Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

[venture]

NWS Norman has added 2 more tornadoes from the May 24th surveys - bringing the total to 11 that day in the NWS Norman area.

Detail: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20110524

Also added the information to the Storm Scope blog: http://www.storm-scope.com/blog/?p=108

[venture]

Watch will be issued once storms get cranking tonight. HRRR models do indicate the line could approve I-35 later this evening before falling apart. Extremely strong/damaging winds and large hail are main threats.

Storm Scope Forum Link: http://www.storm-scope.com/forum/vie...?f=11&t=23#p62

Storm Scope Blog Post: http://www.storm-scope.com/blog/?p=110



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS/ N-CNTRL INTO SWRN OK / PARTS OF THE TX
LOW ROLLING PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 092027Z - 092230Z

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A
LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS. A WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY ONCE STORM INITIATION IS
IMMINENT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DUAL SURFACE LOWS NEAR 40 MI WSW SLN AND
50 MI SE BGD ON A FRONT WITH A PREFRONTAL WINDSHIFT/CONFLUENCE ZONE
ARCING E AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE LOW ALONG THE CAPROCK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE NEB/KS/CO/OK PANHANDLE REGION...WITH THE TRAILING INFLUENCE
OF THIS DISTURBANCE PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS
THIS EVENING AS IT CONTINUES ENEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. PW/S ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
BOUNDARIES ARE HOLDING NEAR 1 INCH...WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING TEMPS AROUND 100 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN VERY LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WITHIN A DEEP
WELL-MIXED PBL...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE-H5 LAPSE RATES
AROUND 9 DEG C/KM. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR /40 KTS/ HAS OVERSPREAD THE
NRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER SHEAR FARTHER S
ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KTS. GIVEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE WIND PROFILE WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION
WITH SUPERCELL POTENTIAL--ALBEIT INCREASINGLY GREATER WITH FURTHER
NWD EXTENT. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A LARGE HAIL
THREAT /PERHAPS VERY LARGE NEAR AND N OF THE OK-KS BORDER/ AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

..SMITH.. 06/09/2011

[venture]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0454 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

WS 0454
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 10%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 50%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 80%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 26025
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF EMPORIA KANSAS TO 15 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
CHILDRESS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 450...WW 451...WW
452...WW 453...

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO ALONG FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR SLN SWWD INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE WEST OF CDS. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP
LOW/MID LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN THE GENERATION OF SEVERE MULTICELL
STORMS...AND SOME SUPERCELLS IN KS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.

[venture]

Bulletin - eas activation requested
tornado warning
national weather service norman ok
822 pm cdt thu jun 9 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Western custer county in western oklahoma...
Eastern roger mills county in western oklahoma...

* until 845 pm cdt

* at 822 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near hammon...moving
east at 30 mph.

* locations in the warning include butler...foss reservoir...hammon
and stafford.

[Thunder]

Now that is shocking. :-O

[Thunder]

http://livewire.koco.com/Event/Live_...Weather_June_9

Come celebrate with us! We're watching and waiting for the storms to arrive, that is if they hold on. :-)

[Thunder]

No luck for the most of us as those storm continued to die down. Northern metro get itsy bitsy rain, but not much.

[Bunty]

Meanwhile, here is a special weather statement for counties straight north of Oklahoma City:

Message summary: ...significant weather advisory...
This significant weather advisory is for garfield...grant...kay...
Kingfisher...logan...noble and payne counties. Strong and gusty winds will emerge from an area of collapsing showers moving east across north central oklahoma. Frequent wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range may be expected...along with occasional gusts to 60 mph or somewhat higher. The strongest gusts are most likely to be felt from lahoma over to enid and and perry. In addition to strong wind gusts...the air will dry out very quickly and the temperature will rise. Temperatures well into the 90s will be possible until the wind subsides. Hazards include...
Occasional wind gusts to 60 mph...

[Jesseda]

so on may 24th, how many tornados where in or around moore... I saw for myself and there is video of it on youtube to back me up about powerflashes on i-35 infront of warren theater

[venture]

so on may 24th, how many tornados where in or around moore... I saw for myself and there is video of it on youtube to back me up about powerflashes on i-35 infront of warren theater

None came into the city limits, the closest would have been the one on the far SW side of OKC...the Chickasha EF-4.

