2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

[venture]

Fernand

[hr][/hr]

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive [hr][/hr]

Hurricane Wind Speed Probability

50-knot Wind Speed Probability

Trop Storm Wind Speed Probability

Maximum Wind Speed Probability

Warnings/Cone Interactive Map	Warnings/Cone Static Images	Warnings and Surface Wind	Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule	Wind History

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to zoom in – Download GIS data
Other images: 5-Day track on – 3-Day track on – 3-Day track off – Interactive
Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic

[venture]

TD 6 Upgraded to TS Fernand...

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013




...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND...


AROUND 630 PM CDT...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAD INCREASED TO AT LEAST 45 MPH...
75 KM/H...MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM FERNAND (PRONOUNCED
FAIR-NAHN).


A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 700 PM CDT...2300
UTC...TO INCREASE THE 12-HOUR INTENSITY TO 50 KT AND TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO MEXICO.


SUMMARY OF 630 PM CDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 95.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[venture]

Watching a developing Low over the Florida Keys drifting to the west right now. Colder cloud tops are starting to form over the central of circulation. Models don't give it much love, but NHC does have it at a 10% chance for development right now. Gulf is very warm so anything can happen.

Elsewhere looks like the ITCZ will start to pick up from the African coast into the Mid Atlantic. Could see a couple storms form out there if the medium range models aren't smoking anything. We are moving into peak season, so it is bound to get busy pretty quick.

[venture]

Invest 97 showing signs it might develop into something here in the next few days. Something to watch. Invest 96 off the coast of Africa is falling apart pretty quick.

[venture]

Three areas of concern...



Area over the Yucatan has a 10% chance to develop the next 24 hours and 30% over the next 5 days.

Invest 97 just east of the islands has a 50% chance to develop in the next 5 days. Most models take it along or north of the islands and then curves it NE before it gets to the Bahamas. Some models do have this eventually become a hurricane, so the track will be important for many.

Invest 98 is just off the African coast and has a low chance for development as well but should remain out to sea.

[venture]

TD 7 has arrived. This should recurve out to sea and not impact the mainland.

Tropical Depression SEVEN

[hr][/hr]

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive US Watch/Warning [hr][/hr]

Hurricane Wind Speed Probability

50-knot Wind Speed Probability

Trop Storm Wind Speed Probability

Maximum Wind Speed Probability

Warnings/Cone Interactive Map

Warnings/Cone Static Images

Warnings and Surface Wind

Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule

Wind History

[sacolton]

Invest 97 showing signs it might develop into something here in the next few days. Something to watch. Invest 96 off the coast of Africa is falling apart pretty quick.

C'mon, BAMS! You can do it! Bring that rain to us!

[venture]

Seven has been upgraded to Gabrielle...

WTNT42 KNHC 050236
TCDAT2


TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
1100 PM AST WED SEP 04 2013


THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A SMALL AREA
OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER
WHILE THE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THE LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE CYCLONE IS
EXCELLENT WITH AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE.


DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF GABRIELLE IS TILTED TO THE NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT...
WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D
RADAR. THIS TILTED STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 5 TO 10 KT SHOWN OVER THE CYCLONE
BY THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS MODEL ANALYSES. IN ADDITION...THE
DROPSONDE DATA SHOWED DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AROUND GABRIELLE. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
STATE OF THE CIRCULATION...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION...AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTHEAST OF
GABRIELLE...NOT MUCH STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
AIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASSUMING
THAT GABRIELLE SURVIVES...ONLY LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN
LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BELOW MUCH OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH SEEMS TOO HIGH GIVEN
THE INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE NHC FORECAST IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH DO NOT SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION AFTER
GABRIELLE MOVES NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.


THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE GLOBAL
HAWK DROPSONDE DATA SUGGEST IT REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY LOCATING THE
CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 320/7. THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE TRACK REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AS GABRIELLE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...FOLLOWED A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATE
IN THE PERIOD AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS
AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING
THIS PERIOD. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.


REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT 05/0300Z 17.0N 66.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 17.8N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 19.0N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 20.1N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 21.2N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 23.3N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 25.5N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 29.5N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH


$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Anonymous.]

Gabrielle is now basically dead.

[venture]

Crazy year for topical cyclones trying to get established.

Invest 99 should have advisories started later today. Air recon en route now.

[damonsmuz]

[venture]

Watch October and November be crazy.

[Anonymous.]

Man I sure am tired of us humans causing more and more extreme weather each year...

[venture]

Man I sure am tired of us humans causing more and more extreme weather each year...

Not to derail the thread, but I think any common sense would indicate as more carbon based lifeforms populate the planet, CO2 production is going to increase and lead to some warming. We also need to keep in mind that things go in cycles too. If we get things too out of whack, the planet will over correct and fix things (mass extinction event). We are just a blip on this pebble that only has about a billion years left until our star becomes a red giant and engulfs the planet.

Anyway...

Advisories starting soon on TD 8.

1. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS HAS ALLOWED IT TO STAY OVER WATER
AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 8 INCHES...IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND
TAMAULIPAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN A FEW SQUALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

[BrettM2]

If we get things too out of whack, the planet will over correct and fix things (mass extinction event). We are just a blip on this pebble that only has about a billion years left until our star becomes a red giant and engulfs the planet.

