Oklahoma Weather Discussion - February/March 2013

[Anonymous.]

GFS and NAM are in pretty much decent agreement at this point. New 00Z GFS also keeps OKC all rain until after 3PM. It keeps some precip in the area, but nothing more than a couple inches of snow it appears. If this all verifies I see a good chunk of he warnings dropped to just advisories for blowing snow.

The amounts of liquid this storm wants to drop is unbelievable. Such a great chance at a major body of OK winter storm and we are going to get textbook dry slotted as it stands now. Total bummer.

[PennyQuilts]

Anonymous, you are depressing me.

[ou48A]

https://www.facebook.com/ATsFans

First off, my sincerest apologies to you folks that live near Woodward, and Tulsa but for two completely different reasons. No change to the original forecast only some minor adjustments. It appears that 20" of snowfall for NW OK near the Woodward area may have been too conservative. This updated model wants to see 40". So let's bump it up to 25" and call it good. What's another 5" of snow anyway. The reason is because the storm is slowing down even more giving this area a longer time under the heavier snow band. Also, due to the slightly slower movement, more dry air has a chance to work into the mid levels on the SE side of C OK and for E OK up to Tulsa. That means less snow totals say around Norman compared to Oklahoma City. Also, due to the dry slot, SE of Tulsa drops to just a couple of inches and NW side of Tulsa gets about 5". It really all depends on how much dry air gets entrained. Tough call but it looks like a hard line along I-44 for the heavy stuff. The good news is look at how much precipitation the model is producing, if this were all rain, we're looking at 2-5" in the hard hit drought areas of W/NW OK! That's great news! See prior forecast for all the other pertinent details!

[Mississippi Blues]

So, would it be smart to leave school early tomorrow?

[ou48A]

So, would it be smart to leave school early tomorrow?

IMO It depends on your location, your vehicle, your skill and comfort levels, and the nature of the terrain you must negotiate?

[Mississippi Blues]

IMO It depends on your location, your vehicle, your skill and comfort levels, and the nature of the terrain you must negotiate?

36th & Classen up to 122nd & May, 03 Ford Taurus, not very much skill but can drive in it as long as I can see and the roads aren't too slick. I'll just be in the inner city for the most part.

[ou48A]

36th & Classen up to 122nd & May, 03 Ford Taurus, not very much skill but can drive in it as long as I can see and the roads aren't too slick. I'll just be in the inner city for the most part.

I suppose the time would be the most critical factor but stayoff the interstates all cost when it starts getting slick.

[jn1780]

36th & Classen up to 122nd & May, 03 Ford Taurus, not very much skill but can drive in it as long as I can see and the roads aren't too slick. I'll just be in the inner city for the most part.

There isn't going to be any snow until midday tomorrow and even then it looks like it won't be that much because of the dry slot. City travel will probably be fine unless something changes......

[Bunty]

It looks like the first storm line is getting evaporated before it can make it to Stillwater, or Oklahoma City.

[Mississippi Blues]

I suppose the time would be the most critical factor but stayoff the interstates all cost when it starts getting slick.

Thanks for the advice ou48A, it's helpful.

[Bunty]

I suppose the time would be the most critical factor but stay off the interstates all cost when it starts getting slick.

Good advice, especially if it's a whiteout and it's dark. Then you're aggravated from having to slow down a lot and stressed out from not being able to know for sure if you're really staying on the highway or not. Been there and done it. Never want to again, even though I got home without running off the road.

[OKCisOK4me]

Seems to me that the local stations would hype a "dryslot" if it were questionable. Seems like a 100% chance on here, yet 4 5 or 9 said nothing about it...

[SoonerDave]

Seems to me that the local stations would hype a "dryslot" if it were questionable. Seems like a 100% chance on here, yet 4 5 or 9 said nothing about it...

There's no hype value in telling people nothings going to happen. Dry slots mean no big metro storm snow dump. Sounds like metro will be lucky to get much if any moisture out of this if the dry slot comes through. That would be the worst result...no moisture at all.

[ou48A]

The interstates can become clogged with horrible drivers in vehicles that don’t do well in snow.

While driving in a blinding snow storm north of Guymon I had to navigate by rolling my window down while catching glimpses of the high line wires. I was able to estimate the distance from the road to the wires. I drove about 15 miles like this. It took about an hour and a half. Thankfully the bar ditches were very forgiving and it had only snowed just a few inches.

Some side roads can offer the same advantage of driving by the wires.

[OKCisOK4me]

Don't get me wrong, it's fine by me, but the misinformation of our forecasters should be a no no when it comes to the game of cry wolf.

[Plutonic Panda]

Every weather source I go to seems to say that this will be a pretty big storm for OKC, so it will be interesting to see what happens.

[Achilleslastand]

Every weather source I go to seems to say that this will be a pretty big storm for OKC, so it will be interesting to see what happens.

Source?

[soonerguru]

Every weather source I go to seems to say that this will be a pretty big storm for OKC, so it will be interesting to see what happens.

