May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

[5alive]

[damonsmuz]

For those keeping up with the CIPS analogs for next Tuesday. Compared to yesterday,there's been an increase in the tornado analogs percentage. Look at this similar to the way you look at a tornado probability from SPC. While the low pressure is not very strong, climatology would say a low pressure system,in the Southern Plains,in the 3rd week of May , would favor some sort of tornado threat.

[kukblue1]

For those keeping up with the CIPS analogs for next Tuesday. Compared to yesterday,there's been an increase in the tornado analogs percentage. Look at this similar to the way you look at a tornado probability from SPC. While the low pressure is not very strong, climatology would say a low pressure system,in the Southern Plains,in the 3rd week of May , would favor some sort of tornado threat.

I agree and I'm good with a general area and words like SOUTHERN PLAINS cause this map is going to shift. Even Monday is looking good for storms heck all next week is but still too soon to narrow it down to which parts of Oklahoma.

[jn1780]

Putting a risk map 7 days out isn't such a bad thing. Considering SPC has the option of putting a risk map 8 days out

True, but they haven't bitten yet since there is no consistent model agreement. When the SPC did a few weeks ago on that Tuesday event ended up fizzling out.

It will probably be at least a somewhat more active since the cold front is not crashing through. I'm just glad its not going to be cold in May next week.

[kukblue1]

What until the see what the 12Z GFS did for Monday night in Western and Southwestern OK. Holy crap. Remember it's only one model run. Deep Breaths

[kukblue1]

Outflow boundaries, overnight morning rains, where the low actually sets up. There might be a lot of factors coming into play for severe weather next week and might not even know to morning of or the night before. My best guess right now is Southern Texas Panhandle, Nw Texas, Southwest Oklahoma Monday and Central Texas maybe up into Southern Oklahoma Tuesday but this is a messy set up as of Friday Morning. I would expect a Risk area from the SPC tomorrow morning for Monday and Tuesday but as of right now nothing.

[SEMIweather]

There’ll probably be a marginal to slight risk of severe storms pretty much every day over the next week, but it seems fairly obvious that flooding is going to be the main threat from this pattern.

[Anonymous.]

Yes, just a big mess of storms for some, nothing for others. Outflow boundaries moving on coinflips and sparking additional storms.

Just check radar if you have outdoor plans, there is little organization expected.

[kukblue1]

From the NWS this Afternoon: .LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

Should any late afternoon convection develop Saturday across our
area, storms could be ongoing for a few hours during the evening
hours till sundown. Any late afternoon convection firing up near
the dryline in the Panhandles could produce a few severe storms
across far western Oklahoma should any track in before sundown, with
large hail and damaging wind gusts as the primary hazards. Otherwise
aloft, a large amplitude trough will be in place across the
California Coast, with a ridge downflow extending from the Southern
Rocky Mountains to the Southern High Plains. Expecting the ridge to
kink into a shortwave, and interact with mid-level moisture to
produce some additional but higher based storms overnight moving
west to east across our area into Sunday. Although elevated
instability is expected to decrease overnight to 1000-2000 J/kg of
MUCAPE, the enhancement of the nocturnal low-level jet may produce a
few strong to marginal severe storms. Another shortwave rolling in
off the Southern High Plains will bring another round of elevated
storms Sunday evening and overnight across our area. With steep low
to mid level lapse rates persisting, will continue to see a marginal
risk for severe storms with hail and winds as the hazards.

By Monday, our near zonal flow aloft shifts more southwesterly as
the large scale upper trough digging across the U.S. Southwest
starts approaching, keeping a wet forecast every day next week. The
persistent rainfall accumulations could shift from severe to more
flooding hazards by early Monday, with over 4-inches of storm total
accumulated rainfall by then. The models bring the upper low &
trough axis through our area toward late Wednesday adding another
couple of inches of additional rainfall. By Thursday expecting the
upper system to gradually exit, although could see another wave come
through on Friday with additional rain possible.

[SEMIweather]

Picturesque storm cloud south of Downtown right now

[jn1780]

Yeah pretty much a big wet mess next week. Looking toward the end of the month/beginning of June, there may be a few more severe weather opportunities before summer kicks in.

[Bits_Of_Real_Panther]

Outside of the noon Saturday tests, may be the first year in sometime I haven't heard sirens warning of impending doom!

[kukblue1]

I think the biggest question mark for Monday is do we recover from Morning storms and how long do the linger.

[C_M_25]

What’s the hail threat for this first round of showers and storms in the morning? Trying to decide if I need to move my truck in to avoid any hail.

[kukblue1]

What’s the hail threat for this first round of showers and storms in the morning? Trying to decide if I need to move my truck in to avoid any hail.

Low. Your looking around 7-10am for storms from the latest computer runs. So if you're an early riser and there is something happening you'll be able to move it then

[kukblue1]

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

Renewed convective development is expected to our west Sunday
afternoon and is likely to move into western OK during the
evening. Models show moderate instability along with 30-35 knots
of bulk shear to help maintain storms into western portions of the
area, with instability dropping off substantially across central
OK. It is likely that storms may try to grow upscale into an MCS
across western OK and then weaken as they move eastward into
central OK overnight.

