OU Football 2024 Season

[Zuplar]

If Arnold was the primary problem then why was OU unable to even compete with South Carolina or couldn’t beat Navy. Arnold is an easy scapegoat, but the program can’t even field a competent tight end or outbid historically inferior programs for one. OU still can’t get a TE. Doesn’t sound like a blueblood program to me. The problems go way deeper than Arnold.

I was watching Grant Calcaterra this weekend and missing the days when we had a good TE.

[PhiAlpha]

If OU is "fine" then why have they had losing records in 2 of the last 3 seasons? If OU has plenty of big donors, then how come OU can't compete with other schools for portal players because they are regularly outbid on their top targets?

They didn’t get outbid on their top target and they haven’t gotten out bid on most of the people they’re targeting. They just aren’t targeting the most expensive guys in a lot of cases outside of their QB because they had to spent a decent amount of money retaining the current roster and they aren’t going to over pay when the double eagle guys at tech yolo $900k+ into the 19th ranked transfer WR from Marshall who no one else believes is worth that. Maybe it works out for them…but the guy isn’t the type of game changer that warrants that type of money when you need 4 WRs (not including trying to retain Burks and Gibson, your potentially game changing receivers) and have a budget that you need to spend on other positions ($2.7 million plus to a qb and a ton to retain the guys on defense). That has been the case on most of the guys we’ve lost on other TE…and i haven’t a clue what’s going on there.

But yeah vibes aren’t great right now. I think we can have some success with Arbuckle and Mateer next year but odds are not in our favor in the near term. 9-10 wins is possible if the offense is good and we’re able to replace the Stutsman, Bowman and the other guys graduating/declaring on the defenses . 6-8 is more likely and we’re likely talking about a head coaching search.

I think Alley leaving has more to do with the reason that Ted Roof was the DC for 2 years. It’s BV’s defense and back then everyone thought it would be tough to get a young, up and coming coordinator to coach under him for the same reason that Jeff Lebby had a bunch of detractors when he was an OC target while coaching under Kiffin (aside from the Briles stuff)…BV was going to get all the credit for the defensive performance. Lebby left for similar money to prove himself under a defensive minded HC and that seems to be what Alley may be doing by leaving to coach under an offensive focused HC. The state of the program could’ve factored into it but it isn’t like he’s going to a stable program in WVU. He does probably has 2-3 years of job security instead of 1-2 and will be able to raise his profile for an HC job (Rich Rod is 61 so possibly even at WVU) so it’s pretty understandable. He was never going to be viewed as the real DC here.

As far as transfers go, most of the transfers that are leaving at a high rate are guys that aren’t playing. Lewis Carter that is really a disappointment from a production prospective and not just based on potential. JA most likely wasn’t going to start here in his 3rd season with his 3rd OC, Bauer Sharp would’ve been decent as the 4th or 5th receiving option on the offense but everyone was ready to run him off because of all the dumb stuff he was asked to do and he was a terrible blocker, Nic Anderson is great and worth the money he’ll be paid IF HE PLAYS…I have a feeling there was enough going on behind the scene from a health or attitude perspective that made OU hesitant to tie up a ton of NIL money in trying to keep him just to watch him ride the bench again. Same for Farooq who was offered way more than we thought he was worth by Maryland. The other WRs transferring were busts of underwhelming at best. Aside from Lewis Carter (who most likely wasn’t going to start) all of the defensive guys had been passed over by younger players or weren’t going to be worth their NIL ask based on what they produced or how much they were projected to play next year. All the transfers could be a cultural issue or it could primarily be OU deciding to put its foot down and not over pay for players that they watch every day and don’t think are worth it…just look at where most of them have ended up for proof of that and/or who else we have on the roster for proof of that .

There’s no guarantee of anything but aside from making a poor OC hire (that I’m frankly still stunned went so horribly with SL’s track record…figured we’d just be really average at worst…boy was that wrong) and betting on some young QBs that clearly weren’t ready or good enough to take over for DG, BV has generally done a good job. The defense has improved significantly from year to year (using ESPN’s Defensive Efficiency metric that isolates defensive performance they were 55 in 2022, 11th in 2023, and after moving into a much tougher conference actually improved to 7th this year), improved from 6-7 after the roster was decimated by Riley to 10-3 before screwing himself with the SL hire, and recruiting has been better than it has been better than it was under Riley with a drop off this year primarily due to needing to get under the new scholarship/roster limit and signing 18 guys so that they could maintain more flexibility in the portal.

