Severe Weather Risk - 3/23/2009 (Monday)

[venture]

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 56
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FORT SILL OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 54...WW 55...

DISCUSSION...TCU/CBS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG DRYLINE FROM THE KS/OK BORDER TO JUST EAST OF CDS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR ALSO WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.

[Thunder]

And I'm off to work! Sad to miss all the excitement!

[venture]

Warnings for Oklahoma, Oklahoma : Weather Underground

There's your tornader watch for ya Venture!

TY. : ) Details up now.

Activity continues along the dryline. Strongest storms now are near Blackwell in Kay County; near Salt Fork in Garfield County; and the best looking east of Geary in NW Canadian County.

[venture]

Storm moving west of Okarche in the area where Candian, Blaine, and Kingfisher counties all touch is showing increased rotation with it. It is now severe warned.

Update: 5:49PM...Storm structure is a little less organized, which is going to happen in high shear environments. Hail size estimate up to 1.50" and most of that is out in open country. Hail core is bobbling around a bit and may stay south of Kingfisher.

Update 5:54PM...Some reorganization. Rotating is back up. This is 5.39nm NW of Okarche and 8.90nm SW of Kingfisher. There is a cell due south of it that it is merging with it appears, so that will impact it some and may delay any fast spin ups.

Update 6:14PM...Storm merge is complete, and it has organized into an arch shape storm. Rotation is increasing with the storm. Marginal severe hail was reported in Kingfisher proper per Norman WFO over HAM radio.

Update 6:19PM...Continued evolution of the storm. Two hook echoes on the storm right now. One is 4 miles ENE of Kingfisher, the other is 7.5 miles east of Kingfisher. Rotation is pretty broad, but it is there. Crescent looks to be int he main path right now.

Update 6:23PM...Next storms to watch will be E Kiowa County south of Mountain View and NE of Copperton, hail up to marginal limits right now with it. Next is in Jackson County south of Altus...small hail, heavy rain and some wind (not like we all don't have that already LOL). Further north the Kingfisher County/Logan County storm is elongated right now - welcome to shear - but is maintaining intensity. Broad rotation is now north of State Route 33.

Update 6:36PM...Kingfisher/Logan Storm is attempting to get some better structure, but really broad rotation. Some indications from the latest discussion out of Norman is that conditions may be turning more unfavorable for storm development as the cap restrengthens before the cold front gets here. Things do appear to be pretty static, so if this bumps the storms back down or if it just continues to slow development down, we'll wait and see.

[venture]

Edits - Updating to include links for live video online for those chasing it.

http://www.spotternetwork.org/google.php

http://tornadovideos.net/full-screen-chaser-video.php

Tornado Warning for Logan County

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 715 PM CDT
* AT 640 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES WEST OF CRESCENT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CRESCENT AND MULHALL.

Update 645PM: Another warning for Jackson County, Svr Tstm....also sounds like Tillman Co will get warned as well.

Update 6:48PM: Storm near Crescent seems to be holding its own. KWTV did show a brief funnel cloud with this storm.

Update 652PM: Kiowa, Tillman, Comanche storms are now warned...more of a glob of them.

Update 658PM: Logan Co Storm rotation has tightened up. 3.82mi ENE of Crescent, 7.77mi SW of Mulhall.

Update 711PM: Logan/Payne County storm is still rotating but spotters are reporting outflow dominant right now, which will explain why any wall cloud formations were undercut fast. Farther south, pretty large hail heading for Altus.

[Tex]

Anyone own a fence company? My 3 month old fence has a snapped wooden post. The homebuilder does not warranty the fence as damage is inevitable with the hardcore winds here. Although the fence company put in a faulty post because it has knots on the corners, therefore the stress from the wind created a crack in the weak knot.

Didn't mean to go off topic, but this is a result of the weather we are experiencing right now.

[venture]

Tex, May want to place your post into a different relevant thread.

Stillwater bound storm is hanging tough. Decent hail core with it, tornado threat appears to be very slim at this time.

[venture]

Hook echo on Comanche Co storm, power flashes in Lawton.

Update 900PM: Severe storm with strong winds and extremely large hail continues moving east away from Lawton towards Rush Springs. Hail up to 2.35" with this storm.

[jstanthrnme]

those are going pretty much east though. they'll miss the metro to the south, right?

[venture]

The north portion may hit the southern Metro around Noble, Slaughterville, and Purcell. There are two other storms behind this one a little bit north.

[jstanthrnme]

Deja Vu:
They're talking some snow/ice in Oklahoma toward the weekend.
Didn't we go through this the last time there was a severe weather thread on a Monday.

