Population Growth for OKC

[HOT ROD]

And if OKC metro under its current definition is 1.3M in 2013, then I could totally see it growing more than 200K to eclipse 1.5M within the next 5 years. Heck, I bet it would be 1.6M in 2020 under the current definition; with it revised to what the MSA should be then it would be 1.7M.

[Laramie]

And if OKC metro under its current definition is 1.3M in 2013, then I could totally see it growing more than 200K to eclipse 1.5M within the next 5 years. Heck, I bet it would be 1.6M in 2020 under the current definition; with it revised to what the MSA should be then it would be 1.7M.

Population figures are difficult to predict. Oklahoma City is at the point where we will grow or become stagnant. City & State leadership will be the key.

Many U. S. cities that reach that 1.25 million metro plateau (e.g., Austin, Charlotte, Columbus, Indianapolis, Nashville) usually begin a period of accelerated growth as it expands its corporate & economic base followed by an influx of talented professionals. We need to keep our talented professionals here.

Among OKC's biggest challenges will be to supply the housing, developments & quality jobs growth that will keep pace with that demand.

Five key needs for improvement components mush be addressed: Higher Education, Public Transportation, Air travel access (flights to/from Oklahoma City), along with improved Infrastructure & Quality schools (K-12)--those will be our greatest obstacles.

Several key traits like the NBA, transit (public), growth employers (Devon, Chesapeake, Continental Resources, Sandridge, American Energy Partners, Enable Midstream Partners, Sonic, Tinker AFB), & the increased growth development investments in area districts like Asian, Bricktown, Boathouse, Central Business, Commerce Street, Farmers Market, Medical Centers (Integris Baptist centers, Mercy, OU Medical, St. Anthony), Paseo, Wheeler districts are positive signs.

All districts will need continuous aesthetic & cosmetic attention.

[bchris02]

And if OKC metro under its current definition is 1.3M in 2013, then I could totally see it growing more than 200K to eclipse 1.5M within the next 5 years. Heck, I bet it would be 1.6M in 2020 under the current definition; with it revised to what the MSA should be then it would be 1.7M.

I think getting to 1.5 million by 2020 is optimistic in the face of low oil prices and negative media attention. I would really like to see it happen but I don't see how it would be possible unless there is a huge uptick in population growth and right now there really isn't a catalyst for it. Getting to 1.7 million in 5 years would require adding 400,000 people, or a growth rate over almost 30%. What would drive growth to those levels? I think snagging a few corporate relocations from California would help but OKC seems to have trouble competing with Dallas and Austin for those.

[gopokes88]

Population figures are difficult to predict. Oklahoma City is at the point where we will grow or become stagnant. City & State leadership will be the key.

Many U. S. cities that reach that 1.25 million metro plateau (e.g., Austin, Charlotte, Columbus, Indianapolis, Nashville) usually begin a period of accelerated growth as it expands its corporate & economic base followed by an influx of talented professionals. We need to keep our talented professionals here.

Among OKC's biggest challenges will be to supply the housing, developments & quality jobs growth that will keep pace with that demand.

Five key needs for improvement components mush be addressed: Higher Education, Public Transportation, Air travel access (flights to/from Oklahoma City), along with improved Infrastructure & Quality schools (K-12)--those will be our greatest obstacles.

Several key traits like the NBA, transit (public), growth employers (Devon, Chesapeake, Continental Resources, Sandridge, American Energy Partners, Enable Midstream Partners, Sonic, Tinker AFB), & the increased growth development investments in area districts like Asian, Bricktown, Boathouse, Central Business, Commerce Street, Farmers Market, Medical Centers (Integris Baptist centers, Mercy, OU Medical, St. Anthony), Paseo, Wheeler districts are positive signs.

All districts will need continuous aesthetic & cosmetic attention.

The price of oil is 10X more important then city leadership or any of those things. The higher oil is in 16 17 18 and 19 the bigger the boom. Those are nice but they don't drive growth, oil drives growth, they help with retention in the down years.

[Laramie]

Beautifications, beautification, beautification... ...we need to clean & keep our city clean.

What visitors see in our city often becomes their first & last impression. We want to impact all of their senses.

Oklahoma City is home to NBA (Thunder), PCL (Dodgers), USL (Energy), quality museums and annual events like Red Earth, Big 12 tournaments (baseball, wrestling etc.,) and the Women's College World Series (WCWS); these events help showcase our city in a different light. The loss of the NFR which our city built will continue to be a grim reminder that facilities to host events are important. Much like advertising & marketing; these events become our brand as well as the importance of the upkeep of our city.

