General Weather Discussion - February 2019

[Anonymous.]

This storm will be very nontraditional. It will be a fast moving low ejected out of the Rockies into the plains. The track will be nearly south to north and greatest impacts will be felt in the northern parts of CONUS. With that being said, it will still give us here in OK some precipitation, but it may not last long.

[Anonymous.]

Winter Storm Warning will likely be issued this afternoon. Models agreeing on freezing rain and snow for essentially everything along and north of I-44 corridor.

There is some models indicating potential for some heavier icing to occur just SE of I-44, but precipitation duration is still in question. We could easily see one bulk wave of snow and ice around lunchtime Tuesday, then nothing else the remainder of the day. NWS having hard time deciding what type of advisory to put out, but I think they will go with a blanket winter storm warning or possibly a standard "Winter Weather Advisory" for the entire area. This is what they did with last week's storm.

[sacolton]

What's the buzz ... tell me what's a-happenin'

[Anonymous.]

NWS going with Winter Weather Advisory for the majority of OUN viewing area.

314 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Mixed wintry precipitation will move into the area mid to
late Tuesday morning and last through the evening. Total snow
accumulations of up to 3 inches across northern Oklahoma are
expected, with a glaze of ice possible. Ice accumulations of up
to one tenth of an inch are expected across portions of western
North Texas into southwestern and central Oklahoma.

* WHERE...Most of Oklahoma and western north Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
hazardous conditions will likely impact the evening commute.

[Anonymous.]

Models tonight are increasing precipitation rates. We could see very heavy freezing rain and sleet here in C OK just before lunchtime. As mentioned earlier, this will likely be one big heavy wave of precipitation, then majority of it should move on out as the storm is going to be flying to the north. We will still likely have some wrap-around snow showers and flurries heading into the evening hours.

Models are really bad at forecasting sleet, so some of these graphs below are way overestimated, but these will give an idea of the areas where heaviest precipitation is expected.

[OKC Guy]

OKC Public Schools
@OKCPS
All classes have been cancelled for Tuesday, February 19, due to incoming winter weather. OKCPS Admin offices & Operations Center will also be closed. Stay safe and warm. #okwx
9:30 PM · Feb 18, 2019

——-

Mike Morgan
Mike Morgan
@MikeMorganKFOR
Here is the VERY latest folks! The weather outside is saying something, and it is looking like HIGHER OKC Metro snow totals compared to the 6PM News. I will have the latest at 10PM Monday. #OKWX
@KFOR
Mike Morgan

[OKC Guy]

NOAA:

Tuesday
Snow likely before noon, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet between noon and 3pm, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet after 3pm. High near 31. East wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday Night
Freezing drizzle likely before midnight. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 30. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 43. Southwest wind 3 to 7 mph.

[OKC Guy]

Really cool wind map save it. Works great on my iphone:

http://hint.fm/wind/

[OKC Guy]

Great one for storm season shows lightening strikes too

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_light...aps.php?map=30

[Anonymous.]

Short-Range model showing a really nice result from today's precipitation. Most of this will be sleet and freezing rain here in C OK. This will start as lighter showers and mist, then gradually a large wave will develop coming into S OK and sweep across the state south to north. After that we will have lingering drizzle and showers. Afternoon commute will be impacted.

[Bunty]

The snow is running behind schedule. It will be interesting to see if it works out as billed later this evening.

[Anonymous.]

The large wave is currently evolving along the Red River. This will expand and race northward. ETA into OKC metro is around 2pm with additional development overhead.

EDIT: NWS launches special weather balloon moments ago. The result is warm layer aloft is more prominent than forecast. So the precipitation type will be heavily skewed toward Freezing Rain and some sleet mixed in. Virtually no substantial snow will fall in C OK.

[Hollywood]

The large wave is currently evolving along the Red River. This will expand and race northward. ETA into OKC metro is around 2pm with additional development overhead.

EDIT: NWS launches special weather balloon moments ago. The result is warm layer aloft is more prominent than forecast. So the precipitation type will be heavily skewed toward Freezing Rain and some sleet mixed in. Virtually no substantial snow will fall in C OK.

This increasing the ice amount for the metro or does the delay in development keep us more on projections?

[Anonymous.]

Amounts of QPF still similar, but majority of precipitation likely to be freezing rain - thus less of an "accumulation of sleet/snow". Elevated surfaces and bridges/overpasses will be main impact.

[Bunty]

It's 33 in Stillwater as of 12:45pm. The forecast high was 31. It goes to show you how difficult it is to forecast exactly what winter weather precipitation is going to be like. If precip ever starts, they may make it dip to freezing. Where the upper level temps are doing only add to the complexity.

[Anonymous.]

Development occurring overhead now across all of C OK as the main wave of rain and some sleet will move in as the last hurrah later this afternoon.

[OKC Guy]

I know these are tricky it seems so far we averted a big ice storm. Might still happen and even overnight if moisture before dry spell. But it appears we dodged this one which is fine by me

[Bunty]

Light freezing rain in Stillwater. Roofs are turning white, streets are trying to turn slick. Temp has fallen to 31.

[Anonymous.]

I know these are tricky it seems so far we averted a big ice storm. Might still happen and even overnight if moisture before dry spell. But it appears we dodged this one which is fine by me

This was never forecast to be an icestorm. This low is moving in a rare direction and speed that is not traditional for OK winter storms. This was always just a 3-5 hour window of winter precipitation across parts of the state.

[KayneMo]

Moderate snowfall at my office in Edmond.

[corwin1968]

At 2:30, it's coming down pretty heavy in far NW OKC and all concrete surfaces are now covered

[stile99]

This was never forecast to be an icestorm. This low is moving in a rare direction and speed that is not traditional for OK winter storms. This was always just a 3-5 hour window of winter precipitation across parts of the state.

Quoting just because it bears repeating. At no point did I see anything resembling an icestorm in the forecast for the metro area. They were pretty clear it would be a mix, which is precisely what is falling in Mustang right now. Mostly freezing rain, but you can see some snow in the air. Ice was consistently in the forecast for far north Oklahoma, but not the metro. Even Morgan has been saying the problem is going to be the drive home in the afternoon, and that's the reason all the schools closed. Because of the illusion this morning that it would be good would collapse about the time school would be getting out. If Mike Morgan isn't drooling about doom and gloom, then saying we averted anything more sinister than falling down while getting the mail is a bit of a stretch.

[OSUPeterson]

Looks like down at Indian Hills/I35 it misted for about 2 hours, then rained sleet for about 20 min, followed by about 10 min of light snow and it has all seemed to stop already.... that was letdown in terms of precipitation. Temps seem to be around 34°F so Im guessing we wont even have to deal with much freezing until late tonight if the moisture stays on the roads...

[Anonymous.]

Heaviest wave of precipitation is done for C OK. We will see some backside redevelopment of wrap-around showers and freezing drizzle heading into the evening. Elevated surfaces and bridges will be the things to watch.

[OKC Guy]

This was never forecast to be an icestorm. This low is moving in a rare direction and speed that is not traditional for OK winter storms. This was always just a 3-5 hour window of winter precipitation across parts of the state.

Rephrase, any ice storm is a big one to me. I do know all predicted ice most was light glazing. And I know 50 mile turns can change it thus “averted”.

I just drove and roads are fine. Glad no major impacts and kids got a day off.