May 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[BG918]

This is looking like another year without much of a severe weather season. I’m not seeing anything on longer range models to indicate a traditional stormy pattern. Maybe that will change?

I know that as we move into late may and June, we get more northwesterly patterns with MCS’s and such. Those can bring some nice rains. We’re going to need it as the lakes are still really low.

For as bad as the drought has been I was surprised to see most lakes in decent shape heading into the wettest period of the year. The OKC-area lakes are low but are within reach of getting closer to normal. Bartlesville has been water rationing for months due to low levels at Copan. Skiatook near Tulsa is also the lowest it's been in several years due to its limited watershed in drought-plagued Osage County

[Pete]

Hefner was really, really low before we got that 3-4 inches last week.

You can still see lots of brown dirt around the edges.

[floyd the barber]

This is looking like another year without much of a severe weather season. I’m not seeing anything on longer range models to indicate a traditional stormy pattern. Maybe that will change?

I know that as we move into late may and June, we get more northwesterly patterns with MCS’s and such. Those can bring some nice rains. We’re going to need it as the lakes are still really low.

I don't know. Thursday looks bad.

[kukblue1]

I don't know. Thursday looks bad.

After Thursday though Severe Weather doesn't seem likely for a while in the Southern Plains. The "Death Ridge" forms and things shut down.

[kukblue1]

HRRR 48 Hours out. WOW. However it's still 48 hours out and only one run so MEH it will change but Thursday is a day to watch.

[floyd the barber]

HRRR 48 Hours out. WOW. However it's still 48 hours out and only one run so MEH it will change but Thursday is a day to watch.

Where can I see it?

[BG918]

After Thursday though Severe Weather doesn't seem likely for a while in the Southern Plains. The "Death Ridge" forms and things shut down.

The models I looked at today still show an unsettled pattern continuing into the following week

[kukblue1]

The models I looked at today still show an unsettled pattern continuing into the following week

Yes rain all weekend first part of next week but severe weather no.

[Bunty]

For as bad as the drought has been I was surprised to see most lakes in decent shape heading into the wettest period of the year. The OKC-area lakes are low but are within reach of getting closer to normal. Bartlesville has been water rationing for months due to low levels at Copan. Skiatook near Tulsa is also the lowest it's been in several years due to its limited watershed in drought-plagued Osage County

Bartlesville needs to pipe in water from Kaw Lake.

[kukblue1]

Really interested to see what the SPC is going to go with on their 2-day Outlook. Did a little more digging tonight and it's a really good setup for some big thunderstorms for West Central Oklahoma on Thursday. I'm sure it'll just be enhanced but wouldn't shock me to see a moderate risk come later down the road.

[kukblue1]

Ok so SPC is holding back a bit for now. Here's what they think:

A more substantial -- through also likely more isolated -- severe
risk may evolve across parts of western Oklahoma, near a potential
dryline bulge. While capping should hinder development until late
afternoon, developing storms would be evolving within an airmass
featuring a moist boundary layer beneath steep lapse rates aloft,
and with low-level southeasterly flow veering and increasing to
southwesterly at mid levels. As a result, a couple of supercell
storms are anticipated, which would be capable of producing very
large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and potentially a couple of
tornadoes. This risk would spread northeastward through the evening
-- across Oklahoma and into southern Kansas. While questions
regarding convective coverage argue against upgrading tornado or
hail probabilities at this time, such upgrades could be necessary in
future outlooks if this scenario becomes more certain, and
particularly if it appears that storm coverage may be slightly
greater than currently anticipated.

[C_M_25]

Models are backing off a touch on storm intensity although they still have a cluster popping up in central ok. There’s not much in the way of convergence to initiate storms. If that low can track a little further south or if it speeds up a hair, it could be a rough day. It could also be a nothing burger too.

[Ohwiseone]

There are a lot of people putting all of their eggs in the NAM/HRRR basket for tomorrow.
The other models output is lacking… to be perfectly transparent.

[kukblue1]

Yep the models are not agreeing that being said though ingredients are there for some big storms.

[Anonymous.]

Another factor for tomorrow is a potential for decaying cluster of morning time storms coming out of the panhandle area. Longevity, cloudcover, and outflow boundaries interacting with the dryline will all need to be accounted for.

One thing is for certain. Massive chaser convergence.

[Anonymous.]

SPC upgraded C, NC, and NW OK to Enhanced Risk. Including 10% tornado probabilities. Hatched for significant potential on both tornado and hail. All of OKC is included now and that extends past Norman.

[kukblue1]

Enhanced risk now from SPC with at 10% hatched tornado area from OKC up to SW Kansas.

[BG918]

Pretty wild to see that cut off low moving northwest across Arkansas. Almost looks like a decaying tropical system with a few outer bands moving across Oklahoma

[SoonerDave]

So the whole setup for tomorrow afternoon is predicated on how far north that low moves up, correct?

[C_M_25]

Tomorrow is feeling a whole lot more like “bust” territory than anything big. The NAM is struggling to fire storms at all. The atmosphere is primed but there is no convergence to initiate storms. The HRRR is firing a couple of storms still but they’re small little cluster now. The HRRR is also showing more of a cap. Than previous model iterations. The NAM is hinting at cloudy conditions most of the day but no cap. I suspect that there will be a cap tomorrow and not enough heating to fire storms. Also, not enough convergence overall.

[kukblue1]

Tomorrow is feeling a whole lot more like “bust” territory than anything big. The NAM is struggling to fire storms at all. The atmosphere is primed but there is no convergence to initiate storms. The HRRR is firing a couple of storms still but they’re small little cluster now. The HRRR is also showing more of a cap. Than previous model iterations. The NAM is hinting at cloudy conditions most of the day but no cap. I suspect that there will be a cap tomorrow and not enough heating to fire storms. Also, not enough convergence overall.

Will there be enough forcing and dry line burgle to overcome some of that though? I'm thinking the low does maybe need to track a little further south..

[jn1780]

Edmond Public Schools has already moved Kindergarten parent night so looks like bust it is!

[chssooner]

Pouring in eastern Oklahoma where I'm at for work. So obviously the rain dies before it reaches the metro.

[kukblue1]

HRRR still liking the I-35 area with storms blowing up along i-35. Let's see what the Namnst does cause it hasn't been showing much.

[C_M_25]

One thing that really worries me about tomorrow is how the HRRR is being so specific to only one or two isolated super cells. I can’t understand why that one specific little area is conducive to storm initiation, but that trend has been consistent. However, if those storms break the cap, that atmosphere is going to be seriously charged and isolated which is a bad combination for tornadoes. Some of our worst tornadoes have been when these supercells get isolated like this.

If the HRRR holds out tomorrow and the skies clear by lunch, I would not at all be surprised if the tornado risk is elevated. Could it be significant enough to see a PDS warning tomorrow?