Oklahoma Weather Discussion - August/September 2012

[OKCisOK4me]

Yea rain !!!!!

I know, I posted a pic on my Facebook and made the caption "RRRRAAAAIIIINNNN!!!!"

[ou48A]

I received a drought busting 1/10 of an inch in my rain gage

[Roadhawg]

about all I got too but it was nice to see it

[bandnerd]

Well, that was interesting. The power went out yesterday evening before the storm even got here. The exact same thing happened last year in an August storm that did quite a bit of wind damage on this side of town.

We went out for a little while, and as we came back, we could see the OG&E guys working. The lights were literally coming on in front of us.

Rain was good, the cool air was definitely appreciated, and it was nice to have a change in the weather, however brief, from the hot, beating sun.

[venture]

Well some areas definitely got a lot of good rain yesterday, but Mom Nature hates Norman apparently. LOL Looking at the mesonet report for consecutive days with less than 0.10" of rain, Norman continues marching along at a state high of 62 days now. However the map shows how spotty it was with Spencer and North OKC stations now at 0 days.

Hopefully we are able to get more today. Slight risk is up for today over NE OK, though we could see the same as yesterday with isolated severe elsewhere with damaging winds.

[Roadhawg]

Last month was the hottest July on record for the US http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/08/us/tem...html?hpt=hp_t1

[SoonerDave]

We saw a beautiful, 20-minute (or so) rain about 6:15 or so yesterday. Gentle, sweet-smelling, rain. For the first time in years, I just stood on the front porch, listening to the drops hit the sidewalks and enjoying the aroma that only rain can provide. Won't bust the drought, of course, but man, I'll take it.

[HewenttoJared]

You know what was weird about that rain? It smelled like Fall rain because of all the dead leaves.

[HewenttoJared]

Last month was the hottest July on record for the US http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/08/us/tem...html?hpt=hp_t1

Hottest single month since measurement began.

[Bunty]

Hottest single month since measurement began.

So how many more record setting months like that are required to happen before conservatives start believing that global warming is real, rather than a hoax?

[Jon27]

So how many more record setting months like that are required to happen before conservatives start believing that global warming is real, rather than a hoax?

Don't start, this is a weather thread, not politics.

[venture]

Red Flag Warning is up now...winds are up and humidity has vanished pretty quickly.

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
143 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2012


...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...


.GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR.


OKZ016>031-033>041-044>046-050-TXZ083>090-100000-
/O.NEW.KOUN.FW.W.0013.120809T1843Z-120810T0000Z/
CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-
CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-
SEMINOLE-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-
GARVIN-MURRAY-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-LOVE-HARDEMAN-FOARD-
WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
143 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2012


...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.


* WIND...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH


* HUMIDITY...15 TO 20 PERCENT


* TEMPERATURE...95 TO 105


* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


FIRES MAY START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. REPORT SMOKE OR FIRE
TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.

[Dubya61]

twitter says there's a fire at Indian Hills Road and Sooner Road.

[venture]

Slight risk tomorrow roughly South and East of I-44.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2012

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN
OK...FAR N CENTRAL TX...AND EXTREME PORTIONS OF NWRN AR/SWRN MO/SERN
KS...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER SWRN QUEBEC
AT 12Z SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A NEWD TRACK DURING DAY 2
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...AND THE SWD
EXTENDING TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY 12Z MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER-MID
MS VALLEY REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER MT/WY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT/WY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM ERN SD TO WEST CENTRAL IL SUNDAY/
SUNDAY NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MO
VALLEY AND ACROSS KS/OK. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOW
IN WEST CENTRAL IL SWWD THROUGH ERN/SRN MO TO SERN OK AND NWRN TX BY
12Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE DEPARTING
CLOSED LOW/ERN TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL STATES.

...N TX/SRN AND ERN OK/WRN AR/ERN KS/MO...
THE SRN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING TOWARD THE
UPPER-MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO GLANCE AREAS AS FAR
SOUTH AS OK TO AR. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING E OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW GREATER MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD
ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BENEATH THE ERN EXTENT OF STEEPER
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. DESPITE
GENERALLY WEAK FORCING FORECAST THIS FAR S...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 F SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAKENING
INHIBITION SUPPORTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM N TX INTO NERN OK. MOST MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO
WITH THE 12Z WRF-NMM 4 KM INDICATING TSTM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-22Z
IN THIS CORRIDOR. STRENGTHENING WNWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A
FEW SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO BE HIGH BASED INITIALLY
WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AS THE SLY LLJ
INCREASES ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR SUNDAY EVENING...AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT.

