August 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[Libbymin]

I’m ready for fall.

[SEMIweather]

Think there’s a reasonable chance our next sub-90 degree high doesn’t come until after Labor Day.

[BG918]

HRRR showing storms developing ahead of the front and moving south early morning Thursday

[LakeEffect]

Just as a heads up, this morning's SPC Outlook still has the entire metro in Marginal (1 on the 1 to 5 scale) Risk for severe storms after 4:00 pm today. Wind and hail threat, if anything develops...

[SEMIweather]

Thunderstorm chances increasing for both today and tomorrow, although today still looks like the best chance overall. Thinking coverage should peak around 6-10 p.m. this evening with a primary threat of damaging winds, secondary threat of large hail.

[Anonymous.]

SPC has upgraded severe risk for all of I-44 to Slight for this evening.

I have a flight to catch tonight, so you're welcome OKC.

[BG918]

Storms expected to begin firing between 5-6 pm roughly along I-44 and move slowly south and east

[SEMIweather]

Feel like the HRRR is too far south with development and initiation is more likely to occur along the wind shift from Clinton to Ponca City. We shall see! Either way, think that storms will form close enough to the Metro for a solid precipitation chances.

Also not sure why the NWS hasn’t added in storm chances tomorrow evening. Tulsa Metro is favored at this time but would not take much of a shift for OKC to be under the gun once again. If storms do happen tomorrow, would likely be very similar to today’s threat with damaging winds and isolated large hail possible.

[SEMIweather]

Chaotic storm evolution but for now, looks like the main area of convection is heading southwest of OKC.

[Bunty]

Chaotic storm evolution but for now, looks like the main area of convection is heading southwest of OKC.

Thunder from storms just to the northwest and south of Stillwater but have since joined together. NWS forecast says chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Also, storm develop to the east of Tulsa.

[bison34]

Missed rain by about 30 miles.

[Bunty]

I got .36". The Guthrie area got a lot more. For now, as of 11:15 pm, Tulsa and to the south of there is getting it with heavy storms, including some hail. 41st and Sheridan has stalled cars. KOTV-6.1 Tulsa is covering it non-stop and transferred the Late Show to 6.3. Their chief meteorologist, Travis Meyer thinks Tulsa won't make it to a 100 on Friday.

A new strong storm that popped up just to the south of Stillwater, merited a severe thunderstorm warning. It will miss Stillwater.

[SEMIweather]

Best storm chances look to be between 11 p.m. and 3 a.m. overnight tonight. Would say overall probabilities are lower than yesterday. Would also expect less of a severe weather threat given no daytime heating and best forcing to our north.

Yesterday’s storms packed a pretty hefty punch in areas that did get hit, most notably a 71 mph wind gust at the Minco Mesonet site.

Tomorrow will be one of the hottest days of the year. Sunday will be bad as well. Beyond that, the ridge fortunately looks to retreat a bit to the west, finally opening up the Metro to some relief from this week’s oppressive heat/humidity. Expecting highs mainly in the lower/mid 90’s next week and afternoon dewpoints mixing out to the lower/mid 60’s by the end of next week, as opposed to the 70+ degree readings that have been common for the past five days and counting.

[SEMIweather]

Severe thunderstorm watch out for the northern Metro as a cluster of storms has developed in NW OK. Models have not picked these up at all, so convective evolution is uncertain to say the least.

[BG918]

This map looks more like April or May and not August! Incredible rainfall across many areas the past couple weeks. The benefit of being right on the north edge of the high pressure resulting in NW flow.

Good thing because we dry out this next week but with “cooler” temps in the high 80’s/low 90’s

[Mr. Blue Sky]

The next week - two weeks looks as dry as it gets. Look for lower 90s for a stretch. Who wouldn’t take that for mid-August in OKC?

[BG918]

Next two weeks GFS rainfall forecast - dry pattern on the backside of the high pressure then the heat dome will move back over but should retreat enough to the south to bring NW flow similar to this past week closer to Labor Day.

[Anonymous.]

The heat blasting returns this weekend. Near 100F for OKC next few days.

[SEMIweather]

Seasonally strong cold front looks to come through around next Friday or Saturday.

[SoonerDave]

Seasonally strong cold front looks to come through around next Friday or Saturday.

No rain on OU's home opener, please.

[C_M_25]

Is it me or did it get really windy last night? I swear I thought I heard it but wasn’t sure. Woke up to stuff blown all over the place.

[BG918]

No rain on OU's home opener, please.

Decent chance of rain Friday night - better chances later in the weekend on Sunday-Monday

GFS rainfall through Monday

[bison34]

Decent chance of rain Friday night - better chances later in the weekend on Sunday-Monday

GFS rainfall through Monday

Missing a graphic?

[SoonerDave]

Decent chance of rain Friday night - better chances later in the weekend on Sunday-Monday

GFS rainfall through Monday

Friday night as in "7-10pm" or "late overnight into Saturday?"

I reiterate my appeal for no rain on OU's opener.

[BG918]

Friday night as in "7-10pm" or "late overnight into Saturday?"

I reiterate my appeal for no rain on OU's opener.

Hard to tell right now as there could be a couple waves that occur at different times. Should be able to know if it looks likely during the game by Wednesday. Either way it does not look like a wash out like the 2009 opener vs Idaho State.