multiple models is coming in now. Will post an update once we get it all.

[C_M_25]

Todays 12z GFS run drops the snow totals to 4 to 5 inches North and West of a line from Lawton to Muskogee and 6 to 7 inches South and East. Keep trending down!!!!

I kinda feel like this recent GFS run really changed the track of the storm quite a bit. It looks like it's taking a more southerly track which has reduced the snow in the NW part of the state. Seeing that, I'm starting to sense the iconic dry slot setting up and drastically reducing snow totals. I'm smelling a bust in the air.

[C_M_25]

In fact, the last 5 model iterations have been progressively tracking this storm further south each time. Curious what the NAM shows.

[Bill Robertson]

I kinda feel like this recent GFS run really changed the track of the storm quite a bit. It looks like it's taking a more southerly track which has reduced the snow in the NW part of the state. Seeing that, I'm starting to sense the iconic dry slot setting up and drastically reducing snow totals. I'm smelling a bust in the air.

I'm liking how you think. A bust would make my week, month and maybe year!

[FighttheGoodFight]

I am assuming even with no precip or light precip we still get the mother of all wind chills hitting us?

[BoulderSooner]

Todays 12z GFS run drops the snow totals to 4 to 5 inches North and West of a line from Lawton to Muskogee and 6 to 7 inches South and East. Keep trending down!!!!

is that based on 1:10 ratio or 1:20 ??

[Bill Robertson]

is that based on 1:10 ratio or 1:20 ??

10:1 but the real ratio probably won't really be known.

18z NAM-12km has total snow down to 4 inches for the metro. I hope this trend holds up.

[BoulderSooner]

10:1 but the real ratio probably won't really be known.

18z NAM-12km has total snow down to 4 inches for the metro. I hope this trend holds up.

i lived in boulder long enough to know that if the temp is 10 degrees the ratio is very likely to be 20:1 or higher ...

[Anonymous.]

Looking more and more like this storm is going to send a first round of heavy snow that develops somewhere out in W OK and tracks to the NE. Then there will be a short break before the next main wave of heavy snow comes in from the W. The track of the main low will determine who gets an additional dumping of snow. Right now that track is trending toward S/SE OK, so it may give the final blow to that part of the state. We will have to watch very closely as it evolves and ejects into Texas. There will be 1 or 2 main bands of very heavy snow that lay down the most hurt, the way these bands evolve and fluctuate will determine the heaviest snow pathing.

We will need to wait for the higher definition short-range models to load in for some run-to-run consistency. That will happen late tonight.

Right now if I had to guess, the GEM seems the most reasonable to me out of all of these models below.

Here are some maps that show dramatically different results:

[kukblue1]

i lived in boulder long enough to know that if the temp is 10 degrees the ratio is very likely to be 20:1 or higher ...

AMEN. 10-1 ratio is pretty dated. High is supposed to be 8 so we might even be pushing 25:1 ratio. I like NWS going with 6-10. The TV media of course is going with worse case which is possible but a rational person would go 8-10

[SEMIweather]

My semi-educated guess right now is 5-8" over the Metro. Models have definitely trended downwards with QPF in the last 24 hours. At the same time, I'm getting more interested in the potential midweek storm, although it's probably pointless to forecast that one until the first one moves out.

[kukblue1]

Some parts of the Metro have around an inch already just for the all day snow today. The fact that it as snowed all day with no storm system around is pretty amazing. And the little it I had at my house was fluffy. This stuff might pile up fast.

[NikonNurse]

heard a lot of it may be lake effect snow from Hefner/Overholser ?
Really?!

[Bunty]

So how bad and rare is it really? Well, ten years ago in a rare blizzard, Tulsa area got up to 21" of snow, but officially 14". Tulsa had a record low of -12. Oklahoma City got 12" of snow. Low in OKC got to -5.

[Bunty]

heard a lot of it may be lake effect snow from Hefner/Overholser ?
Really?!

Yeah, channel 9's David Payne showed on video how there was more snow on OKC streets affected by lake effect snow.