Population Growth for OKC

[OKCRT]

Between 2010 and 2013 the metropolitan area grew by 2.6%

If the metro area grows at the same rate through the entire decade, that would put the CSA at 1,436,030 in 2020. To get anywhere near 1.7 or 1.8 million by 2020 would require Austin-level growth or even greater which isn't going to happen in the face of low oil prices (not considering other factors holding growth here back). If the metro grows as fast as it did from 2000-10, which actually saw better growth numbers than what the metro is currently seeing, that would still only put the CSA population at 1,512,858 in 2020.

See laramie's post above. At 50k per year OKC Metro would be around 1.7-1.8 by 2020. Maybe higher.

[Laramie]

Between 2010 and 2013 the metropolitan area grew by 2.6%

If the metro area grows at the same rate through the entire decade, that would put the CSA at 1,436,030 in 2020. To get anywhere near 1.7 or 1.8 million by 2020 would require Austin-level growth or even greater which isn't going to happen in the face of low oil prices (not considering other factors holding growth here back). If the metro grows as fast as it did from 2000-10, which actually saw better growth numbers than what the metro is currently seeing, that would still only put the CSA population at 1,512,858 in 2020.

Interesting! Where did you get the 2.6 % figure?

[bchris02]

Look at growth from 2010-2015. If we have the same rate of growth we should be there. I am talking CSA

Is Shawnee growing that fast?

The numbers I figured should put OKC at somewhere between 1.46 and 1.53 by 2020 and that is including Pottawatomie County.

[bchris02]

Interesting! Where did you get the 2.6 % figure.

Oklahoma City ranked 7th-fastest-growing metro area in country | Oklahoma City - OKC - KOCO.com

[OKCRT]

It's not just Shawnee. When we add Tulsa Seriously though if OKC metro grows by 50k a year we will be at those numbers.

[bchris02]

It's not just Shawnee. When we add Tulsa Seriously though if OKC metro grows by 50k a year we will be at those numbers.

True, at 50k per year. So far between 2010 and 2014, OKC has grown by about 20k per year. The city would have to double its current growth rate and then some to reach that. To do so, I think the city would need a combination of oil back in the $100-$120 range as well as a couple of major corporate relocations and a few quiet tornado seasons consecutively to top it off.

[KayneMo]

Look at growth from 2010-2015. If we have the same rate of growth we should be there. I am talking CSA

Even with Pottawatomie County and the growth from 2010-2014 (+86,149), the CSA would only be just above 1.53 million.

CSA population in 2010: 1,322,429
CSA population estimate in 2014: 1,408,578
Difference is 86,149. Divided by 4 is 21,537, then multiply by 10 is 215,373. Add that to the 2010 number and you get 1,537,802 (assuming current growth is unchanged).

[Architect2010]

I think OKC is growing at a really nice clip right now. Looking at rankings provided online by the Census Bureau, OKC's CITY growth, from 2010 - 2014 shows exactly at 7.00%. Within the decade, we will pass Baltimore, Detroit, and maybe even Memphis.

Austin's growth is crazy, 790,000 - 912,000 in 4 years... HOW is that city even keeping up with that sort of growth? Eeek.

[BG918]

Austin's growth is crazy, 790,000 - 912,000 in 4 years... HOW is that city even keeping up with that sort of growth? Eeek.

They aren't. It's a mess down there with horrible traffic and skyrocketing housing prices. You really don't want that type of growth especially in Oklahoma where you know the state won't keep up with the infrastructure needed for it (we barely maintain what we already have..)

[Spartan]

Even with Pottawatomie County and the growth from 2010-2014 (+86,149), the CSA would only be just above 1.53 million.

CSA population in 2010: 1,322,429
CSA population estimate in 2014: 1,408,578
Difference is 86,149. Divided by 4 is 21,537, then multiply by 10 is 215,373. Add that to the 2010 number and you get 1,537,802 (assuming current growth is unchanged).

You're projecting linear growth, not geometric growth.

[OKCRT]

.03% growth rate will get us to 1.7+ mil. CSA pop. by 2020

[Laramie]

I think OKC is growing at a really nice clip right now. Looking at rankings provided online by the Census Bureau, OKC's CITY growth, from 2010 - 2014 shows exactly at 7.00%. Within the decade, we will pass Baltimore, Detroit, and maybe even Memphis.

Austin's growth is crazy, 790,000 - 912,000 in 4 years... HOW is that city even keeping up with that sort of growth? Eeek.

Oklahoma City isn't ready for any population boom unless there are quality jobs to feed that growth. We've reach that point where there are 600,000 in the city & 1.3 million in the metro area; who knows what could feed or cause that growth to become stagnant.

OKC's annual population estimated gains are relatively moderate which means that we should be able to manage our current rate of growth as we approach 2020.

Boeing jobs that will supply TAFB site and the GE Global Research Center are among the big fish we have landed that will bring additional satellite jobs to the area.

What's happening to the Energy sector at this time will have an affect on OKC; it probably won't be as damaging to our local economy as the oil bust of the 80s.

[Spartan]

It looks like the price of oil is stabilizing.

[Bunty]

I agree with this.