OKC needs to take advantage of its central location; where a piece like a convention center complex can cater to an event like the recent Southern Republican Leadership Conference. You can build your city's convention portfolio through hospitality for which OKC is quite reputable.

OKC's population will boom if we have something to offer. Build our base through firms that provide quality jobs through growth & development; these are key investments to secure our future.

[bchris02]

The price of oil is 10X more important then city leadership or any of those things. The higher oil is in 16 17 18 and 19 the bigger the boom. Those are nice but they don't drive growth, oil drives growth, they help with retention in the down years.

Definitely agree with this. I wouldn't say oil is as important as high-paying jobs. In OKC, most of that kind of growth comes from the energy sector. Improving quality of life is a bonus and really helps keep people in OKC when they otherwise might have the opportunity to move somewhere else. Unfortunately, OKC isn't blessed with the geographical advantages of an Austin or a Portland. Because of that, its unlikely it will ever boom on its own merit. However, an economy-driven boom is definitely possible.

[Laramie]

The price of oil is 10X more important then city leadership or any of those things. The higher oil is in 16 17 18 and 19 the bigger the boom. Those are nice but they don't drive growth, oil drives growth, they help with retention in the down years.

Your city & state leadership's decision-making can have an impact on where companies locate or relocate for that matter. MAPS was influential on Devon remaining in OKC or possibly relocating to Houston.

Let's not overemphasize the importance of oil as it relates to the overall scheme. A simplified base which becomes dependent on oil is risky.

We don't want to repeat what happened with the oil bust decades ago. Oklahoma City's economy is more diverse than the price of oil. We learned from that episode of the 80s. Developments like the Keystone Pipeline would oversaturate the market and continue to add to the oil woes.

Oklahoma City needs to continue to diversify its corporate & business base where one sector doesn't adversely affect the whole economy.

[gopokes88]

Let's not overemphasize the importance of oil as it relates to the overall scheme. A simplified base which becomes dependent on oil is risky.

We don't want to repeat what happened with the oil bust decades ago. Oklahoma City's economy is more diverse than the price of oil. We learned from that episode of the 80s. Developments like the Keystone Pipeline would oversaturate the market and continue to add to the oil woes.

Oklahoma City needs to continue to diversify its corporate & business base where one sector doesn't adversely affect the whole economy.

It's really really really easy to run around and preach diversification. It's very very very hard to achieve and sometimes comes through just sheer luck.

We're more diverse now then the 80s and we'll be more diverse in 2040. It's a very slow difficult. A lot of the workforce and talent here has experience in the oil industry. It's no different then being a tech firm and location in Silicon Valley. Thats where a huge chunk of the talent for tech is.

All those things you listed are nice but to not even acknowledge that oil prices are basically the gasoline in the car (see what I did there?) is ignorant of how our economy works. The city can build an awesome car, but without gasoline to fuel it, it's going no where. The higher the price of oil, the more gasoline we have.

[hoya]

The only thing the city can really do is work to improve the quality of life here. The city can try to create a more business friendly environment, but that doesn't assure anything. You can give incentives for companies to move here, you can host conventions, but if out of state people visit OKC and they don't like what they see, they won't come back. We need to invest in our core and make the city a beautiful, fun, and exciting place to live.

[TU 'cane]

The one thing that we can't predict but we can try to shape is potential industry.

Jobs. Jobs are what make people stay or leave, move here or move there.
As stated previously, it's easy to preach economic diversity, it's another to achieve it. It's hard to do.
Not to derail into politics, as this will be my only mention of it, but Steve had mentioned a while back on one of his chats that he received word of a national brand that was looking to move their HQ to OKC but decided against it when some of our bills made national news, etc. particularly aimed against same sex relationships. Just something to think about...

Honestly, OKC just needs to keep doing what it's doing now. Stay consistent and stay level headed in regard to what's planned. Don't bite off more than you can chew. Patience will always win out. And as hoya just said above, improve quality of life. Keep on track with the light rail plans (pun intended), and continue to make OKC pedestrian friendly. If you notice, the cities growing exponentially are the ones with booming millennial populations, of which comes a taste for outdoor activity, biking walking, etc.

[bchris02]

Jobs. Jobs are what make people stay or leave, move here or move there.
As stated previously, it's easy to preach economic diversity, it's another to achieve it. It's hard to do.
Not to derail into politics, as this will be my only mention of it, but Steve had mentioned a while back on one of his chats that he received word of a national brand that was looking to move their HQ to OKC but decided against it when some of our bills made national news, etc. particularly aimed against same sex relationships. Just something to think about...

I agree with this.

