Lennar Homes coming to OKC

[Richard at Remax]

We actually just looked at OKC metro inventory this week and compared y/y back to 2017. Inventory in OKC is less than it was at this time last year and actually every year we looked back to. I would agree we should be in the beginning stages of a shift with inflation/interest rates on the rise but as long as inventory is so low and demand continues to outstrip supply it's hard to imagine a correction. We are at historic low levels of inventory here still, less that a couple months supply. National correction in some places inevitable, will be interesting to see what happens here since we've done so well economically and continue to grow. Lot's of people still moving in from out of state as well. Buyers should get some relief as rates & prices continue to rise but it hasn't happened yet. Rates are up ~ 1.25-1.5 % off their lows already but it's still the same story. I'm not selling anything (unless it's brand new or off market) still that's not a multiple offer (have been in 5 multiple offers- all different clients looking for different things) just in the last week and it's only February still and as hot as ever.

I've written 35 offers for 6 clients since Jan 1 and haven't landed a single one yet. Stupid money everywhere.

[Pete]

^

Holy cow.

In my neighborhood, there have been a bunch of flips that were marginal homes with marginal renovations and they've been selling between $160 and $170 / SF.

The last one didn't even have a garage (or a converted garage).

[OKCRealtor]

I've written 35 offers for 6 clients since Jan 1 and haven't landed a single one yet. Stupid money everywhere.

Wow, that is insane. Rarely do I get past 5-6 offers with someone before we land one. My experience is that at that point it's on them as they're not willing to play by the market rules or just not well qualified enough to win and will have to wait. I don't know how reluctant you are to cut a client loose but sometimes it's 100% a necessary evil. A few bad clients can really screw up the good ones when they come along. I was pretty fortunate that I got 3 out of the 5 accepted since last week.

[OKC Guy]

We actually just looked at OKC metro inventory this week and compared y/y back to 2017. Inventory in OKC is less than it was at this time last year and actually every year we looked back to. I would agree we should be in the beginning stages of a shift with inflation/interest rates on the rise but as long as inventory is so low and demand continues to outstrip supply it's hard to imagine a correction. We are at historic low levels of inventory here still, less that a couple months supply. National correction in some places inevitable, will be interesting to see what happens here since we've done so well economically and continue to grow. Lot's of people still moving in from out of state as well. Buyers should get some relief as rates & prices continue to rise but it hasn't happened yet. Rates are up ~ 1.25-1.5 % off their lows already but it's still the same story. I'm not selling anything (unless it's brand new or off market) still that's not a multiple offer (have been in 5 multiple offers- all different clients looking for different things) just in the last week and it's only February still and as hot as ever.

Good info. I think in time even here it catches up based on price increases and inflationary headwinds. If people are moving from higher cost areas and sold house at old city (at a very high price in comparison to our prices) they would be able to afford. But how will local buyers with less income afford the much higher prices. We did weather the last downturn well but prices weren’t spiked as much as now.

Here’s another chart over time, again its national amd not always reflective of OKC metro. Blue is medium price and orange is supply of houses. Chart is from 2000-current:

[OKCRealtor]

Good info. I think in time even here it catches up based on price increases and inflationary headwinds. If people are moving from higher cost areas and sold house at old city (at a very high price in comparison to our prices) they would be able to afford. But how will local buyers with less income afford the much higher prices. We did weather the last downturn well but prices weren’t spiked as much as now.

Here’s another chart over time, again its national amd not always reflective of OKC metro. Blue is medium price and orange is supply of houses. Chart is from 2000-current:

I agree that things will level off once interest rates along with ongoing price increases force people out of the market. Unfortunately for a lot of locals I think they either have to stay put in their current home instead of moving up or are forced to be long term renters. We still have one of the lowest national housing prices so really only one way to go IMO with a growing city and economy. My guess is on a more normalized growth rate, 3-4%, rather than a correction. I just don't see it happening here. Keep in mind also there is a much, much larger % of cash buyers and investors in the market. Not all of whom are necessarily local. Without looking I'm guessing I did 20-25 deals last year straight cash. I'd say roughly 30% of buyers are all cash now- pre pandemic I'd say that might have been 10% if I had to guess. Most of the others were pretty well qualified buyers who had a lot of cash to work with in order to win in aggressive situations. The days of first time buyers/FHA/VA loans getting into a home with little to no cash have been virtually non existent unless it's a brand new build.

