Ed Shadid Launches Formal Attack on MAPS 3 Conv Center in tandem with Mayoral Bid

[betts]

My point was that some people manipulate data for money, some for adulation, some for press. Different things drive different people. You cannot make the determination that $50k means more. We have children dying every day in the US because a researcher faked data about a connection between autism and immunizations. What was his reward? A published paper and press clippings.

[mkjeeves]

Having two family members in high level academia, I have a different viewpoint. Not everyone who gets a fee, a meal or a line on their CV is a whore and lying to you. Sometimes people do good work. Heywood Sanders biggest point was to suspect the consultants and get your head in the game.

How's that different than what you are saying when you aren't fallaciously attacking the source? Are you and he both fear mongers too?

Yes, you've told me what you do.

[betts]

Of course not everyone does, that's why I used the word "some". Some people do research for fun, some for the intellectual challenge, some to help mankind, to some it's just their job. But many of them on the rubber chicken circuit do it for money or adulation.

Heywood Sanders is saying more than just to get your head in the game, although I think that is a useful take away message. And he does shove data under the rug that doesn't suit him, just as our hotel consultant does. As I've said, likely the truth is somewhere in between.

[Steve]

How's that working out for you? Where is the Oklahoman on reporting on the Town Hall?

Bill is still working on it.

[Spartan]

Isn't that what we're all saying? Or, I'm not even saying I necessarily support a CC hotel, but am interested in discussing its feasibility and funding options. I think there's some dissembling on one side of the argument and some drama and hysteria on the other side (I am not referring to you here Spartan). As usual, the truth is likely somewhere in between and I think we can likely get at the truth. But I also dont think it's fair to assume our council members won't be interested in the same information.

Well for one I don't think our council reads anything before they just vote (y'know, gut will never lead ya wrong)

[jerrywall]

I for one just can't get over the fact that a candidate thinks that calling the majority of voters on an issue "uninformed idiots" is somehow a strategic and valuable plan. Of course, seeing what he's doing on the chicken issues (trying to force that into a vote) pretty much exposes his hypocrisy and lies. It's all about motivating a certain base to come out and vote for him. He'll go down in local history with folks like the Taco Bell guy. What a joke.

[kevinpate]

Hey now. Not sure Hunt deserved that slap.

[Spartan]

Having two family members in high level academia, I have a different viewpoint. Not everyone who gets a fee, a meal or a line on their CV is a whore and lying to you. Sometimes people do good work. Heywood Sanders biggest point was to suspect the consultants and get your head in the game.

How's that different than what you are saying when you aren't fallaciously attacking the source? Are you and he both fear mongers too?

Yes, you've told me what you do.

I am also confused over the hatred of Haywood Sanders in this thread. He is undoubtedly the national expert on this issue. What is exactly has he done wrong?

[mkjeeves]

I am also confused over the hatred of Haywood Sanders in this thread. He is undoubtedly the national expert on this issue. What is exactly has he done wrong?

My assessment of Heywood Sanders is a lot like and perhaps biased by those of the people in academia I know (and love) who study, teach, do research, write books and papers, and make public appearances. He's in academia because he has a passion for developing tools and knowledge to better understand the world AND for sharing all of that with others. The macro view of his presentation IMO was to give people an entry point into the data and some context, AND empower people to take it from there.

Yep, that's a very scary thing if you want to sit on the council and when/if things blow up, blame it on the consultants. And it's a very scary thing for some people if the public uses those tools and empowerment to decide the whole project is on rails to be a boondoggle. I understand that.

I tend to think OKC residents are smart people who want to improve their city and they (we) will continue to work in the direction of improving it, whatever it may be. Discourse all along the way is a good thing for our city.

I also think we need to replace the Cox center with something that makes sense.

[betts]

I am also confused over the hatred of Haywood Sanders in this thread. He is undoubtedly the national expert on this issue. What is exactly has he done wrong?