I wish the legislature would quit with the anti-gay obsession. It may help them shore up a few votes but it re-enforces a perception issue that hurts Oklahoma economically at all levels. Unfortunately, you can't reason with people who think they are doing the work of God. I think when discussing Oklahoma City's growth prospects, its essential to discuss politics because the social conservatism does have an impact on people moving here, people staying here, and businesses willing to locate here. Other than tornadoes, its the number one thing people in other states cringe at when you mention Oklahoma.

This is just among my circle, but I know a lot of younger people who a year ago were OKC cheerleaders that moved away after this last legislative session. Those are people whom would have contributed to the success and vibrancy of this community had they have stayed. Things like this do have an effect.

[hoya]

You can be socially conservative and still have people move here. But being crazy tends to keep them away. Anybody who would even consider moving to Oklahoma (or Texas, or most places in the South) is going to be okay with living in a socially conservative place. If they weren't, they wouldn't even think about it. And remember that half the country is relatively conservative. But outspoken people like Sally Kern, who make national news and come across as very hateful people, do our city and state a real disservice. I don't think they are very representative of the people of Oklahoma. The great majority of the people here, while very religious and conservative, do not wish harm upon gay people or think that they are worse than terrorists. But Sally Kern makes people think the whole state is that way.

I don't want this to stray into politics, so I'll try to get it back on topic. As gay marriage becomes less of a political issue (which will probably happen after the next Presidential election, presuming the Supreme Court makes it legal throughout the country this summer, we'll probably see the last fights about it over the next year or two), this is something that will hopefully start to fade in Oklahoma. We can't get back the business Steve was talking about that considered moving here, but there'll be other businesses in the future who find themselves in a similar position, and if gay marriage isn't as big a political issue at that point, we'll be in a much better position to get those companies.

[TU 'cane]

Believe it or not, but I had heard back around 2008-2012 that many people were looking to move to Oklahoma due to our stances on some issues that leaned right of center... I'm not sure how many, but this was all via word of mouth within and without some of my own social circles. The way I recall it was it was a sizable number of people interested in getting out of the NE, NW, etc. looking for more "conservative" places to live. So, it's definitely something that goes both ways, I guess. And we shouldn't necessarily demonize one side when examined from 30,000 feet.

My best advice is keep the crazy on the low and find healthy balance that can benefit the population of OK.

[Spartan]

Believe it or not, but I had heard back around 2008-2012 that many people were looking to move to Oklahoma due to our stances on some issues that leaned right of center... I'm not sure how many, but this was all via word of mouth within and without some of my own social circles. The way I recall it was it was a sizable number of people interested in getting out of the NE, NW, etc. looking for more "conservative" places to live. So, it's definitely something that goes both ways, I guess. And we shouldn't necessarily demonize one side when examined from 30,000 feet.

My best advice is keep the crazy on the low and find healthy balance that can benefit the population of OK.

This is not something that "goes both ways." Sorry...

[HOT ROD]

I think getting to 1.5 million by 2020 is optimistic in the face of low oil prices and negative media attention. I would really like to see it happen but I don't see how it would be possible unless there is a huge uptick in population growth and right now there really isn't a catalyst for it. Getting to 1.7 million in 5 years would require adding 400,000 people, or a growth rate over almost 30%. What would drive growth to those levels? I think snagging a few corporate relocations from California would help but OKC seems to have trouble competing with Dallas and Austin for those.

7-years away. The 1.335M MSA figure was from 2013. Roughly 56K per year would do it.

[Laramie]

In 2014, Oklahoma City metro is home to 1.41 million residents, up from 1.25 million in 2010.

...Oklahoma City is one of the most diverse cities in the state, and its Hispanic population has grown dramatically over the years. The Hispanic population of Oklahoma City grew 85% from 2000 to 2010, with a proportion increasing from 5.2% to 8.9% in that same time period.

Oklahoma City Population 2015 - World Population Review Released 10-19-2014

2014's estimate of 1.41 million looks encouraging according to the above link; an estimate gain approximately 75,000 from 2013 - 2014.

1,410,000
1,334,000
(+) 76,000

We could easily reach 1.6 million by 2020 if we maintain our current rate of growth; 2015's estimate should give us a good gauge as to how the numbers play out as we approach 2017. Wouldn't be surprised to see an estimated low of 1.7 or high of 2 million range by 2020.

[KayneMo]

^ Where does that 2014 number come from? The Census estimate has the metro at 1.34 million for 2014, a gain of about 84,000 since 2010. At that rate (about 21,000 per year), the metro would be at 1.46 million in 2020 (2015 would be approximately 1.36 million), which is how I got that number in my previous post. I would be surprised to hit 1.5 million in 2020, much less 1.7 million or nearly 2 million.