This is setting up to be a major cluster. People are overly focused on snow accumulation totals. The bottom line is that we're going to start having near-blizzard conditions tomorrow afternoon. My wife drives to Norman to work. This makes me very nervous, as none of the metro schools have closed. This is setting up to be a dangerous situation, regardless of whether we get four or eight inches of snow.

It's the blowing snow and visibility problems people need to be concerned about.

[Plutonic Panda]

Source?

News9 is sticking with 4-8 and pretty bad winds. NewsOk seems to think (or say) this might be a pretty significant storm. Michael Armstrong is saying 6-8'' with much higher drifts by tuesday morning.

Breaking News, Local News and Weather - News9.com - Oklahoma City, OK - News, Weather, Video and Sports |

https://www.facebook.com/MichaelArmstrongWX

Major winter storm headed toward Oklahoma | News OK

Oklahoma weather: Winter storm updates | News OK

National Weather Service Forecast Office - Norman, Oklahoma

Blizzard warning to the county directly NW to OK County. . .
Was the storm that ended up being a bust on Christmas this hyped? The media is sure going to be under scrutiny if nothing ends up happening. :/

I don't know too much about reading advanced maps and forecasting models, though. So, I'm not trying to hype anything up. Just wanting to get a "second" opinion besides the media. lol

[Plutonic Panda]

This is setting up to be a major cluster. People are overly focused on snow accumulation totals. The bottom line is that we're going to start having near-blizzard conditions tomorrow afternoon. My wife drives to Norman to work. This makes me very nervous, as none of the metro schools have closed. This is setting up to be a dangerous situation, regardless of whether we get four or eight inches of snow.

It's the blowing snow and visibility problems people need to be concerned about.

Think they'll close last minute?

[John1744]

Remind me to send a fruit basket to all the weather forecasters, we had a darn near record breaking day of sales at the grocery store I work at.

[soonerguru]

News9 is sticking with 4-8 and pretty bad winds. NewsOk seems to think (or say) this might be a pretty significant storm. Michael Armstrong is saying 6-8'' with much higher drifts by tuesday morning.

Breaking News, Local News and Weather - News9.com - Oklahoma City, OK - News, Weather, Video and Sports |

https://www.facebook.com/MichaelArmstrongWX

Major winter storm headed toward Oklahoma | News OK

Oklahoma weather: Winter storm updates | News OK

National Weather Service Forecast Office - Norman, Oklahoma

Blizzard warning to the county directly NW to OK County. . .
Was the storm that ended up being a bust on Christmas this hyped? The media is sure going to be under scrutiny if nothing ends up happening. :/

I don't know too much about reading advanced maps and forecasting models, though. So, I'm not trying to hype anything up. Just wanting to get a "second" opinion besides the media. lol

It's not "the media," it's local forecasters trying to reconcile different models. It's an inexact science. There's nothing approaching hype here. A blizzard in a major metro area is a dangerous thing. It would be the height of irresponsibility for them not to get the public to pay attention. People should not let their guard down.

I'll never forget the footage of the thousands of people stranded in OKC in the blizzard of '09.

[venture]

News9 is sticking with 4-8 and pretty bad winds. NewsOk seems to think (or say) this might be a pretty significant storm. Michael Armstrong is saying 6-8'' with much higher drifts by tuesday morning.

Breaking News, Local News and Weather - News9.com - Oklahoma City, OK - News, Weather, Video and Sports |

https://www.facebook.com/MichaelArmstrongWX

Major winter storm headed toward Oklahoma | News OK

Oklahoma weather: Winter storm updates | News OK

National Weather Service Forecast Office - Norman, Oklahoma

Blizzard warning to the county directly NW to OK County. . .
Was the storm that ended up being a bust on Christmas this hyped? The media is sure going to be under scrutiny if nothing ends up happening. :/

I don't know too much about reading advanced maps and forecasting models, though. So, I'm not trying to hype anything up. Just wanting to get a "second" opinion besides the media. lol

One thing to point out is that the NWS has publicly stated that this is a high bust risk forecast. Sometimes as a forecaster you can become blind to signs that your forecast might bust. You get so defensive of it that you don't move away.

It's interesting to note that short term model RAP has the on going precip just west of I-35 forecast to be over far Western OK.

[Plutonic Panda]

One thing to point out is that the NWS has publicly stated that this is a high bust risk forecast. Sometimes as a forecaster you can become blind to signs that your forecast might bust. You get so defensive of it that you don't move away.

It's interesting to note that short term model RAP has the on going precip just west of I-35 forecast to be over far Western OK.

Me, as a snow lover, sometimes ignores the signs that a blizzard won't happen because I LOVE SNOW AND WANT A GOOD BLIZZARD EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE. lol

[ShiroiHikari]

I just want to know if I should cancel my piano lesson tomorrow evening or not...

Also if weather.com is accurate, the temperature here has gone up in the last few minutes, not down.