I think the internet is playing tricks because I've never said I hate Haywood Sanders. My question is: While we acknowledge he is the national expert, is he really? The only hard evidence we have of his academic career is some papers he wrote, the last one of which was written in 2005. Since then, all I could find were periodicals acknowledging him as the expert. I read his last papers on convention centers and convention center hotels. If you look back a few pages, you can find a very brief evaluation of his article on CC hotels. It was allright, but there are some big holes. His CC paper, as I said before, was basically sociology with some economics thrown in. Neither was a comprehensive economic evaluation. Both contained sweeping generalizations. Last night I watched his presentation to the High Noon Club. It was pretty much the same as his papers. I don't want to write a tome here, but basically, he showed a graph that demonstrated rising convention space relative to demand. I need to go back and look at the units on the graph because as we all know, make the units small enough and your graph looks a lot more impressive. The graph came from CEIR, and I tried to look at it on their website, but you have to be a member to look at most of their data. I'm going to see what it costs to join or even if I can, because I think that might be good information. He spent a fair amount of time demonstrating that Oklahoma City is at the bottom of places people want to go to for a convention. OK. Probably true. Is there a possibility that that could change as downtown OKC improves? No discussion of what has happened in OKC over the past 20 years and how that could conceivably impact our desirability as a destination. He looked at hotel data. Never did he state what kind of occupancy a hotel needs to make a profit. He threw out the fact that he can find hotel rooms in convention center hotels on priceline for $50-$60. I discussed the fallacy in that statement a few pages ago too. BDP talked about why his Las Vegas data was skewed a few pages ago too. All buried by silly arguments here. He talked about cities owning hotels and how dangerous that could be, but again, gave no specific data. He never compared convention centers built with bonds versus convention centers paid for during construction and how that might impact economic data. I'd just like to know more. I'm not saying he's wrong, just that he never really proves he's right to my satisfaction.

No hate at all. I don't hate the convention center and convention center hotel "experts" either. I question their data and think they exaggerate. I'm just saying that I can't find concrete evidence that Sanders is not doing the same. So, I ask you to read his two papers and watch the video of his presentation with an open mind and maybe we can discuss it. No one here wants to read a detailed analysis of the articles, I'm sure. But, it was an interesting experience. Too often, I think we (and the City Council) accept data because it came from an "expert". My point is that experts are prone to bias, just like all of us, and it's a mistake to blindly accept their data, no matter which side of the argument they're on.

[Tier2City]

So, I ask you to read his two papers and watch the video of his presentation with an open mind and maybe we can discuss it.

Sorry if I missed it. Do you have links to those two papers? Thanks.

[mkjeeves]

The only hard evidence we have of his academic career is some papers he wrote, the last one of which was written in 2005.

Here's his CV dated 2009 from the link at University of Texas where presumably he teaches. I found one paper listed on the CV online by searching for it. Later pages in the CV list more recent professional papers up to 2008. Do not know if that means they aren't generally available or not, I didn't look for them. So is the title of his upcoming book.

It's a PDF


http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...60157871,d.aWc

[soonerguru]

I am also confused over the hatred of Haywood Sanders in this thread. He is undoubtedly the national expert on this issue. What is exactly has he done wrong?

FACEPALM. "Hatred?" "Undoubtedly the national expert..." WTF?

[Edgar]

I for one just can't get over the fact that a candidate thinks that calling the majority of voters on an issue "uninformed idiots" is somehow a strategic and valuable plan. Of course, seeing what he's doing on the chicken issues (trying to force that into a vote) pretty much exposes his hypocrisy and lies. It's all about motivating a certain base to come out and vote for him. He'll go down in local history with folks like the Taco Bell guy. What a joke.

idiot seems a bit harsh, but uninformed voters is just what the chamber junta had in mind by keeping the fabled CS&L report under lock and key. An outfit that received $5.3 million in taxpayer money last year and wants citizens to build them a new toy won't let voters have a look. Seems fair.

[Edgar]

Of course not everyone does, that's why I used the word "some". Some people do research for fun, some for the intellectual challenge, some to help mankind, to some it's just their job. But many of them on the rubber chicken circuit do it for money or adulation.

