Severe Weather Outlook - May 12 & 13th

[westsidesooner]

The chance of a tornado in the Metro tonight is very small, that said don't be surprised if you see a tornado warning somewhere in the state tonight. However.......It could get pretty bad later with the possibility of Very large hail and Very strong winds of 70mph+. Storms are starting to fire in southern Kansas and should build into northern Oklahoma this evening. I'd play close attention when the storms get close tonight.

If theres any variation of the game that includes the terms squall line, straight-line winds or giant hail...have the shot glassses ready!!! I'd expect they will issue a Tornado watch just to be safe. That and the storms will/could be severe enough that they will cause tornado type damage. Timing....I'd guess between 8pm and 2am.

Im just starting to clean up the debris from last nights storm...its so hot and humid out there & I'm melting. lol I might get the game started early.

A toast......

[OKCisOK4me]

I'll get myself prepared now for the LOST season finale to not be aired in HD...

[westsidesooner]

I'll get myself prepared now for the LOST season finale to not be aired in HD...

That wouldnt surprise me. Severe weather kills primetime.

I was wrong about the watch......its a severe t-storm watch not a tornado watch



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 296
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
515 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 515 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 293...WW 294...WW 295...

DISCUSSION...RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY 23Z ALONG
THE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO N/NW OK. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG/ AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL
SUPPORT STORM FORMATION/INTENSIFICATION...AND GRADUAL EVOLUTION INTO
A LINE OF STORMS ON THE FRONT. THE INITIAL THREAT WILL BE VERY
LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS GIVEN 8.5-9 C/KM MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KT...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BECOMING COMMON THREATS LATER THIS EVENING AS
STORM COVERAGE INCREASES.

[Bunty]

Short term model guidance has initiation along the front around 7PM tonight now (or a bit before) developing and moving through the Metro through 10PM. Instabilities are forecast to be completely insane by later today, they are already indicated to be very unstable by SPC mesoanalysis. I wouldn't expect a lot of tornadoes at all today, wind patterns aren't there. However, monster hail is looking pretty likely and that may prove to be a lot worse in some cases.

Right you are. The weather watch just issued was a severe weather one, rather than for tornadoes. I better remember to put my car in the garage.

[Bunty]

Yeah Heat Bursts are more common into the summer, but are still pretty rare. To keep it pretty simplistic...updraft of the storm completely dies and the storm collapses. So everything that was pushed up into the storm, instead of being let out gradually through normal outflow, just comes rushing out all at once. As the air moves faster it heats up so you have this sudden gush of wind crashing down that is also a good 15-30 degrees warmer than the surrounding air temp.

There is a lot more that goes into it, otherwise every decaying storm would do the same thing, but that is the basic overview.

It's interesting that Stillwater was not too far away to feel the effects of the heat burst. By scrolling down to the first graph you can see how it blew in between 5 and 6 am here: Weather Station History : Weather Underground

[jstanthrnme]

A refresher of the Gary England Drinking Game:

http://www.okctalk.com/okc-undergrou...king-game.html

[venture]

Sorry, went to see Star Trek...so back to work now.

Confirmed tornado south of Deer Creek, west of Tonkawa, and north of Billings.

[venture]

West Central Blaine county report of a land spout by KOCO chaser just came across the wire.

[jstanthrnme]

Y'all forget about your primetime network programs for the night, looks like its gonna be wall-to-wall w/ all of them.

[venture]

Metro impacting...gotta go with that. Thank god for Tivo. : )

Storm with the land spout earlier near Greenfield has a very strong rotation with it, this will likely moving into Canadian County in the next hour.

NWS Norman did an extended warning down the line more to the SW as a preemptive measure for rapidly developing storms.

[jstanthrnme]

Looks like that one might skirt the west side of OKC...Morgan said that one had reports of baseball sized hail.

[venture]

Circulation is down on the west side storm. Hail is over 3" now on radar estimates.

EDIT: Appears it is cycling. Inflow notch is developing again on it...and it has split off from the line. Tail end charlie go.

[jstanthrnme]

got any good chaser feeds your keeping up with Venture?

looks to me that the Blaine/Canadian storm is breaking off and going more SSE than the main line which is continuing SE..

[Karried]

Sorry, went to see Star Trek...so back to work now

WHAT???? We need you.... next time, give us advance warning. lol
westsidesooner has been keeping up informed while you were gone ....

Honestly though, I'm seriously getting nervous right now.

[venture]

Interesting break in the line now. Will need to watch to see if rotation improves in either storms.

[Thunder]

I'm just now waking up. I'm going bowling on Sunnylane with friends. Gotta get ready now.

[Thunder]

Nice hooks. Interesting, indeed, Mr. V!

[Karried]

ha! I'm liking how there is a nice space/break that might just miss all of us here in Edmond and the Metro! Yay!

[jstanthrnme]

well.. looks to me like OKC proper's excitement for the day was really early this morning.

[venture]

Looks like right now the western and NE Metro will be the only parts impacted. There are some indications the line may try to start filling back in again soon. Also additional moisture is moving in the from SW to maybe get the dryline in play here. However it looks like the cap will hold in that area right now. We'll have to wait and see though.

[jstanthrnme]

Thunder, you should open a bowling center, and call it Tornado Alley.

[Thunder]

Thunder, you should open a bowling center, and call it Tornado Alley.

First person I'd hire will be Karrie.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
841 pm cdt wed may 13 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northern lincoln county in central oklahoma...
Logan county in central oklahoma...
Eastern oklahoma county in central oklahoma...
Payne county in central oklahoma...

* until 945 pm cdt

* at 841 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
severe thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles north of
ripley to 3 miles southeast of cedar valley...moving southeast
at 20 mph. The largest hail will fall along the western
portion of the line.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of golf balls...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include edmond...guthrie...northeastern
oklahoma city and stillwater.

[jstanthrnme]

is it just my sense of time, or has the line of storms slowed down?

[Karried]

Maybe, it's just you partaking in the Gary England drinking game. j/k ...

I've long given up on trying to understand the OK weather ...