[Karried]

So... can I go watch a movie now and stop worrying about the kids at the Ford Center?

[venture]

Three main areas of storms right now.

1) Strong storm moving into souther McClain will impact Wayne, Maysville, and maybe Purcell. Hail to peas and dimes, lotta water though.

2) Large complex of strong to severe storms in Caddo County move ENE will be into Oklahoma and Cleveland Counties in an hour or so. First main area with potentially severe hail over an inch is just east of Gracemont. The second major area is between Broxton to Stecker. Hail is larger here estimated over 2". There is some rotation in this second area, but mainly just expect strong damaging winds and the large hail with the mesocyclone.

3) Last area is a line kinda from Eakly to Cordell to Rocky to Sentinel to Retrop to Willow. Mostly in Wa****a County. Most significant area will be by Rocky with some marginal severe hail if any. Other pockets along the line may have heavy rain and pea sized hail.

UPDATE 10:18PM - #2 has now been severe warned in Caddo and Grady counties.

UPDATE 10:34PM - Activity is on an increase right now, likely due to the approaching system. Area #3 is now severe warned out west. Additional showers are developing in NC Oklahoma again.

[Thunder]

I'm home. Gosh, I'm so tired. lol No rain until the last hour, we got a lil lite rain. That was it. Now, I'm gonna go see whats up. lol

[Thunder]

TORNADOES IS COMING!!!

Huge supercells is getting stronger and coming our way!

[venture]

Relax bud. Here is the run down.

Storm #1, well complex will be the Canadian/Grady storm. Strong portion is just east of Chickasha now. Well defined gust front on this, so this is OUTFLOW dominant. No chance for a tornado right now. There is EXTREMELY strong winds and hail up to 1.92". This portion will likely track over Norman, Blanchard, and Noble. Another smaller hail core is just west of Newcastle right now with hail around 0.85".

Storm #2, is in Caddo County has reoriented and broke off from the line that was #3 in my previous post. Hail over 1.5" to the NW of Binger and SW of Hinton. Another core is just east of Alfalfa.

Storm #3, is in Wa****a County east of Cordell. Hail around 1.28".

UPDATE 11:04PM - Cleveland and McClain Counties are now warned for Storm #1. Golf balls and 65 mph winds.

[Thunder]

These storms have impressive hooks.

[venture]

Yeah, but they are all outflow dominant. You can make out the outflow boundaries on them when you have the radar sensitivity turned way up.

So with the one that just came through Norman. Roughly nickel to quarter sized hail provided a good downpour for about 5 minutes...couple piles a few inches deep on the ground. Wind was tolerable.

[rod4soonrs]

haven't had any tornadoes today, don't think we will see any, high winds,heavy rain, and hail will be the worst of it.

[OKCisOK4me]

These storms have impressive hooks.

I like to call it "getting heavy". These storms get these southern definitions on them and then tend to go from traveling NE to sagging more straight East due to the curvature of the earth. LOL, they're slippin down toward the equator! The storm out near El Reno is growing bigger by the minute and also is turning more due east. And now there's more storm development behind it--the Hinton storm, the Weatherford storm, the Clinton storm and the Elk City storm. It will be interesting to see what happens with those and which direction they end up going. It's been raining where I live for quite some time and I don't see it ending anytime soon...

[Nermel]

TVS (tornado vortex signature) keeps poping off and on on some of these storms.

[Thunder]

Isn't it true that when a storm shift eastward, the chance of producing a tornado goes up?

[OKCisOK4me]

Isn't it true that when a storm shift eastward, the chance of producing a tornado goes up?

Yes, but of course, the chances are far greater during the day. Venture talking of outflow boundaries is definitely a good thing. 'Night of the Twisters' was a good book and something I do not want to go through in real life.

[venture]

Typically a storm that starts "turning right" is because the storm is rotating and there is the risk of a higher tornado chance.

Next severe storm will come into OKC/Moore area in the next half hour. Hail isn't too big with it, wind should be up around 50-60mph. Storms continue to develop along I-40 and move ENE.

Short term model guidance has a decent hold on things right now, but had the storms a bit further north. It does however redevelop storms in Western Oklahoma has the Cold Front plows through later tonight, so areas where the storms have already passed over this evening, will likely get a second shot around 3-5AM.

[Thunder]

I understand about the outflow. A storm need more inflow to produce a tornado. So far, the outflow is greater than the inflow.

I'm curious, have there ever been an outflow tornado? Is that like when a tornado rotate the opposite direction?