March 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[SEMIweather]

I think with this event it‘s important to note that the instability axis is going to be very narrow; therefore, there probably won’t be any long-lived supercells. It’s well within the realm of possibility that the severe weather potential is maximized in a 50-100 mile radius just west of the Metro. Haven’t been following this one super closely but it’s something that has stuck out to me.

[kukblue1]

Couple of the computer models are spitting out just a few storms but big storms. Southwest Oklahoma might be coming into play now?

[Elrenogolf]

Couple of the computer models are spitting out just a few storms but big storms. Southwest Oklahoma might be coming into play now?

I’m going to be in El Reno from about 2pm to 5pm. Are there any hail concerns for my car during this time period?

[SoonerDave]

All I know is the wind is ridiculous out of the south and it's still *danged* chilly, with thick cloud cover, in the mid-50's here in SW OKC. If that keeps up, I have a hard time seeing how that contributes to big storms. Think it goes back to that narrow band of instability that's been discussed.

[BG918]

All I know is the wind is ridiculous out of the south and it's still *danged* chilly, with thick cloud cover, in the mid-50's here in SW OKC. If that keeps up, I have a hard time seeing how that contributes to big storms. Think it goes back to that narrow band of instability that's been discussed.

Yep typical early spring event - strong upper level dynamics but not enough heat and moisture

[kukblue1]

I’m going to be in El Reno from about 2pm to 5pm. Are there any hail concerns for my car during this time period?

Your probably good.

[kukblue1]

Yep typical early spring event - strong upper level dynamics but not enough heat and moisture

Moisture is probably good enough. In fact it's a little higher than expected. Won't take much Sun or heating to break the cap today. So a bit of sun is going to get it done. Nw Oklahoma as about 11:30 looks to be in the worse zone. SW and Metro is more conditional. IF a storm can form it's still going to be Potent at least for a little bit. Like SEMI weather said the zone isn't very big.

[kukblue1]

And as soon as I got done typing NWS came out with an Enhanced Risk for Western Northwestern Oklahoma

[Elrenogolf]

Your probably good.

Good deal, thanks!

[kukblue1]

https://x.com/ounwcm/status/1771959990871261215?s=20 Don't let the it's cold fool you today. Yes it's keeping this from being a big day but won't keep it from producing a couple of storms.

[PoliSciGuy]

Looks like a watch is coming

[floyd the barber]

Are we going to have our first David Payne spectacle of the year?

[PoliSciGuy]

Watch is out - Severe Thuderstorm, not Tornado

https://x.com/nwswichita/status/1771...916877206?s=46

[C_M_25]

Yeah, today went about like I thought it would. Strange how hyped people got over this event today. Just not enough moisture and heat. Obviously, we had some storms out west but they petered out quickly.

Looks like a quiet week or two. The next interesting looking even is around April 9th. Looks like the jet swings back to a strong southwesterly flow out in front of a boundary coming in. Obviously, it’s a ways out so the models will change between now and then. Something to watch, however.

[kukblue1]

Yeah, today went about like I thought it would. Strange how hyped people got over this event today. Just not enough moisture and heat. Obviously, we had some storms out west but they petered out quickly.

Looks like a quiet week or two. The next interesting looking even is around April 9th. Looks like the jet swings back to a strong southwesterly flow out in front of a boundary coming in. Obviously, it’s a ways out so the models will change between now and then. Something to watch, however.

The Fired and went up too quickly. They didn't give themselves enough time for the atmosphere too warm up and recover fully from the cloud cover. If they would have waited until after 5 it might of been a different story.

[Anonymous.]

Strong NW winds will continue to bring in cold air overnight as the low pressure passes by. Probably right at freezing for OKC in the morning.

We slowly warm up the rest of the week, looks like 80s by the weekend. Enjoy!

[kukblue1]

Eastern Oklahoma on Monday night April 1st is the next big chance of severe weather. Maybe something on Sunday.

[Anonymous.]

Quick rain/snow pocket is moving toward OKC metro this morning. Will be moving W to E.

[SEMIweather]

Nice hit of snow for ~ 15 minutes just NE of Downtown. It has since transitioned to rain. Thinking it will possibly transition back to snow as there seems to be a heavier pocket of precip around the I-40/I-44 interchange at the moment, moving ENE.

[C_M_25]

Monday is looking like a day to watch for the time being. It has good flow from the southwest. Good instability. Dewpoints possibly in the mid to upper 60’s. I would imagine timing of the system will be the big player. If it comes in too early, we’ll probably just rain showers. If it slows a bit, we could see some nice storms develop. Something to watch.

[BG918]

Monday is looking like a day to watch for the time being. It has good flow from the southwest. Good instability. Dewpoints possibly in the mid to upper 60’s. I would imagine timing of the system will be the big player. If it comes in too early, we’ll probably just rain showers. If it slows a bit, we could see some nice storms develop. Something to watch.

Position of the low Monday will be critical if we get storms, or even much rainfall, in Oklahoma. Looking out further, there is a more of classic spring storm showing up in the models around 4/8 that will likely be a severe weather maker somewhere in the S Plains.

[kukblue1]

Position of the low Monday will be critical if we get storms, or even much rainfall, in Oklahoma. Looking out further, there is a more of classic spring storm showing up in the models around 4/8 that will likely be a severe weather maker somewhere in the S Plains.

Agree as of Thursday still looks like an Eastern Oklahoma event but things always change. Euro is slower and targets central Oklahoma a bit more. Tornado risk low as of now

[SEMIweather]

Position of the low Monday will be critical if we get storms, or even much rainfall, in Oklahoma. Looking out further, there is a more of classic spring storm showing up in the models around 4/8 that will likely be a severe weather maker somewhere in the S Plains.

And on a related note...the cloud situation for the total solar eclipse in SE Oklahoma on the 8th looks horrendous as of right now, unfortunately. Still over 10 days out so hoping things will change...but the overall pattern doesn't seem great.

[kukblue1]

Enhanced risk now for Eastern Oklahoma. Looking like a squall line event at this time (Friday morning) but some computer models are slowing the system down and deep trough which could put central and SW Oklahoma into play with a bit more of a tornado threat. However like last system need to see what is happening the morning of the event. This one will have more moisture to work with though.

[kukblue1]

Wind and Hail maybe a good squall line on Monday but not seeing much more. Tornado threat is very low. Oh course it's going to change but as of Saturday Afternoon not impressive setup. Not like April 6th-8th.