General Weather Discussion - April 2014

[venture]

SVR T-storm watch coming...





URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 88
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WEST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ABILENE
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87...

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
FROM THE W CNTRL TX/THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS NNEWD INTO SW KS...INVOF
DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH AND BENEATH SRN END OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE LIFTING
NNE INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS. AMPLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY APPEAR PRESENT
FOR SUPERCELLS /INCLUDING STORM SPLITS/ WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WIND.
SOME RISK ALSO MAY DEVELOP FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER NW
TX...SE PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...AND SW OK THIS EVE...WHERE
LLJ WILL DIURNALLY STRENGTHEN AND LOW-LVL MOISTENING WILL PERSIST.
SUCH A THREAT WOULD BE GREATEST IF STORM MODE REMAINS
QUASI-DISCRETE...AND MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE OF PARTS OF THE WATCH TO
TORNADO LATER THIS EVE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.

[venture]

Snapshot of the storms starting to go up.

[venture]

Watch until 11PM for the following counties...

OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
BLAINE CADDO COMANCHE
COTTON CUSTER DEWEY
ELLIS GREER HARMON
HARPER JACKSON KIOWA
MAJOR ROGER MILLS TILLMAN
WA****A WOODS WOODWARD

[Plutonic Panda]

Just curios.. what does this mean

AROUND 995 MB

and how does that affect the storm? Also, I'm sure it's been mentioned before, but what do you do for living? I thought at one time you were a pilot, but I wasn't sure.

[venture]

Just curios.. what does this mean and how does that affect the storm? Also, I'm sure it's been mentioned before, but what do you do for living? I thought at one time you were a pilot, but I wasn't sure.

That's the pressure of the low pressure system. Like most people see barometers measuring pressure in inches of mercury, millibars is just another way to measure.

Not a pilot. I do work in the industry though. I also do PC building/reselling on the side.

[venture]

Severe storm with monster hail will be near Erick in 45 min and Sayre in about an hour.

[venture]

Serious storm getting ready to cross the OK border moving towards Erick.

[LocoAko]

This morning's GFS had the threat from central OK N & W on Saturday but Sunday the threat looked well east of here, while the Euro slowed way down and had what appeared to be limited forcing Saturday and a washout/squall line possible Sunday. Was hoping to see more consistency by this time (I should know better... lol).

[ou48A]

I'm hearing that Sunday's risk now looks like it could be very significant too.

[venture]

I'm hearing that Sunday's risk now looks like it could be very significant too.

Models are all over the place, so nothing is set by any means for this weekend. Euro is the model to follow but it has gotten a little wonky the last couple of runs. Hoping it gets back to being consistent on the run tonight.

[ou48A]

Mike Morgan OKC CH 4 indicates:
A moderate risk for the OKC metro on Sunday that includes the possibility of strong tornadoes.

[venture]

#OUN issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Beckham, Greer, Harmon [OK] till 6:00 PM CDT

[venture]

[LocoAko]

Of course as I write that, the 18Z GFS comes in looking as nasty as ever for Saturday evening.

[bchris02]

The NWS map still shows OKC at the very western edge of the severe zone for Sunday. On Saturday its showing western Oklahoma as the focal point but the metro is well within the severe zone.

[GoOKC1991]

Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser
5 hours ago
I would not be surprised if this Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will be the most significant multi-day tornado outbreak in the U.S. since 2011. Saturday and Sunday will be focused from KS/NE south to TX, and a large part of the central/Lower MS River Valley eastward on Monday. Stay tuned, as this could be a very dangerous storm system for most of the southern U.S. east of the Rockies.

[CuatrodeMayo]

The NWS map still shows OKC at the very western edge of the severe zone for Sunday. On Saturday its showing western Oklahoma as the focal point but the metro is well within the severe zone.

You'd better make your peace with God, son.

[Anonymous.]

Nice little supercell now moving into SW OK, but looks like additional development south of it may interrupt play.

[bchris02]

Mike Morgan OKC CH 4 indicates:
A moderate risk for the OKC metro on Sunday that includes the possibility of strong tornadoes.

I saw that, but Channel 9 is showing a very low chance on Sunday. From the forecasts I have seen, the OKC area may possibly be spared from the worst of this unless Mike Morgan's forecast for Sunday turns out to be accurate and the dry line sets up out west of El Reno. Correct me if I am wrong.

[bchris02]

You'd better make your peace with God, son.

No need for insults.

[venture]

Hopefully we get a better idea tonight after midnight when the Euro runs again. Any forecasts out there right now have probably 5% of confidence right now just because things aren't settled or uniform among the models.

Back to tonight, the cell Anon talked about is ingesting some crapvection that popped to the south of it, so its pretty well disrupted for now. More coming in from Childress and also from down around Crowell.

[Dessert Fox]

Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser
5 hours ago
I would not be surprised if this Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will be the most significant multi-day tornado outbreak in the U.S. since 2011. Saturday and Sunday will be focused from KS/NE south to TX, and a large part of the central/Lower MS River Valley eastward on Monday. Stay tuned, as this could be a very dangerous storm system for most of the southern U.S. east of the Rockies.

And fire will rain from the skies.

[catch22]

Venture, do these move into the metro tonight severe?

Debating whether to park in a parking garage or not.

[venture]

Venture, do these move into the metro tonight severe?

Debating whether to park in a parking garage or not.

There is a chance they will still have hail. If it were me, I would be the chicken parking in the garage.

[venture]

A lot of garbage around this storm in SW OK, but could be some pretty tough winds or a quick spin up with it...