February 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[Bunty]

I just have this feeling we're going to transition into an early severe weather season.

No wonder. The barometer has been sinking to low levels seldom seen in this part of the country. 29.28 in OKC. In Wichita 29.15. A minor hurricane gets down to around 29.00. Hopefully, that will only be the only unusually extreme part of the weather coming. At least I'm glad it's not April with TV meteorologists getting concerned about tornadoes.

[Anonymous.]

40-50mph gusts blasting into the OKC metro this afternoon. There has already been several 60s and some 70+ gusts out in western Oklahoma where the dust is originating.

[SEMIweather]

Major dust storm ongoing in the Eastern TX Panhandle and Western OK. Could see some of this make it into OKC by sunset.

[Anonymous.]

Yea the dust is already here, brown-orange sunset coming this evening for OKC with community sneeze-attacks.

[OKCretro]

drove from chickasa to north okc yesterday it was pretty wild.
Major dust storm in chickasa all the way to will rogers airport. From the airport to I-40 it started clearing up and one could see the sun again. North of I-40, clear day.

[BG918]

HRRR model showing storms firing in central OK around 6-7 pm and moving rapidly northeast. Severe threat appears to be greatest east of Hwy 75

[Anonymous.]

MD is out and storms are going up across N TX. It looks like storm initiation will occur SE of OKC metro.

Say goodbye to this mild weather, N winds will continue to increase tonight and we will be in the 20s by sunrise Thursday. Rebound heading into the weekend where we will go back to 50s and near 70F on Sunday.

[Anonymous.]

The storms moving up I-35 look like they may actually impact OKC. Especially SE sides.

[BG918]

After a couple chilly days there will be a big warm up across OK. Temps in the 70's on Sunday and Monday before next storm system arrives on Tues. night/Wednesday. No signs of a big cool down at least within the next couple weeks.

[Anonymous.]

High fire danger Tues-Wed.

We had a nice break from the wind today (Monday). We will have a chance at some storms developing along and E of I-35 late Tuesday into Wednesday. With that, strong S winds will return. Backside of the storm we will cool down into the 40s for Friday, but will rebound into a beautiful weekend in the 60s.

I noticed some trees have started to bud already, Spring is coming.

[Anonymous.]

SPC has upgraded a narrow area from about I-35 and points east to a Slight Risk of severe storms that would cover early Wednesday morning. Fast moving showers and storms will develop from SW to NE. However, most storm maturity may occur E of OKC.

Also worth noting SPC has added a 15% probability of severe weather across a large swath of OK for Sunday evening.

[BG918]

HRRR showing storms moving across central OK around 2-3 am. Dewpoints will be in the low 60's overnight so it will feel more humid


Slight severe weather risk closer to 6-7 am across eastern OK

[kukblue1]

Now that that weak event is over let's start focusing on Sunday please. I know it's a little early but if you live in the western half of the state you need to clean out your storm shelter. Sunday is looking really good for storms really good. But it's early but please pay attention

[Anonymous.]

Nice quick drink for most of the state this morning.

SPC has increased probabilities for Sunday to 30% across W and NW OK. Maintaining the original 15% extending into C OK. This would be due to dryline supercells becoming more clustered and/or linear as they move east.

[BG918]

Glad to see western OK at least with the possibility of some rain/storms next week, they haven't seen the recent rains like the rest of the state. I mean look at this..

[Anonymous.]

Today, SPC expanding the 30% severe probabilities to include all of W and C OK for Sunday evening. Noting supercell development out west with a transition to squall line hosting QLCS tornado risk.

I am a big proponent of one-storm-at-a-time forecasting, but it is worth a fun mention that during this severe weather forecast, models are suggesting a winter storm across the same area heading into next weekend.

[kukblue1]

Today, SPC expanding the 30% severe probabilities to include all of W and C OK for Sunday evening. Noting supercell development out west with a transition to squall line hosting QLCS tornado risk.

I am a big proponent of one-storm-at-a-time forecasting, but it is worth a fun mention that during this severe weather forecast, models are suggesting a winter storm across the same area heading into next weekend.

For many reason I trust the severe weather forecast much more than the winter storm forecast. The cold front will probably win out Sunday though they always seem to do this time of the year.

[BG918]

It's that time of year when big storm systems come across the Plains often with severe weather on the warm side and snow on the backside. Oklahoma is usually too far south for the snow but sometimes can happen if there is enough cold air. These are the types of storms that bring bigtime snows to the Front Range of CO. March is the snowiest month in Denver, followed by April..

[kukblue1]

Freezing Drizzle possible tomorrow morning could get interesting. As far as Sunday goes it's not too often that 3 days out the GFS and Euro agree and right now they kind of do. QLCS tornadoes possible if the front comes in fast. If not could be some really big storms. 5pm Thursday update. There are some computer models that if the verify this could be a high risk event?

[stratosphere]

^ The freezing drizzle potential tomorrow is interesting given what happened a couple of weeks ago. I thought they had forecasted a high in the mid 40's tomorrow but now they are backing off that and it looks to be a high of around freezing .

[taha]

i don't know if this is the right place for this so please remove if it's not. but i have a plum tree that started to flower 3 days ago and today the tree is fully white. i am guessing this was due to the warmer temps lately, the tree is about 8-9 years old and gives us buckets of plums every season. will the upcoming cold front kill the tree/can i do anything to mitigate this?

[kukblue1]

Only 39 for the high in OKC today. This cold air might play a roll in Sunday's weather. Nam model isn't showing much in the way of storms. There is a lot of bust potential right now for Sunday. Cap? Cold air sticks around? Moisture return doesn't make it? But a few computer models are going crazy so of course everyone will go with that. Euro GFS are very aggressive the Nam is meh nothing

[Anonymous.]

The cold air is much more stubborn than the models anticipated. This happens pretty often.

[BG918]

OK dodged the bullet with this Arctic front. Right on the borderline between some extremely cold temps to the north. Denver has been below zero the past two nights with highs in the single digits.

[Anonymous.]

This pool of cold air is very strong. Temperature rebound for Sunday is looking like a tall order right now. I would say the severe threat is highest out west with a diminishing threat heading toward C OK. This could change Saturday afternoon and evening if the S winds really cut into the area heading into Sunday. Right now it looks like OKC high on Sunday may barely crack mid 60s.