April 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[bison34]

Lol, I leave OKC, and they may end up with nothing, only to head to Muskogee, where they will likely get hammered.

[SoonerDave]

The line of storms in SW OK just doesn't seem to be getting organized. I have to wonder at this point if the LLJ will kick any of these up later this evening, otherwise it would seem the window for the bigger hailers is starting to close just a bit.

[SEMIweather]

It would take a change in the current storm evolution for OKC proper to get anything, IMO. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but certainly think the severe weather threat in OKC proper has decreased relative to an hour ago.

[Bunty]

Tornado sirens sounded in Stillwater, apparently for the tornado warning northwest of there.

[PoliSciGuy]

Seeing lots of stormchasers and others claim this is a bust, which as a homeowner in the area I'm not gonna complain about. Good rains, no monster hail, no major tornado threat...good outcome

[bison34]

Seeing lots of stormchasers and others claim this is a bust, which as a homeowner in the area I'm not gonna complain about. Good rains, no monster hail, no major tornado threat...good outcome

Except for when OKC gets no rain.

[Anonymous.]

HRRR suggesting one last firing of some cells to the SW. The atmosphere is really cluttered across C OK right now and the pockets of rain cooled air are hanging around.

Any new cells will likely be associated to the cold front blasting in, so more elevated type of cells.

[Elrenogolf]

Seeing lots of stormchasers and others claim this is a bust, which as a homeowner in the area I'm not gonna complain about. Good rains, no monster hail, no major tornado threat...good outcome

Agreed, happy if it turns out to be a bust. Hopefully the people in Ohio get a bust tomorrow as well.

[Libbymin]

Getting some pretty good rain in central OKC.

[kukblue1]

Too soon to hype Saturday April 6? It's already started by the way. JS

[The]

Too soon to hype Saturday April 6? It's already started by the way. JS

Yes.

[Bunty]

Tornado sirens sounded in Stillwater, apparently for the tornado warning northwest of there.

The Book of Mormon musical got delayed by 35 minutes at McKnight Center, OSU. Stillwater area got around an inch or a little better of rain.

[SoonerDave]

So while I realize we did have apparently four confirmed tornadoes, I don't think this event unfolded anywhere near to the degree that was projected. To what might we assign this in a "forensic analysis?" Not enough forcing? Not enough heat? Did the Texas storms cut off some of the presumed inflow?

My daughter works in Norman but lives in Moore, and I felt more than a little silly after the fact cautioning her about the NWS forecasting possible big hailstorms in central OK just about the time she would head home, especially ehen absolutely nothing happened.

[Anonymous.]

With such a low number of severe hail reports, I would say that was a busted forecast for sure. I think the early precipitation + lack of solar heating is likely a big factor.

[jn1780]

The day before forecast was closer to the actual than the morning of forecast. I guess its one of those cases where forecasters thought the heat would arrive 'just in time'. Seems to be happening a lot more in recent years.

[kukblue1]

Too soon to hype Saturday April 6? It's already started by the way. JS

Okay maybe not too soon since the storm prediction center already has a slight risk for all of the area for Saturday. Honestly Saturday is looking really good the big if once again though is moisture. Dew points might struggle to get into the upper 50s

[baralheia]

Too soon to hype Saturday April 6? It's already started by the way. JS

Looking over the last several runs of GFS and GEM, Tuesday April 9 is looking potentially interesting as well, but SPC says there's still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and placement of boundaries and the magnitude of instability. Worth keeping an eye on to see how things evolve as we get closer though.

[okatty]

Very good rain NW OKC - my regular gauge shows around 1.3 and my weather station shows 1.1.

[C_M_25]

Will need to watch how Saturday develops closely throughout the week. Looks like a similar set up. Strong upper level southwesterly jet with a low coming in and dry line set up. The timing and position of that low will be what we need to watch along with moisture levels. GFS showing dew points around 60, but that moisture is piped in from the gulf. I would not be surprised if the models get more bullish on moisture later in the week.

[NikonNurse]

Okay maybe not too soon since the storm prediction center already has a slight risk for all of the area for Saturday. Honestly Saturday is looking really good the big if once again though is moisture. Dew points might struggle to get into the upper 50s

May be a problem if sun comes out... (more so than yesterday...probably what kept a lid on things?)

[NikonNurse]

Very good rain NW OKC - my regular gauge shows around 1.3 and my weather station shows 1.1.

Just enough rain to water my new tree but not enough to drown it...and not quite cold enough to kill it,.,,,,,(I hope)

[kukblue1]

Tuesday evening and Saturday is looking MEH. However the last event looked great so Saturday will probably end up being a huge outbreak at this point.

[SEMIweather]

I am interested in next Tuesday but wondering if it will ultimately be more of a heavy rain threat than a severe weather threat. Need something to take my mind off of how poorly my predictions on yesterday’s event ended up being, lol.

[C_M_25]

I am interested in next Tuesday but wondering if it will ultimately be more of a heavy rain threat than a severe weather threat. Need something to take my mind off of how poorly my predictions on yesterday’s event ended up being, lol.

Yeah yesterday was strange. I wonder if anybody has done a look back to see what did or what didn’t happen that caused the bust for the high end severe weather predictions for yesterday?

[kukblue1]

Yeah yesterday was strange. I wonder if anybody has done a look back to see what did or what didn’t happen that caused the bust for the high end severe weather predictions for yesterday?

Forcing came in later than expected, cap held longer than expected, Dry line never really set up North too south, Cloud cover lasted all day. When the forcing did come in the front was already through so storms were elevated. A lot went wrong.