We live in such a crazy world with so much uncertainty now that it's almost hard to put much stock into any historical data IMO. Our average price is about 1/2 the national average based on that chart and our inventory is about 1/3 national average and that's going to take some time to balance out. It can't stay like this forever but I think we just return to more of a balanced market and buyers get a touch of relief when things do settle. We'll see. Truth is none of us know or can time the market or we'd all be so rich we wouldn't be posting about it in here.

[Relentless85]

Looks like Lennar homes is trying to build in Canadian county also. SW 15th and County line Road.

[ChrisHayes]

Looks like Lennar homes is trying to build in Canadian county also. SW 15th and County line Road.

Any way we can see an enlarged version of those? I'd like to try and count up the number of houses they would like to build there.

[DowntownMan]

507 lots

[ChrisHayes]

507 lots

That's crazy. That's just like the planned addition by Overholser with over 500 lots, and then the one just to the north probably has over 300.

[EBAH]

This is trash and I really wish the city was just barely progressive enough to just reject property development from companies like this. Cool ... headline of this thread may as well be "garbage tract housing manufacturer to build hundreds of cookie cutter cracker boxes on the far northern sprawl zone near Edmond schools" lol gross

[Bill Robertson]

Just thinking (typing) out loud. If my wife and I didn't love our house so much. And if an addition of smallish houses on smallish lots were quality, well built houses. We would be all over one. Simplicity is the key word we look for in life at this point. And a lot of our people we're around feel the same.

[EBAH]

Just thinking (typing) out loud. If my wife and I didn't love our house so much. And if an addition of smallish houses on smallish lots were quality, well built houses. We would be all over one. Simplicity is the key word we look for in life at this point. And a lot of our people we're around feel the same.

Oh no, small is fine, it's not about small, it's about prefab housing made of cheap materials that will not age well being built in high density for no other purpose than profit in far flung sprawl zones. It's just crappy non innovative development that you see carpeting the far flung exoburbs outside of a ton of huge cities, when the type of people that want these (people that only buy new, low $/SF houses) find a new focus, these will just be turning in to another dilapidated sketchy neighborhood,OKC is already surrounded by the husks of middle class white flight-ers once they've decide a new place is better. If this development was infill I might think it was clever, but both of these filings are for way way way way out parts of okc that honestly we shouldn't be encouraging, paying for, continuing to develop and this is putting HUNDREDS of lots out there. hard pass. What is the point of buying density if it's empty fields on all sides of you?!?! If they can view grazing cattle from their window (with rare exceptions) they don't live in a city and I'm tired of paying for their road maintenance.

[DowntownMan]

Just thinking (typing) out loud. If my wife and I didn't love our house so much. And if an addition of smallish houses on smallish lots were quality, well built houses. We would be all over one. Simplicity is the key word we look for in life at this point. And a lot of our people we're around feel the same.

McCaleb homes in edmond has been doing houses like that. Quality Smaller homes, smaller lots. No yard maintenance required as they handle the little lots as part of an annual HOA fee that isn’t too high either.

[onthestrip]

This is trash and I really wish the city was just barely progressive enough to just reject property development from companies like this. Cool ... headline of this thread may as well be "garbage tract housing manufacturer to build hundreds of cookie cutter cracker boxes on the far northern sprawl zone near Edmond schools" lol gross

And then in the same breath you probably ask why housing is so expensive. All types of housing are welcome, wanted and needed in all growing metros right now. Build baby build!

[Roger S]

Good luck getting garage doors.

If I were a builder theses days. I'd just turn the garages into a storage room, since that's what most people use their garages for anyway, and crank'em out.

[Shuffinator]

@pete Can you possibly find the details on the development going in on the north east corner of 122nd and Morgan? Seems that Lennar owns that land as well and there are earth movers working as we speak.

[Pete]

@pete Can you possibly find the details on the development going in on the north east corner of 122nd and Morgan? Seems that Lennar owns that land as well and there are earth movers working as we speak.

Yes, will be a Lennar single-home development.