I think the best option to give ourselves a chance at success in the near term was giving BV a shot to right the ship with a new OC and QB. If it works, we’re in CFP contention next year with a chance to make a real championship run in 2026. If it doesn’t, you’re just starting the rebuild a year later. Fire him after the 2024 season and you nearly guaranteeing a massive roster exodus on defense that can’t be fixed in one or two offseasons and defense usually takes a lot longer to fix through recruiting/portal than the offense does. You’re absolute floor drops from 5-6 wins to probably 3-4 next year and sure…maybe you will get a quick turnaround like Cignetti or to a lesser extent Elko in 2024, but you’re most likely out of contention for anything for 3-4 years and if it goes further south you’re looking at several losing seasons that aren’t just the result of going .500 and losing in a bowl game. And firing BV RIGHT NOW, as you suggested would frankly be stupid. Do that and we’re winning 3 games next year…the time to do it would’ve been after the LSU game.

Basically to me…it’s a chance at success by correcting a hiring and personnel mistake after already having some success previously vs almost guaranteed failure for 1-2 seasons with the only benefit being starting a potentially unnecessary rebuild sooner. It may not work out but delaying Armageddon by one whole season to find out and at worst probably finish with 6 wins again when the alternative is a potentially program altering player exodus with no ability to backfill and 3-4 wins just seems like irrational fan speak at this point.

[Bellaboo]

What bugged me the most about SL, was every time they zoomed in on him in the booth, he was a spectator. Practically 100% of the coordinators you see during college and the NFL will have a notepad and or laptop in front of them.

He might have had headphones, but never was taking notes.

[Dob Hooligan]

I don't think anyone knows how quickly things can turn around nowadays. The portal and NIL make the old fashioned "takes time to build a roster" mind set a relic. Coach Prime has showed us that.

I think the current buyout for BV makes any talk about replacing him before late 2025 unrealistic. That a lot of money that could be used on roster, etc.

[PhiAlpha]

The defense is not stout, did you forget giving up a 95 yard touchdown run against Navy?

I can see you saying this as the defensive coordinator:

Gives up a 14 point lead: "The defense is stout anyway"

Gives up a 95 yard touchdown run "The defense is stout anyway"

Gives up a long pass for a touchdown "The defense is stout anyway"

Gives up a long run for a touchdown "The defense is stout anyway"

I am glad you are not the defensive coordinator

You are the definition of a casual fan if this is how you analyzed the defense, especially based on the bowl game in which the two of the guys who anchored it didn't play (the players most responsible for that long run…kanek and Bogonowksi (a freshman)…likely don’t play if Stutsman and Bowman hadn’t opted out), and they were running players in and out like it was a scrimmage.

The defense was very good this season, which didn't show to the casual fan because of how historically terrible the offense was and how often they turned the ball over…give offenses more opportunities to score than nearly any other team in college football, then they will find ways to do it eventually… ESPN's efficiency metrics show that as well as several others.

[PhiAlpha]

I don't think anyone knows how quickly things can turn around nowadays. The portal and NIL make the old fashioned "takes time to build a roster" mind set a relic. Coach Prime has showed us that.

I think the current buyout for BV makes any talk about replacing him before late 2025 unrealistic. That a lot of money that could be used on roster, etc.

Coach Prime's records:

2023: 4-8 overall, 1-8 in a terrible Pac 12
2024: 9-4 overall, 7-2 in a mediocre Big 12, Blow out loss to a fellow conference opponent in a bowl game in which his stars played (to their credit, that was extremely admirable)

BV's worst two seasons were 2 wins better than 4-8 in better conferences and included bowl appearances, his best season was 10-3 in a similar conference. Prime has shown to be a capable coach but using this as an example of a quick turn around and comparing Colorado to OU isn't it. Cignetti or Elko are better examples but for everything that went into it, Elko had a 1 game improvement over Jimbo Fisher after 6 seasons as their HC (not 3) and he had all the NIL money and donor support in the world at his disposal nearly immediately after the portal opened last season. Cignetti played the 33 ranked schedule which was something like 68th prior to playing Notre Dame in the Playoff...great turnaround obviously but this OU team likely wins 9-10 games vs. that schedule. Again, nothing is guaranteed.

Again, we improved to 10-3 after a 6-7 season JUST LAST YEAR and the defense improved drastically over the last 2 seasons. It seems worth figuring out whether the decision to promote SL and ride with JA was the main problem and whether it’s correctable with one of the hottest OC’s in college football and the number 1 portal player at qb.

