General Weather Discussion - April 2019

[Anonymous.]

Storms popping directly west of OKC metro right now (9:30pm). They are not severe, but might be by the time they impact majority population.

Storm is coming into Mustang now, will be hitting rest of OKC from there (10:10pm ish)

[Anonymous.]

Storm is now indicated as severe. Movement is still east into OKC proper, from west to east [west, now (10pm) - east side (11pm)].

However, storm is stuck behind the outflow boundary and this will help to weaken the storm(s). Wind is the main threat.

[OKC Guy]

In far NW OKC we just got lots of hail and lots of rain. All in last 20 minutes. Hail half covered yard.

[SEMIweather]

I got hail for 20 minutes straight a few miles north of Downtown, but fortunately none of it was much larger than quarter-sized. Really nice storm.

[baralheia]

I didn't see much hail on the south side, 4mi due east of the airport... but my rain gauge shows we picked up 0.63" of rainfall. That was a nice storm that put on a very pretty show of lightning and thunder!

[Anonymous.]

Backside spotty showers and some rumbles of thunder coming in from the west. Short-lived and will die out heading into dark.

[Bunty]

FLOOD WATCH OUT
The area affected runs from Stillwater to the southwest corner of Oklahoma. It includes all the Oklahoma City Metro Area. It's in effect until 1 pm Tuesday.

AREA COVERED:

[Anonymous.]

Waves of rain and storms moves in tonight. The general theme seems to be a focus of heaviest rainfall from SW to C OK along the I-44 corridor. Here are some model predictions for amounts over the next 3 days.

[Timshel]

It's Festival of the Arts week so of course there is rain! Glad there doesn't appear to be much risk for any severe weather though. The storms a few years ago were horrible for everyone involved with the festival. I'm bummed that rain appears to be very likely tomorrow morning - planned to go out there first thing but that does not appear incredibly likely.

[SEMIweather]

Some major rainfall moving through this morning. The OKC East Mesonet site picked up 0.41" in 15 minutes as the heaviest storms passed by. Farther to the SW, Hobart is at 5.40" of rain and counting from this event.

[jonny d]

Seems like, unless more builds south and east, OKC will not get much going forward.

[jn1780]

What is the long term pattern looking like as we approach May? I'm hearing there are hints of things possible picking up severe weather picking up. I know we havent been being hit as hard with the cold fronts the past couple of weeks.

[bchris02]

What is the long term pattern looking like as we approach May? I'm hearing there are hints of things possible picking up severe weather picking up. I know we havent been being hit as hard with the cold fronts the past couple of weeks.

Last I heard is that high pressure is going to set up, keeping things relatively quiet. Don't want to speak to soon but as of right now, it's looking like severe weather this year isn't favoring the southern plains.

[C_M_25]

High pressure this early??? That doesn’t seem like it’s going to be a good thing for our rainy season and summer dry spell.

[jn1780]

High pressure this early??? That doesn’t seem like it’s going to be a good thing for our rainy season and summer dry spell.

I follow some of the forum topics on stormtrack and they are getting increasingly excited about potential western troughing taking shape the first week of May. I dont know what their taking about half the time since I dont really know how to read models or chase storms. Lol I do get the impression though that were far from high pressure or "ridge of death" building in. I like hearing from our local guys on this forum since they put things in terms we understand.

[Anonymous.]

Mostly cloudy today, perhaps some sun peaking out from W to E toward the end of the day. Beautiful end to the week and weekend shaping up.

Looking ahead into next week. Potential for a rain/storm pattern to setup somewhere across the plains. Not guaranteed by any means, but we could have multiple weak lows develop across NW TX into OK and ride up the N/NE for several days. This will keep rain chances in the forecast, but it does not look like a total wash out.

[WhoRepsTheLurker]

An interesting weather pattern to close out April and start May. Severe storms are possible later today and through the overnight hours. Severe storms are possible tomorrow too, depending on when storms can clear out or if they can clear off tomorrow. All forms of severe weather are possible with this system as it lingers through Wednesday.

[OKC Guy]

We are in a flood watch for a day or so. Next few days:

This Afternoon
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 5pm. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 67. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 7pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 61. North wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Tuesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could be severe and produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a high near 74. South wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Tuesday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 63. South wind 8 to 11 mph.

Wednesday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. South wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...5#.XMdzvhZOnYU

[SEMIweather]

Thunderstorm chances as far as the eye can see in the most recent NWS forecast. Straight through next weekend and into Monday, though obviously it won't storm every day.

[Easy180]

Mike Morgan’s 5 and 6 PM forecasts focused more on heavy rain than anything with the boundary to the SE of the metro. No way he can be charged with hype crimes on this round.

[Anonymous.]

Short-range models suggesting another round of storms developing this afternoon across SW and C OK. Tornado potential is there for embedded supercells along the line if it develops.

[SoonerDave]

Looks like LLJ has kicked in more than previously expected. Could be a rough and tumble afternoon.

[Anonymous.]

MD is out. TOR watch likely coming in the next hour. The greatest tornado threat is just S and E of OKC metro.

Mesoscale Discussion 0477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Areas affected...Oklahoma...Far North Texas...Far Northwest
Arkansas...Far Southeast Kansas...Far Southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 301641Z - 301845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is likely to increase across the region
over the next few hours. A tornado threat, along with wind damage
and large hail will be possible as cells intensify. A tornado watch
will likely be needed relatively soon.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a stationary front
from north-central Oklahoma extending southwestward into northwest
Texas. Along and south of the boundary, surface dewpoints are in the
upper 60s and lower 70s F, which is contributing to a moderately
unstable airmass. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE values across the
warm sector in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Along the instability
gradient, a small cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is
developing in north-central to northeastern Oklahoma. This activity
is expected to continue to move northeastward across northeast
Oklahoma. The Tulsa WSR-88D VWP shows 0-6 km shear of 35 kt with 0-3
km storm relative helicity near 270 m2/s2. This shear environment
will support supercell development associated with a tornado threat.
The tornado threat will be greatest with cells that track
northeastward along the front. Large hail and wind damage will also
be possible with this activity.

Further to the south across southern Oklahoma, convection is
beginning to initiate in the vicinity of Ardmore. Some uncertainty
exists concerning how fast this activity will ramp up this
afternoon. For this reason, a tornado watch will likely be needed
over the next hour. The current thinking is that cells will
gradually increase in coverage and intensity with a severe threat
developing by 18Z in south-central and east-central Oklahoma. The
deep-layer shear environment will favor supercell development. In
addition, RAP forecast soundings gradually increase low-level shear
this afternoon across east-central Oklahoma, which will become more
favorable for tornadoes. Large hail and wind damage will also be
possible with supercells that develop.

..Broyles/Hart.. 04/30/2019

[jn1780]

I believe this is the first tornado watch of the year.

[Anonymous.]

Some clearing attempting to build in along and just E of I-44 corridor. Any enhanced heating will aid in thunderstorm severity. Right now it is difficult to say, but we could see some isolated cells develop right along I-44 from SW into C OK in the next couple hours. Then later have more develop in a cluster or line just W of OKC and trail down into SW OK. All storms will be capable of large hail and tornadoes. Any isolated cells will have the best shot rotating.

Paramaters for this tornado watch are particularly dangerous just S and SE of C OK.