FARTHER N INTO MO...LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD SUPPORT A TSTM POTENTIAL
AFTER DARK. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE...A WEAKENING
TREND IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER S OVER THE REST OF N TX...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WARM
LAYER /600-700 MB/ SHOULD TEND TO MAINTAIN A CAP WITH SWD EXTENT.
ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN N TO
CENTRAL TX WILL ALSO HAVE WEAKER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...LIMITING
STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE SUBSEQUENT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
THUS...THIS OUTLOOK...WHILE SHIFTING SEVERE PROBABILITIES SEWD INTO
PARTS OF N TX...MAINTAINS A LOW POTENTIAL /I.E. 5 PERCENT/.

[venture]

Nice area of scattered showers today helping to get things nice and damp...not much more than that right now. Amounts are very light and we are still going to get into the 90s/100s later to dry things up. Slight risk today remains essentially right along I-44 and to the east.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF OK/TX INTO
WESTERN MO/AR...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD/NEB
AND NORTHWEST KS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
IA/MO/EASTERN KS/OK BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO INITIATE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE
PRESENTLY OCCURRING OVER THIS REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY DELAY
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN AXIS OF MODERATE CAPE WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM SOUTHERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT BEGINS IMPINGING ON RICHER MOISTURE ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA.

[SoonerDave]

Hey, Venture, aren't we getting closer to our secondary fall severe weather season?

Memories of standing under the east deck at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium during some evening monsoons hitting amid a few early-season games in Norman the last couple of years reminded me that time is approaching..

[venture]

Hey, Venture, aren't we getting closer to our secondary fall severe weather season?

Memories of standing under the east deck at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium during some evening monsoons hitting amid a few early-season games in Norman the last couple of years reminded me that time is approaching..

Yup. Usually starts to ramp up mid-September through early November. I would be okay with an early start if it means some rain. LOL

[SoonerDave]

Yup. Usually starts to ramp up mid-September through early November. I would be okay with an early start if it means some rain. LOL

No kidding! I was hearing some early rumblings of a pattern change toward more rain - perhaps even significant - in about ten days or so...you seeing anything like that?

[bandnerd]

I don't know what's happening, but I do know that the mornings are so lovely right now. Very unexpected for August. I know band directors and students around here are probably literally sighing with relief.

[venture]

So rain chances definitely going up for the rest of the week. Few outside chances for severe storms next 3 days...

TODAY...

...NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE REGION ESEWD ACROSS SWRN OK/N TX...
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THIS AREA...AS DIURNAL
HEATING RESULTS IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION ATOP A DEEP MIXED LAYER.
WHILE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE RED RIVER ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS -- COMBINED WITH THE DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER ENHANCING
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AND STEEP LAPSE RATES -- SUGGESTS
LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A RELATIVELY HOT/DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/SOUTH OF A
REMNANT/SLOW-NORTHWARD SHIFTING FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS WHERE STORMS FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTH TX/FAR SOUTHERN OK AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PARTS OF THE
ARKLATEX.

THURSDAY...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/MID-SOUTH...
ALTHOUGH WELL-REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT OVER THE
MIDWEST...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. A HOT/DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

[venture]

Light to moderate liquid type stuff that falls from the sky every now and then, is increasing in coverage a bit. Right now looks like best areas are going to be along and north Highway 51. More isolated/narrower band of this substance is going to be roughly from Highway 9 and to the north.

It's a start.

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
605 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 605 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 65 MPH
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF
ALTUS OKLAHOMA TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DURANT OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/STRENGTH ACROSS WW AREA THROUGH MID-LATE EVE AS REGION IS
GLANCED BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH KS/MO SHORTWAVE IMPULSE.
FORWARD-PROPAGATING DEVELOPMENT/OCCASIONAL BOWING STRUCTURES MAY BE
FOSTERED IN SW OK BY ELY LOW LVL FLOW INVOF SWD-MOVING W-E BOUNDARY.
MORE WDLY SCTD ACTIVITY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND MAY
OCCUR FARTHER SE...INVOF WEAK NWD-MOVING W-E FRONT IN N TX AND S
CNTRL OK...WHERE SOMEWHAT GREATER MOISTURE RESIDES WITHIN INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.

[OKCisOK4me]

Well isn't that nice for them. Here's to no lightning strikes in dry distant fields!

[Roadhawg]

I'm starting to think OKC has some kind of force field that pushed rain around it.

[venture]

I'm starting to think OKC has some kind of force field that pushed rain around it.

At least the north side of OKC got rain yesterday. Norman...I'm not sure what is going on. It is like the "Norman bubble" that normally deflects severe weather is in full force. LOL