[PhiAlpha]

If Arnold was the primary problem then why was OU unable to even compete with South Carolina or couldn’t beat Navy. Arnold is an easy scapegoat, but the program can’t even field a competent tight end or outbid historically inferior programs for one. OU still can’t get a TE. Doesn’t sound like a blueblood program to me. The problems go way deeper than Arnold.

LOL, because against SC the back up freshman QB…that JA beat out and then lost the job to…turned the ball over 3 times in the first 3 series giving SC great field position and BV made a bad hire at OC.

Maybe they think Devon Mitchell will be the guy at TE next year when he would’ve been a freshman if he hadn’t reclassified and graduated in 2024…which doesn’t make any sense based on the bowl game…or they think Kaden Helms will be a player after a healthy offseason…no idea…the TE situation makes no sense and it seems that they either have a plan that we’re unaware of (ie. they’re waiting for JJF to take another job to avoid his buyout and bringing someone as a TE coach who’s going to bring a player with him), they didn’t like the guys they lost out on enough to pay more than the for guys they have on the roster or lower level guys they signed, or they’re massively incompetent. Regardless, JJF seemingly needs to be replaced which is disappointing.

[BDP]

You are the definition of a casual fan if this is how you analyzed the defense, especially based on the bowl game in which the two of the guys who anchored it didn't play (the players most responsible for that long run…kanek and Bogonowksi (a freshman)…likely don’t play if Stutsman and Bowman hadn’t opted out), and they were running players in and out like it was a scrimmage.

Yeah, basically now, more than ever, bowl games outside of the playoffs should never be viewed as anything but a glorified scrimmage with a sponsor. In almost all cases they do not reflect the team from this year or project the team for next year. This has been true to some extent for a long time, but it's all but meaningless now. It helps get some guys who have never seen the field some time against D-1 talent, but nothing carries over year-to-year anymore and bowls games are just exhibitions during free agency.

And, in this case, we played a service academy, which are probably the only teams outside of playoff teams that largely keep their teams from the current season intact going into bowl season. It wouldn't be surprising if we see more success from service academy teams going forward because they will have the one thing most other teams won't: continuity. Just like when we see basketball teams with zero NBA talent make a run in the tournament just because they're loaded with 5th year seniors that are literally playing the apex moment of their career. It simply is not like it was before and it seems people ate still having trouble adjusting. lol

These aren't excuses. OU needs to be better in a lot of areas, but looking at it like it's 1995 just doesn't apply today.

[PhiAlpha]

Yeah, basically now, more than ever, bowl games outside of the playoffs should never be viewed as anything but a glorified scrimmage with a sponsor. In almost all cases they do not reflect the team from this year or project the team for next year. This has been true to some extent for a long time, but it's all but meaningless now. It helps get some guys who have never seen the field some time against D-1 talent, but nothing carries over year-to-year anymore and bowls games are just exhibitions during free agency.

They really shouldn't count for or against your record at this point unless you're in the playoff.

But yeah...other than optics...who cares if you're 6-6 for the season or 6-7/7-6 after a bowl game in freaking TCU's stadium at 11 AM on a Friday in which half your team isn't even available to play and nearly all of your skill players on offense went to Prom in April? It just doesn't matter that much except to talking heads, irrational fans that are just dying to freak out over something (THIS IS IT! This is the reason we need to FIRE EVERYONE!) and the guys that got to play in the game. The main thing is that they got more reps and coaching time for the young guys over the last three weeks and that they got some playing experience. No one's opinion should be any different based on that result than after watching OU beat Alabama and then lose to LSU to conclude the season. I've felt the same since the Texas game...this was a lost season due to injuries, a bad OC hire and poor QB play...just need to get through it, with hopefully a few bright spots along the way, and regroup for next year. If the results aren't significantly better in 2025, heads need to roll. No one's job should be safe from the top of the athletic department down to the GAs and the medical/training staff.

Edit to your Edit: Exactly, not an excuse... we should never lose to a G5 team but losing to Navy's entire two deep with half of our team gone and youth getting significant playing time just is what it is and is not a reason to change decisions that were made at the end of the season.

[Bill Robertson]

They really shouldn't count for or against your record at this point unless you're in the playoff.

But yeah...other than optics...who cares if you're 6-6 for the season or 6-7/7-6 after a bowl game in freaking TCU's stadium at 11 AM on a Friday in which half your team isn't even available to play and nearly all of your skill players on offense went to Prom in April? It just doesn't matter that much except to talking heads, irrational fans that are just dying to freak out over something and the guys that got to play in the game. No ones opinion should be any different based on that result than after watching OU beat Alabama and then lose to LSU to conclude the season. I've felt the same since the Texas game...this was a lost season due to injuries, a bad OC hire and poor QB play...just need to get through it and regroup for next year and if the results aren't significantly better, heads need to roll from the top of the athletic department down to the GAs and the medical/training staff.