[adaniel]

Meanwhile, here is a special weather statement for counties straight north of Oklahoma City:

Message summary: ...significant weather advisory...
This significant weather advisory is for garfield...grant...kay...
Kingfisher...logan...noble and payne counties. Strong and gusty winds will emerge from an area of collapsing showers moving east across north central oklahoma. Frequent wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range may be expected...along with occasional gusts to 60 mph or somewhat higher. The strongest gusts are most likely to be felt from lahoma over to enid and and perry. In addition to strong wind gusts...the air will dry out very quickly and the temperature will rise. Temperatures well into the 90s will be possible until the wind subsides. Hazards include...Occasional wind gusts to 60 mph...

Didn't the Wichita area have some sort of freakish heat burst because of these storms?

[Thunder]

I went to bed around 5am or maybe 6am. Just after 8am, mom woke me up for breakfast and she said it rained last night. I said it didn't, then when I looked out, it was wet. So...must be mysterious rainfall went on.

[kevinpate]

I went to bed around 5am or maybe 6am. Just after 8am, mom woke me up for breakfast and she said it rained last night. I said it didn't, then when I looked out, it was wet. So...must be mysterious rainfall went on.

Or maybe she ran a sprinkler and was just messing with you. When my mom was younger, she wasn't above a bit of fun at times.

[Thunder]

Or maybe she ran a sprinkler and was just messing with you. When my mom was younger, she wasn't above a bit of fun at times.

She wouldn't waste water on the street and all the driveways.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...WRN/NRN OK...SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102031Z - 102300Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO
STORM COVERAGE...NONETHELESS...AN ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS ANTICIPATED WITH A WW POSSIBLE.

MIDLEVEL CONVECTION/CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER WRN TX/OK AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER
NM. THIS FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS WEAKENED THE CINH AND
RESULTED IN A MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG IN SERN KS/NERN OK WITH VALUES
DECREASING SWWD. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
APPROACHING 40 KTS OVER THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AS THE IMPULSE APPROACHES. GIVEN THIS
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL.

..JIRAK.. 06/10/2011


ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

[Thunder]

V, I brushed it off for yesterday then was surprised that storms actually happened and even gave us tornado thrill. Today, I'll be waiting to see what surprises we will have.

[Thunder]

It was depressing when those amazing storm clusters only went through the northern half of the metro during the day. Now I see even better storm clusters on the right path. HALLELUJAH!!!

Guys, KOCO has an Android App, you can download and install for free. There is a tab, you click on Weather and there are several radar options! Later on, they will update the app to include streaming videos and the LW. For now, use the normal browser of your choice to get on the LW.

Venture, you need to create an app for your site. :-)

[venture]

Thoughts for today on the the http://www.storm-scope.com blog at: http://www.storm-scope.com/blog/?p=121

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111928Z - 112130Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SURFACE BASED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WW IS
POSSIBLE.

MIDLEVEL CONVECTION IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY OVER
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. MEANWHILE...BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS
ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE RED RIVER AND IN THE TX
PANHANDLE INVOF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT RETREATS
NWD. WITH CINH CONTINUING TO ERODE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MLCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG/.
MESOANALYSIS AND AREA PROFILERS SUGGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 30 KTS...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND ATTENDANT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..JIRAK.. 06/11/2011

http://www.storm-scope.com/forum/vie....php?f=11&t=27

[Thunder]

Venture, just curious, are the term "damaging winds" a tame way to say "tornado" ???

[venture]

Venture, just curious, are the term "damaging winds" a tame way to say "tornado" ???

There is a minor tornado risk today, but no...damaging winds means straight line/downburst winds.

A watch is up now for parts of western OK. Details are posted on Storm Scope.

[Thunder]

Ah, okay. I guess a nappy will help speed along the process.

[CaptDave]

We need rain. Maybe some thunder and lightning. A touch of hail. Sound of a tornado siren wouldn't be a bad idea...make it interesting and thrilling. Its boring around here. :-(

Maybe you wouldnt be so bored if you had searched for a three year old boy a few days ago. If you want a thrill, do something that can only result in damage to yourself.

[SoonerQueen]

Hoping we get some rain later today.

[venture]

MCS moving through North Central OK currently. Current trends are indicating increasing chances that it will move through the Metro area, mainly along and north of I-40 (but could build south a bit more). Widespread destructive winds over 75 mph are possible. Radar is indicating some areas of wind 80 mph or higher.

Gust front is currently move East and ESE from around Braman to Tonkawa to Billings to Perry to Marshall to Dover to Greenfield to Weatherford.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
PAYNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
KAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
NOBLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 145 AM CDT

* AT 1224 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF
BLACKWELL TO 8 MILES EAST OF GARBER TO 6 MILES WEST OF MARSHALL...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE PONCA CITY...PERRY...BLACKWELL...
AND STILLWATER.