May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

[kukblue1]

Glad to see the local people not going crazy about Saturday. The Cap is strong very strong. Watch it break and all heck breaks loose after 2 days of no hype.

[Ohwiseone]

Glad to see the local people not going crazy about Saturday. The Cap is strong very strong. Watch it break and all heck breaks loose after 2 days of no hype.

Yeah I saw them start to back off this weekend, they have moved on to sounding the alarms for next weekend however. (Well one is).

[kukblue1]

Yeah I saw them start to back off this weekend, they have moved on to sounding the alarms for next weekend however. (Well one is).

I know how could they even start talking about next weekend. That is like 10-11 days away. It's so stupid. Now grant it the computer models do look really good but It's 10 days away so much is going to change don't even mention it at this point cause it's pointless.

[SEMIweather]

Would be stunned if the cap broke here on Saturday. Will probably be a nice event somewhere in Kansas closer to the low + warm front.

[C_M_25]

FYI - Pattern around the middle of the month not looking nearly as favorable for severe weather as it did when I created this thread.

Still think we should have decent rain chances at least a few days next week, and given that it's May probably some lower-impact severe threats as well.

I noticed that too. GFS is not showing a nice strong trough in the jet stream. It almost looks like it’s just kinda lazily meandering about. Also, moisture doesn’t really come up much either. Maybe these trends will change a bit.

[C_M_25]

So news 9 likes to tout their million watt radar that they installed shortly after the Moore/ Yukon tornadoes, and we haven’t had a major sever weather outbreak like that since. I wonder if they consider that a good investment at this point? Wonder if they would do it again if they could?

[Celebrator]

I noticed that too. GFS is not showing a nice strong trough in the jet stream. It almost looks like it’s just kinda lazily meandering about. Also, moisture doesn’t really come up much either. Maybe these trends will change a bit.

This is all good news. Wouldn't it be nice to have another nice and quiet May with all that's gone on? I am grateful to hear of a quieter pattern.

[C_M_25]

This is all good news. Wouldn't it be nice to have another nice and quiet May with all that's gone on? I am grateful to hear of a quieter pattern.

It depends on how you look at it. The cons of severe weather are obvious, but that severe weather brings about much needed moisture before heading into the summer. Do I want severe storms? No. But. I would like to see a more active pattern set up here at some point as we’re going to need the rain moving into summer.

[Celebrator]

It depends on how you look at it. The cons of severe weather are obvious, but that severe weather brings about much needed moisture before heading into the summer. Do I want severe storms? No. But. I would like to see a more active pattern set up here at some point as we’re going to need the rain moving into summer.

Amen to that--bring the rain without the severity. Looks like we are set to get a pretty solid and cool rain beginning of next week--that's great news. We better get it now, because we all know what happens in late July--the spigot turns off for a while.

[C_M_25]

Anybody else getting tired of these cold fronts?? This weather blows!

[SEMIweather]

Unseasonably cool weather with occasional rounds of showers/embedded non-severe thunderstorms will be the rule through Wednesday. Thereafter, we will warm up and enter a summerlike NW flow pattern which is typically favorable for MCS development over Colorado during the day and then moving SE into Oklahoma during the evening hours. Still not seeing much that would suggest any higher-end severe weather events between now and the end of next weekend. Will update if that changes.

[TheTravellers]

Anybody else getting tired of these cold fronts?? This weather blows!

Blew our electricity out. So, so, so, so tired of OG&E......

[Anonymous.]

Tomorrow will be cool and rainy for majority of the state. Then this storm system moves out. Should see beautiful weather for the back-half of the week.

[Bits_Of_Real_Panther]

Looks like a good soaking today

[kukblue1]

Storm season might pick up a little starting this weekend and some of next week also. We stay in a Southernly Flow. Dewpoints stay in the 60s for the most part. I mean it's kind of to be expected it is May. However no more of these strong cold fronts for a while.

[soonerguru]

I had a dream that I was watching Damon Lane and he was explaining how unusual it is to get a snowstorm the first week of June.

[kukblue1]

AND THIER OFF. Seriously how do you start putting out Risk maps for next Tuesday when it's only Tuesday today. THAT IS A WEEK AWAY. I truly don't understand.

[SEMIweather]

Definitely going to be heading into a convectively active pattern starting on Friday Night. I'm sure there will probably be one or two higher end days whenever the main trough ejects out of the Desert Southwest, but no agreement amongst the models thus in terms of when that might be (which is to be expected, as it's probably at least a week away).

[damonsmuz]

Putting a risk map 7 days out isn't such a bad thing. Considering SPC has the option of putting a risk map 8 days out

[kukblue1]

Putting a risk map 7 days out isn't such a bad thing. Considering SPC has the option of putting a risk map 8 days out

True but that is a much bigger area and more chance. Not down to a state level and down to a county level at least when it's more than 4 days out. They will use terms like the Southern Plains or upper Midwest. They also won't do even go slight until the models agree and they are pretty certain. Hence why they didn't put anything out for this weekend yet.

[kukblue1]

Replying to SEMIweather. Agree there is going to be an uptick. It's only Tuesday but I'm slightly impressed with Sunday. More so than next Tuesday as of now but it will all change lets talk Friday evening and revisit.

[damonsmuz]

CIPS Severe Analogs really highlights Central Oklahoma for next week. This would be the highest tornado risk we have seen this year. (Which isn't saying much since it's been quiet). But, a 10% TOR ring is certainly nothing to scoff at. This is just now getting sampled by CIPS but will likely see a mention by SPC in the Days 4-8 outlook tomorrow.

[kukblue1]

CIPS Severe Analogs really highlights Central Oklahoma for next week. This would be the highest tornado risk we have seen this year. (Which isn't saying much since it's been quiet). But, a 10% TOR ring is certainly nothing to scoff at. This is just now getting sampled by CIPS but will likely see a mention by SPC in the Days 4-8 outlook tomorrow.

Let's revisit on Friday evening for start of next week. A week is way too early. General term like a chance and Southern Plains ok cool but that map is going to change every model run for the next 5 days so i'm not even going to pay attention to it. Need to get thru the weekend first.

[Anonymous.]

Definitely looking like an active pattern is coming. Which is great news for moisture. It looks like we could see a flooding threat building across parts of OK by end of next week.

[LakeEffect]

Let's revisit on Friday evening for start of next week. A week is way too early. General term like a chance and Southern Plains ok cool but that map is going to change every model run for the next 5 days so i'm not even going to pay attention to it. Need to get thru the weekend first.

Do you know who you're debating on this...?