True. Bowl games shouldn't count since so many players opt out for one reason or another. Oh. BTW. Except for the military academy teams. They aren't subject to NIL, the portal or going pro early. So half an OU team lost by the decision to go for the win to a complete 8-3 Navy team. I'm perfectly ok with that.

[Dob Hooligan]

True. Bowl games shouldn't count since so many players opt out for one reason or another. Oh. BTW. Except for the military academy teams. They aren't subject to NIL, the portal or going pro early. So half an OU team lost by the decision to go for the win to a complete 8-3 Navy team. I'm perfectly ok with that.

Yeah....hit that 2 point conversion and "We're on the right track going into next season. That Hawkins really showed some intestinal fortitude, and he might just push Mateer for the starting job next season!"

[bamarsha]

Just remember, BV took a dumpster fire to 6-7, made significant improvements to get to 10-3, then had some massive bad luck and some mistakes (hope he learns from them) to fall back to 6-7. It's completely reasonable to think, with the offensive changes and some health luck, he can get back to 10-3 this coming season... or better. On the other hand, if he didn't learn from his mistakes, the new OC/QB don't live up to the hype, injuries strike again, etc., we could be back at 6-7.

Let's not forget that the roster limits "encouraged" several players to enter the transfer portal and/or not sign with us. OU has been "historically" a top 10 NIL program, so that doesn't seem to be an issue... especially keeping in mind you can't pay every guy on the roster over $1 million per season.

[PhiAlpha]

Yeah....hit that 2 point conversion and "We're on the right track going into next season. That Hawkins really showed some intestinal fortitude, and he might just push Mateer for the starting job next season!"

Yeah exactly...and how different is that result? Oh crap, we lost going for the win on one 3 yard attempt FIRE EVERYONE. (I had no problem with going for two in a meaningless bowl game either but if you're going to do it...roll your sub 4.4 speed qb out to the wide side of the field and give him 40 yards of field with the option to make someone miss or toss it into the endzone if someone drops out of coverage to stop him..especially when he's not a pocket passer at this point and our OL was struggling).

[Bill Robertson]

Yeah....hit that 2 point conversion and "We're on the right track going into next season. That Hawkins really showed some intestinal fortitude, and he might just push Mateer for the starting job next season!"

I wonder if there would be much less doom & gloom complaining if we had won a meaningless bowl game.
Also, if I remember right the O/U line was 7 1/2 wins before the season started. That was before the entire WR corp went missing. It wasn't like OU was supposed to be a titan and then horribly underachieved. But the nay sayers didn't pop up until we started having the predicted losses.

[BoulderSooner]

Yeah exactly...and how different is that result? Oh crap, we lost going for the win on one 3 yard attempt FIRE EVERYONE. (I had no problem with going for two in a meaningless bowl game either but if you're going to do it...roll your sub 4.4 speed qb out to the wide side of the field and give him 40 yards of field with the option to make someone miss or toss it into the endzone if someone drops out of coverage to stop him..especially when he's not a pocket passer at this point and our OL was struggling).

agree on both counts .. good thing that guy will no longer be our play caller .... (also the 2 fourth down play calls were terrible) ..

[PhiAlpha]

I wonder if there would be much less doom & gloom complaining if we had won a meaningless bowl game.
Also, if I remember right the O/U line was 7 1/2 wins before the season started. That was before the entire WR corp went missing. It wasn't like OU was supposed to be a titan and then horribly underachieved. But the nay sayers didn't pop up until we started having the predicted losses.

There would've been less doom and gloom but people would find something else to complain about.

"Our best portal WR is from the FCS!" Ignores that he's 6'3" and was 4th in the FCS in yards receiving and yards/game with 1,215 yards and 9 TDs and had a 2024 PFF grade that was 12 points higher than Branch (who everyone desperately wants) and 10 higher than Reggie Virgil who we lost to Tech

"We are getting outspent everywhere!" Ignores that we just outspent Miami and Bill freaking Belichick at UNC to get the consensus number 1 player in the portal and did the same to keep several of our defensive guys.

"We've been terrible under BV! We've gone 6-7 twice!!!" Unacceptable at OU but ignores that we were 10-3 last year and the defense has improved drastically every year.

"OUR PET'S HEADS ARE FALLING OFF!!!" - Likely

Again, it may not work out and we may be searching for a new HC in 11 months but things aren't as hopeless right now as some are acting like they are.