The upper low to our west will continue moving eastward on Monday,
with most of the model guidance showing a shortwave rounding the
base of the trough into west Texas by Monday afternoon. Moisture
recovery behind Sunday night's convection is a bit uncertain as some
models show deeper moisture and better instability getting shunted
well south of our area Monday morning. Assuming we can get
sufficient airmass recovery, storms will likely initiate along the
dryline late Monday afternoon across the TX panhandle and spread
eastward into western OK and western north TX into the evening.
The mid to upper flow is not all that strong but should be
sufficient for supercells with initial discrete development, with
an accompanying risk for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a
tornado or two. Upscale growth into another MCS is possible by
later Monday evening which would then move across much of the rest
of the area Monday night, bringing with it the risk for damaging
wind gusts.

Depending on how convection evolves Monday night, Tuesday may end up
with a lull in convection for central and northern OK if the airmass
is sufficiently worked over. Storms may linger into Tuesday
afternoon and evening along residual outflow across southern and
southeastern portions of the area as the upper trough remains to our
west. The flood threat will need to be watched for these areas as
several rounds of convection are possible Tuesday into Tuesday
night.

Occasional rain chances continue Wednesday into next weekend as
upper troughing reloads to our west and upper ridging builds over
the eastern US. This should keep moisture flowing northward with
embedded shortwave impulses likely leading to periods of enhanced
convection. Occasional severe weather is possible but no real signal
exists in the guidance at this range to narrow down specific days
with higher chances. Flooding will also be a concern over the next
week as multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will lead to several
inches of rain, with localized amounts of greater than 5"
possible.

[SEMIweather]

Still not seeing anything to make me particularly concerned about the severe weather threat for the OKC area with this pattern. Will update if anything changes my thinking, but seems likely that the main severe weather threat should focus over Western OK and the Texas Panhandle.

The flooding threat is definitely real here, though.

[kukblue1]

Still not seeing anything to make me particularly concerned about the severe weather threat for the OKC area with this pattern. Will update if anything changes my thinking, but seems likely that the main severe weather threat should focus over Western OK and the Texas Panhandle.

The flooding threat is definitely real here, though.

YEP. Unless we don't have storms Monday morning or the atmosphere can recover from Morning storms then things might be able to get up into the Metro but that is a Big IF

[SEMIweather]

Nice soaking rain today, amounts ranged from about half an inch in the NW suburbs to over two inches SE of I-44. This complex is slowly moving out and will have stabilized the atmosphere enough to prevent any additional storm formation over the area today. Next MCS makes a run at the Metro from the Texas Panhandle early tomorrow morning. Most model runs have this diving SW of the area, but we may see some storms forms on the north flank around sunrise tomorrow.

Overnight tomorrow/early Tuesday Morning we will see yet another MCS move into the area from the west, and this one will likely be able to maintain its strength enough for a damaging wind threat. This complex may also stall out/backbuild either near or just south of the Metro during the day on Tuesday, potentially causing some major flooding issues.

Specifics get very murky after this timeframe, but expect continued storm chances all the way into next weekend.

[kukblue1]

Enhanced risk for the 3 counties in far Southwestern Oklahoma for Monday. Altus and south and west from there. I-35 slight risk for winds maybe hail. Tornado chances for Oklahoma is very very low unless you down by Altus. In fact SPC doesn't even have a risk for Tornadoes in Oklahoma Tomorrow minus those 3 counties (Jackson and Harmon maybe Greer)

[Bunty]

Yeah pretty much a big wet mess next week. Looking toward the end of the month/beginning of June, there may be a few more severe weather opportunities before summer kicks in.

But the June 15th, 1990 Stillwater tornado reminds me every year not to write off mid June as meaning the threat of tornadoes have subsided. I wouldn't trust it until July 4th. Even after that, even though it's quite likely there will be no tornadoes, it doesn't mean the summer heat might whip up a storm with very high winds that won't blow something down.

[Anonymous.]

Big time stuff down across NW TX this afternoon. Should evolve into an eventual MCS that pushes ENE toward OK, but likely loses steam as it approaches C OK. More rain is good, though. Flood watch out this week for a solid portion of the state.

[jn1780]

But the June 15th, 1990 Stillwater tornado reminds me every year not to write off mid June as meaning the threat of tornadoes have subsided. I wouldn't trust it until July 4th. Even after that, even though it's quite likely there will be no tornadoes, it doesn't mean the summer heat might whip up a storm with very high winds that won't blow something down.

That's true. I was mostly talking about the classic May pattern were use to(Or used to know. lol) . Next week we will have a low to our west and a ridge to our east so we look to have some chances of storms.

Rain chances will continue to slowly shift into our eastern zones
Thur as the closed low fills and finally lifts northeastward into
the Central Plains. Increasing heights into the weekend will
result in a warm muggy trend. At least Chc PoPs will return to a
large portion of our FA late in the week into the weekend, on the
western fringe of an upper high to our east and on the eastern
fringe of a deep, broad closed low to our west. Several
perturbations within this southerly mid to upper flow are
expected to move over the southern and central plains during this
time, with plenty of moisture.

[kukblue1]

10:30am and clearing has already started in far Southwestern Oklahoma. Could get very interesting down there.

[C_M_25]

10:30am and clearing has already started in far Southwestern Oklahoma. Could get very interesting down there.

Mainly just a hail threat most likely.