Heywood Sanders is saying more than just to get your head in the game, although I think that is a useful take away message. And he does shove data under the rug that doesn't suit him, just as our hotel consultant does. As I've said, likely the truth is somewhere in between.

Perhaps it's his crusade. Before Houdini's mother passed he promised to try and contact her from the afterlife. He quickly realized mediums are shisters preying on desperate people and went on a crusade exposing their trick effects, kind of like HS is doing with the CS&L hucksters. Bet their report to the OKC chamber didn't include the poll conducted for Milwakee that had OKC near dead last as a convention destination, just edging out Detroit.

[bradh]

$5.3M? The annual contract with the Chamber is $900K for promoting OKC and recruiting new businesses (which the CC will help in that effort, obviously). Where did the $5.3M figure come from?

out of the sky, like the rest of Ed's campaign figures

[Edgar]

You'd take Steve Hunt's word right? He gets Couch all tongue tied over the issue a few minutes in.
MAPS 3 City Council Meeting November 17, 2009 - www.okcissues.com - YouTube

[BDP]

I am also confused over the hatred of Haywood Sanders in this thread. He is undoubtedly the national expert on this issue. What is exactly has he done wrong?

Honestly, I have no idea who the guy is and my first exposure to him was watching the video posted in the thread, but for an "expert" he brought very little real data of his own to the table and openly misrepresented it. He really just questioned someone else's data and, again, his command of the Las Vegas convention situation seemed lacking and without nuance. His whole approach seems like it is about isolating a single variable fro convenience instead of placing it within the many variables applicable to this market.

[betts]

“Promises and Performance of Headquarters Hotels,” Economic Development Journal, volume 4 no. 1, Winter 2005, pp. 33-43.
“Convention Myths and Markets: A Critical Review of Convention Center Feasibility Studies,” Economic Development Quarterly, volume 16 no. 3, August 2002, pp. 195 to 210.

These are the two I read. They were the most current articles listed in all of the academic search engines I used that were considered scholarly and not labeled as "periodical".

[BDP]

“Promises and Performance of Headquarters Hotels,” Economic Development Journal, volume 4 no. 1, Winter 2005, pp. 33-43.
“Convention Myths and Markets: A Critical Review of Convention Center Feasibility Studies,” Economic Development Quarterly, volume 16 no. 3, August 2002, pp. 195 to 210.

These are the two I read. They were the most current articles listed in all of the academic search engines I used that were considered scholarly and not labeled as "periodical".

I haven't read those, but it is clear that he has a well known unfavorable opinion of the feasibility and potential benefits of convention infrastructure. That's fine and I think it's always good to hear from many perspectives. But it seems to me, and maybe I'm just being skeptical, that he was asked to speak, not because of some in depth knowledge of Oklahoma City's convention business and facility needs, but specifically because of his published opinion that investment in convention infrastructure is unwise. It's obvious to me that it was his task, either assigned to him or self imposed, to apply his opinion to Oklahoma City's situation, not to objectively analyze the city's needs.

I would like to know if he thinks it's at all even currently possible for a city to need some new convention space.

[jerrywall]

Steve Hunt evidently.

[betts]

You'd take Steve Hunt's word right? He gets Couch all tongue tied over the issue a few minutes in.
MAPS 3 City Council Meeting November 17, 2009 - www.okcissues.com - YouTube

Steve Hunt evidently.

Yup, he's never been able to resist promoting videos of himself. Although I actually think multiple people are using the Edgar screen name. Or, we've got our own forum Sibyl.

[warreng88]

Ed Shadid posted this to twitter just before attending the State of the City speech (he was there, I saw him leaving): @EdShadid: Despite the cold, convention center & cc hotel petition signature gatherers have passed the 4,000 signature mark on day 13 of 90. 2K to go

[catch22]

He may get 6000 signatures but I don't see him convincing a majority of the city to vote it down.

[warreng88]

He may get 6000 signatures but I don't see him convincing a majority of the city to vote it down.

Let's just hope all the "uninformed idiots" (as ES likes to call them) show up in droves.