February 2021 - General Weather Discussion

[OKCisOK4me]

I like how W a s h i t a County gets the astrixs all the time, lol.

[Outhunder]

Yep. Family from wa****a county. Lol. Anyway, looking like record cold.

[Pete]

If there are homeless people not in a shelter, I don't know how they will survive this next week.

I was outside just briefly today and was completely overwhelmed by the cold. And it's going to get worse.

[sooner333]

NWS suggests 60% chance of snow overnight Sunday into Monday morning, but isn’t saying how much yet. I have a relative planning to come into town this weekend but leaving Monday. Will it be enough to cause trouble getting out?

[Anonymous.]

Here are some GFS totals. This is including a weak storm coming through Saturday night, and then the heavier stuff Monday morning.

This is very far out, so this will change a lot. Also showing another round coming in around Wednesday.

[BoulderSooner]

Here are some GFS totals. This is including a weak storm coming through Saturday night, and then the heavier stuff Monday morning.

This is very far out, so this will change a lot. Also showing another round coming in around Wednesday.

with as cold as it is (and will be) is there a chance we get something much close to 20-1 ratio ??

[Bunty]

Thought this was interesting... (Insert warnings about looking too hard at one model run)

"GFS ensembles showing an impressive #snow signal in the Deep South right down to the Gulf of Mexico but especially for Oklahoma, the Carolinas & Virginia for next week. A #snowstorm in the Northeastern US is a nor'easter but in the Southeastern US is it a sou'easter?"

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1...479051776?s=20

The cold front is finally making good progress into Texas and Arkansas, but much of the rest of the south stays warm, since the front has been amazingly close to stationery this week. No wonder. The jet stream is blowing east rather than south or southeast over the upper south.

[Anonymous.]

with as cold as it is (and will be) is there a chance we get something much close to 20-1 ratio ??

Yes, that is possible. We could have the storm flair out across TX as it tracks east and it will create a large snow plume over OK. This would occur in temperatures near 0F, which would basically be a northern plains type of snow and essentially a high accumulation blizzard.

This would also likely result in my conditional situation I mentioned earlier this week. In which a solid snowpack and clear skies would result in OKC getting to a new all-time record low temperature.

[C_M_25]

Have you guys seen the maps from Damon lane. He’s showing okc could get 15+ inches of snow by Monday evening. Is he being a drama queen again? None of the models I have seen are showing that much snow.

[PoliSciGuy]

I think the nature of the snow - being light and dry - makes it more prone to higher accumulations, but yeah 15 inches is extreme. Most model runs I'm seeing show around 8-10 inches over the two waves, which itself would be pretty paralyzing for a bit.

[SomeGuy]

Today would be the perfect day to go on a week's vacation to Florida.

[Anonymous.]

Here is a snapshot of GFS sometime Sunday night. This is likely the model that local met is using with his 15" snow map. This is heavy snow, 10-15mph winds, and temperatures 5 below zero.

Note that this would be a historic storm for the southern plains. Generational.

[jn1780]

Today would be the perfect day to go on a week's vacation to Florida.

Two weeks to be on the safe side

[Bunty]

Have you guys seen the maps from Damon lane. He’s showing okc could get 15+ inches of snow by Monday evening. Is he being a drama queen again? None of the models I have seen are showing that much snow.

Mike Morgan said 14 in. plus a low as low as -15. The other weathermen are not calling it near that low, but still below zero.

[Dustin]

Mike Morgan is freaking out. I expect there to be no milk and bread to be found in the OKC metro by Friday. Get your shopping done now...lol

[Bunty]

10 years ago it was one of the coldest nights of the 21st century in much of central and northern Oklahoma. It got down to 5 below in Oklahoma City. In Nowata an all time low record for the state was set with -31. But that bitter cold spell was short lived with below freezing temps lasting for only 2 or 3 days. How the weather service summarizes that time:

"A deep snow pack, combined with clear skies and light surface winds produced very cold temperatures. Keeping with the theme of extremes during winter of 2010-2011, the low temperatures on the 10th were nothing short of frigid, and numerous sites set record low temperatures, including the all-time record low temperature for Oklahoma! By 10 pm on the 9th, some locations over northern Oklahoma were below -10 degrees. And by 7:30 am on the 10th, a wide area of -10 to -15 degrees was reported over the northern third of Oklahoma. A few of those sites were even below -20 degrees. Nowata broke the all-time low record for Oklahoma, falling to -31 degrees. The 2nd lowest were Pryor and Bartlesville ASOS site, also in northeastern Oklahoma, which both fell to -28 degrees. Oklahoma City also fell below zero, reaching -5 degrees around 7:00 am. This broke the previous record of 4 degrees reached in 1929. Wichita Falls, TX reached their record low temperature, although they remained slightly above zero. The temperature of 3 degrees broke the previous record of 5 degrees set in 1980."
FROM: https://www.weather.gov/oun/events-2...207%3A00%20am.

[mugofbeer]

Geeze! I feel like it's downright balmy here in Denver!

[crimsoncrazy]

I think the nature of the snow - being light and dry - makes it more prone to higher accumulations, but yeah 15 inches is extreme. Most model runs I'm seeing show around 8-10 inches over the two waves, which itself would be pretty paralyzing for a bit.

You have to at least double totals on the models because of how cold it's going to be.

[jn1780]

You have to at least double totals on the models because of how cold it's going to be.

I think the models are already factoring that in?

[BoulderSooner]

I think the models are already factoring that in?

the posted GFS is post #30 uses a 1-10 liquid ratio

with it this cold it will be closer to 1-15 or 1-20

[Bellaboo]

Geeze! I feel like it's downright balmy here in Denver!

According to my weather app, it's supposed to be - 6 degrees in Denver Sunday. Let us know how balmy that feels.

[Anonymous.]

Winter Storm Watch is out for all of Norman office viewing area.

Beginning Saturday night thru Monday afternoon.

[Bits_Of_Real_Panther]

When will this stuff melt, end of next week?

[Bunty]

Mike Morgan is freaking out. I expect there to be no milk and bread to be found in the OKC metro by Friday. Get your shopping done now...lol

Morgan is hyping it up even more. For now, the lowest low will not be -15. Instead, it will be an all time record tying -17. But the National Weather Service says it will -6.

[BB37]

First time I’ve ever seen the Mesonet declare a statewide Level 1 on the Defconmeter.