[Teo9969]

^CSA number not MSA.

[OKCRT]

Today the metro pop is close enough to 1.5 mil. to call it 1.5 mil. By 2020 OKC metro pop should be somewhere around 1.75-1.8 mil. This includes micros like Shawnee. Also,there are thousands of hispanic residents that are not accounted for.

[bchris02]

Today the metro pop is close enough to 1.5 mil. to call it 1.5 mil. By 2020 OKC metro pop should be somewhere around 1.75-1.8 mil. This includes micros like Shawnee. Also,there are thousands of hispanic residents that are not accounted for.

Between 2010 and 2013 the metropolitan area grew by 2.6%

If the metro area grows at the same rate through the entire decade, that would put the CSA at 1,436,030 in 2020. To get anywhere near 1.7 or 1.8 million by 2020 would require Austin-level growth or even greater which isn't going to happen in the face of low oil prices (not considering other factors holding growth here back). If the metro grows as fast as it did from 2000-10, which actually saw better growth numbers than what the metro is currently seeing, that would still only put the CSA population at 1,512,858 in 2020.

[SOONER8693]

I agree with this.

I wish the legislature would quit with the anti-gay obsession. It may help them shore up a few votes but it re-enforces a perception issue that hurts Oklahoma economically at all levels. Unfortunately, you can't reason with people who think they are doing the work of God. I think when discussing Oklahoma City's growth prospects, its essential to discuss politics because the social conservatism does have an impact on people moving here, people staying here, and businesses willing to locate here. Other than tornadoes, its the number one thing people in other states cringe at when you mention Oklahoma.

This is just among my circle, but I know a lot of younger people who a year ago were OKC cheerleaders that moved away after this last legislative session. Those are people whom would have contributed to the success and vibrancy of this community had they have stayed. Things like this do have an effect.

I find it hard to believe that "a lot" of people moved away because of a legislative session. If someone is that unstable about a place because of something like that, then they are likely to be moving again soon. When you say "a lot", exactly how many is "a lot"? I hope you can be honest with your response. I say that because as long as I've been following this board, almost all of your posts are anti OKC or veiled to try to cover that bias.

[bchris02]

I find it hard to believe that "a lot" of people moved away because of a legislative session. If someone is that unstable about a place because of something like that, then they are likely to be moving again soon. When you say "a lot", exactly how many is "a lot"? I hope you can be honest with your response. I say that because as long as I've been following this board, almost all of your posts are anti OKC or veiled to try to cover that bias.

"A lot" is within my own circle of friends and acquaintances. I know nobody who moved specifically because of the legislature but I've known a few who have stated it was a factor. It's probably a bigger factor for people currently living elsewhere who are considering accepting a job here, especially if they happen to be LGBT or non-conservative Christian.

[KayneMo]

Today the metro pop is close enough to 1.5 mil. to call it 1.5 mil. By 2020 OKC metro pop should be somewhere around 1.75-1.8 mil. This includes micros like Shawnee. Also,there are thousands of hispanic residents that are not accounted for.

What sort of metrics are you using to calculate the metro's population that it should be above 1.7 million by 2020?

[dankrutka]

I find it hard to believe that "a lot" of people moved away because of a legislative session. If someone is that unstable about a place because of something like that, then they are likely to be moving again soon. When you say "a lot", exactly how many is "a lot"? I hope you can be honest with your response. I say that because as long as I've been following this board, almost all of your posts are anti OKC or veiled to try to cover that bias.

It's also important to point out that (a) this is nothing new. Anyone living in Oklahoma is either aware of the state's politicians or naive. And (b) this is not in any way a problem exclusive to Oklahoma. This is another case of Oklahomans just being more familiar with the craziness of their state legislators. I would argue that Kansas' politicians who have basically bankrupted the state by basing policy on the unproven Laffer Curve. Texas' legislature passed an anti-marriage equality resolution and is close to legalizing concealed carry on college campuses against the wishes of police forces and pretty much every university. There is no shortage of examples. "Crazy" legislation is being passed in most states in this country. So, this is neither new or exclusive to Oklahoma. I doubt it's a more significant factor than it was in the past or than it is in other conservative states. Maybe it's worse in Oklahoma, but I'd have to some research before jumping to that conclusion.

[OKCRT]

What sort of metrics are you using to calculate the metro's population that it should be above 1.7 million by 2020?

Look at growth from 2010-2015. If we have the same rate of growth we should be there. I am talking CSA