I wish the legislature would quit with the anti-gay obsession. It may help them shore up a few votes but it re-enforces a perception issue that hurts Oklahoma economically at all levels. Unfortunately, you can't reason with people who think they are doing the work of God. I think when discussing Oklahoma City's growth prospects, its essential to discuss politics because the social conservatism does have an impact on people moving here, people staying here, and businesses willing to locate here. Other than tornadoes, its the number one thing people in other states cringe at when you mention Oklahoma.

At least one or two legislators are not like what you say. An example is Rep. Cory Williams. Earlier this year, he said Oklahoma’s politics were starting to affect economic development and that the legislature is not a great PR machine. How Oklahoma can find more legislators like Williams, whether Democrat or Republican, I don't know. Hopefully, there are more than just a few in the Oklahoma Legislature already there and trying their best while creating no nonsense of their own.

[Bunty]

City population estimates for 2014 are out from the Census.

Oklahoma City - 620,602 (+40,594 since 2010)
Norman - 118,040 (+7,115)
Edmond - 88,605 (+7,206)
Moore - 59,196 (+4,115)
Midwest City - 57,039 (+2,668)

2014 population estimates for all Oklahoma cities are here: https://www.census.gov/popest/data/c...EST2014-3.html

Stillwater added on more people than most cities did from 2013 to 2014 with 1,056 for a total of 48,406. Probably more OSU students, start up at ASCO Aerospace and energy largely accounted for it. If jobs were lost in the energy field, they can be made up from at least several hundred new jobs from Academy Sports and a couple of new hotels all soon to open.

[KayneMo]

You're projecting linear growth, not geometric growth.

True, but basing the metro's growth off of the past several years, it is much more linear rather than geometric.

[soonerguru]

I think OKC is growing at a really nice clip right now. Looking at rankings provided online by the Census Bureau, OKC's CITY growth, from 2010 - 2014 shows exactly at 7.00%. Within the decade, we will pass Baltimore, Detroit, and maybe even Memphis.

Austin's growth is crazy, 790,000 - 912,000 in 4 years... HOW is that city even keeping up with that sort of growth? Eeek.

It isn't. It's becoming ridiculously unaffordable with the worst traffic in Tejas.

[bchris02]

It isn't. It's becoming ridiculously unaffordable with the worst traffic in Tejas.

A city served by only a single Interstate was never meant to be as large as its become.

[Snowman]

A city served by only a single Interstate was never meant to be as large as its become.

It may only have one designated interstate but there are a few state roads built to interstate standards, one that is almost interstate standard that probably will be entirely in the not too distant future and a few classic highways.

[NWOKCGuy]

It may only have one designated interstate but there are a few state roads built to interstate standards, one that is almost interstate standard that probably will be entirely in the not too distant future and a few classic highways.

I'm from Austin and I'll tell you that the city was definitely built around I35. There may be several state highways built to interstate standards today but the TX DOT and the city waited too long to do it. You have to go out of your way to drive on any of them so everyone still takes 35.

[KayneMo]

I'm not sure if this calls for its own thread, but I want to post some population numbers of some of OKC's districts using Drawing - WSJ Census Map Maker which uses the 2010 Census.

Deep Deuce - 434 (pop density - 5,425/sq mi)
Midtown - 1,205 (2,410/sq mi)
Park Plaza - 364 (3,640/sq mi)
Heritage Hills - 1,034 (4,136/sq mi)
Mesta Park - 1,581 ( 5,856/sq mi)
Jefferson Park - 1,196 (6,644/sq mi)
Paseo - 838 (5,587/sq mi)
Central Park - 1,429 (5,954/sq mi)
Edgemere Park - 727 (4,276/sq mi)
Gatewood - 2,700 (6,000/sq mi)
Classen Ten Penn - 3,389 (7,531/sq mi)
Youngs-Englewood - 1,886 (7,544/sq mi)

I also found that the western half of Classen Ten Penn is among the densest areas of OKC at 8,850/sq mi.

I wonder how much these numbers have changed in the past 5 years and am anxious to see the difference in 5 years for the 2020 Census, especially for Deep Deuce and Midtown. Any guestimates for current numbers for DD and Midtown?

[Teo9969]

By 2020, I believe Deep Deuce is going to have 1000 *units*, which will probably mean at least 1500 people. 1500 would put Deep Deuce at a density of 18,752 residents/square mile.

I don't imagine the Inner-Northwest neighborhoods are going to be that different. Maybe a slight uptick, but major density increases are not happening in that area. Midtown will likely see the largest percentage increase.

[HOT ROD]

surprised at the low numbers for Deep Deuce. I thought it was easily the most densely populated area of the entire state.

[Snowman]

surprised at the low numbers for Deep Deuce. I thought it was easily the most densely populated area of the entire state.

It probably is at least close to it now; given that Level, Mosaic, the Maywood Appartments and at least half the houses were built after those 2010 census numbers came out.

[Teo9969]

surprised at the low numbers for Deep Deuce. I thought it was easily the most densely populated area of the entire state.

Those are 2010 numbers. Pre-Level, aLoft, Mosaic, some Hill homes, some Brownstone sales, Maywood. Units have more than doubled in the last 5 years, and I would bet Occupancy rates are up given the absolute inundation with new/better things to do downtown.