Just the perk I needed to make it through my Friday afternoon! Thanks venture!

[venture]

Just the perk I needed to make it through my Friday afternoon! Thanks venture!

Hey...I'm always hear to bring the good news!

[venture]

Tropical Depression EIGHT

[hr][/hr]

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive [hr][/hr]

Hurricane Wind Speed Probability

50-knot Wind Speed Probability

Trop Storm Wind Speed Probability

Maximum Wind Speed Probability

Warnings/Cone Interactive Map

Warnings/Cone Static Images

Warnings and Surface Wind

Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule

Wind History

[Anonymous.]

Averaging out against the last couple of years, is all!

[venture]

TD 9 is active now. Forecasts make this our first hurricane of the season.

Tropical Depression NINE

[hr][/hr]

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive [hr][/hr]

Hurricane Wind Speed Probability

50-knot Wind Speed Probability

Trop Storm Wind Speed Probability

Maximum Wind Speed Probability

Warnings/Cone Interactive Map

Warnings/Cone Static Images

Warnings and Surface Wind

Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule

Wind History

[Easy180]

TD 9 is active now. Forecasts make this our first hurricane of the season.

Tropical Depression NINE

[hr][/hr]

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive [hr][/hr]

Hurricane Wind Speed Probability

50-knot Wind Speed Probability

Trop Storm Wind Speed Probability

Maximum Wind Speed Probability

Warnings/Cone Interactive Map

Warnings/Cone Static Images

Warnings and Surface Wind

Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule

Wind History

First of the season in September? That pretty rare?

[venture]

TD 9 was upgraded to Humberto overnight. Still forecast to be our first hurricane...

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013


VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HUMBERTO STILL HAS AN
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY TWO ASCAT
PASSES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT THE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO
INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 KT. THIS
ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB.


HUMBERTO IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG AZORES HIGH AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE 280/10 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...GIVING WAY TO TWO CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS THAT WILL
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD BY DAY
3. AFTER THAT TIME...HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS NEAR THE
AZORES...FORCING HUMBERTO TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY
5. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE FIRST 48
HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGE WITH THE GFS...FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE...GFDL...AND HWRF INDICATING A SHARPER TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH. THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO ABATE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND THE THERMODYNAMICS APPEAR
SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE STRENGTHENING...BUT THAT IS COUNTERED BY THE
HWRF...GFDL...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE WHICH EITHER DO NOT OR
JUST BARELY MAKE HUMBERTO A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND IS JUST A TAD HIGHER THAN THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS UNCHANGED FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT 09/1500Z 13.6N 24.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 13.9N 25.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 14.5N 27.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 15.5N 28.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 17.3N 29.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 21.5N 30.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 24.5N 31.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 26.0N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH


$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

[venture]

Humberto is up to 60 mph and looking pretty good.



Remnants of Gabrielle are strengthening pretty quickly and a recon aircraft is going out later today.

1. SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES
SOUTH OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. IN ADDITION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IF
THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED ON
THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BRINGING IT OVER OR VERY NEAR BERMUDA
ON WEDNESDAY...AND INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE
REQUIRED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON.

[venture]

Advisories have restarted on Tropical Storm Gabrielle today. Forecast keeps it below hurricane strength. Warnings are up for Bermuda and it will eventually track near Nova Scotia and make landfall in Newfoundland, but it should be extratropical by then.



TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013


THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF GABRIELLE CONTINUES TO FEATURE VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS IN A CDO TYPE FEATURE. MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THIS
STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 25 KT OR SO OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
ANALYZED OVER THE SYSTEM BY UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB
AND SAB. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE GABRIELLE
THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE EXACT
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE.


THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS GABRIELLE REMAINS OVER SSTS ABOVE 27C WITH
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING
AND AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY 96
HOURS. GABRIELLE SHOULD DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY DAY 5.


THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10...AS THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A MID/UPPER-
LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. THE FORWARD MOTION OF GABRIELLE WILL SLOW AS
THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN GRADUALLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY 48 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...GABRIELLE
WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IN 3-4 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN TRENDS A
LITTLE SLOWER AT DAYS 3 AND 4...LYING BETWEEN THE FASTER ECMWF AND
THE SLOWER TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT 10/1500Z 30.6N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 31.9N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 33.1N 65.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 34.0N 65.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 35.2N 66.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 39.5N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 49.0N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[venture]

INVEST 93 in the Western Caribbean is becoming one to watch. Models have this becoming a tropical cyclone over the next few days. New GFS this morning has landfall on Sunday in Northern Mexico/Southern Texas. 00Z run last evening brought the moisture up into OK by Wednesday the 18th. The 06Z run takes the moisture more over NE TX and into AR. The 12Z run is still going so will know more soon. 12Z NAVGEM is a bit slow and still has the system in the Bay of Campeche on Sunday.

Until the system gets going there is obviously going to be a lot of disagreements with the models.

[Anonymous.]

Some tropical moisture next week would be great!