[Bill Robertson]

agree on both counts .. good thing that guy will no longer be our play caller .... (also the 2 fourth down play calls were terrible) ..

Yes they were. If you're going to go for forth down do something unexpected. Or don't do it at all.

[PhiAlpha]

agree on both counts .. good thing that guy will no longer be our play caller .... (also the 2 fourth down play calls were terrible) ..

Exactly...it's almost like replacing SL/JJF and adding to our QB/WR rooms might fix most of the offensive problems...which to his credit, JJF at least did improve.

The OL needs work too but another year for some of the young guys and a few portal additions will help...as will having a QB that gets rid of the ball quickly and can read coverage better than JA or Hawkins (thought he's made some noticeable strides after just three weeks under Arbuckle which is extremely encouraging).

Though even TBOW was guilty of some terrible 4th down play calls in bowl games... 4th and 1 in overtime in the Rose Bowl comes to mind.

[Bill Robertson]

There would've been less doom and gloom but the people would find something else to complain about.

"Our best portal WR is from the FCS!" Ignores that he's 6'3" and was 4th in the FCS in yards receiving and yards/game with 1,215 yards and 9 TDs and had a 2024 and had a PFF grade 12 points higher than Branch and 10 higher than Reggie Virgil who we lost to Tech

"We are getting outspent everywhere!" Ignores that we just outspent Miami and Bill freaking Belichick at UNC to get the consensus 1 player in the portal and did the same to keep several of our defensive guys.

"We've been terrible under BV! We've gone 6-7 twice!!!" Unacceptable at OU but ignores that we were 10-3 last year and the defense has improved drastically every year.

"OUR PETS HEADS ARE FALLING OFF!!!" - Likely

Again, it may not work out and we may be searching for a new HC 11 months but things aren't as hopeless right now as some are acting like they are.

Thank you!!!!
If. And that's if we have another losing season next year then I'll be completely on board with BV needs to go. By then we'll have SEC TV money to pay a new HC.
And yeah. I know we have donors that can pay the buyout and a higher salary to a new HC. If those big donors were as unhappy as some posters on here BV would already be gone. The time to fire BV would have been right after the last regular season game. He's here for another season so stop suggesting otherwise.

[Laramie]

[bamarsha]

If this bowl was so meaningless, I assume the LSU game was completely meaningless also? I mean, it didn't make a difference if we got to a bowl or not, thus getting those extra practices (which look like they did good for some players). Those who say games are meaningless have obviously never played sports. Gametime experience is priceless in college football, at least for the younger players (still great for the older players also).

[Bill Robertson]

If this bowl was so meaningless, I assume the LSU game was completely meaningless also? I mean, it didn't make a difference if we got to a bowl or not, thus getting those extra practices (which look like they did good for some players). Those who say games are meaningless have obviously never played sports. Gametime experience is priceless in college football, at least for the younger players (still great for the older players also).

To be exact. The outcome of the bowl game is meaningless. The extra practices and game experience are absolutely worthwhile. If people posted every possible aspect of every possible question posts would be unreasonably long.

[PhiAlpha]

If this bowl was so meaningless, I assume the LSU game was completely meaningless also? I mean, it didn't make a difference if we got to a bowl or not, thus getting those extra practices (which look like they did good for some players). Those who say games are meaningless have obviously never played sports. Gametime experience is priceless in college football, at least for the younger players (still great for the older players also).

Yes. In the scheme of things, any non-playoff bowl is meaningless to anyone other than the people playing in it. Especially with all the opt outs and transfers. Often not even the same team that played all season. They are glorified exhibition games that are only made meaningful by the extra practice and playing time for those who stay. I played sports and have been a season ticket holder for 20+ years.

[BoulderSooner]

To be exact. The outcome of the bowl game is meaningless. The extra practices and game experience are absolutely worthwhile. If people posted every possible aspect of every possible question posts would be unreasonably long.

this is correct

[bamarsha]

To be exact. The outcome of the bowl game is meaningless. The extra practices and game experience are absolutely worthwhile. If people posted every possible aspect of every possible question posts would be unreasonably long.

This is the first time the outcome only was mentioned as meaningless. For that matter, your earlier post stated " if we had won a meaningless bowl game", calling the bowl game itself (thus everything that came along with it) meaningless.

The other issue I have with essentially taking the "we forfeit the bowl game" approach (ok, this may be a little extreme, but), now those that recruit against us can say we have a losing record or we can't even get a winning record. While it doesn't matter as much as the bags (of money) these days, it still means something (athletes want to win).