General Weather Discussion - February and March 2018

[jn1780]

Burn ban has been declared.

[Anonymous.]

Models have began shifting the rain corridor further north the last few runs. Let's hope it holds true because that would be a fantastic drink across the middle of the state:

[tyeomans]

Does any of the models say anything about freezing rain or ice?

[Roger S]

The one weekend I don’t want it to rain and we get our best chance in months.

Been up since 4:30 cooking brisket for 175 people and hoping I can get it all done before the rain gets here... No one wash your cars or do any rain dances today until I finish this cook... THEN LET IT POUR!!!!!

[Bill Robertson]

Does any of the models say anything about freezing rain or ice?

Everything is rain. Nothing frozen.

[Anonymous.]

Does any of the models say anything about freezing rain or ice?

No, it will be too warm. Temperatures will hover around 38-42F during rainfall.

[Bellaboo]

The one weekend I don’t want it to rain and we get our best chance in months.

Been up since 4:30 cooking brisket for 175 people and hoping I can get it all done before the rain gets here... No one wash your cars or do any rain dances today until I finish this cook... THEN LET IT POUR!!!!!

My understanding is it won't start until around midnight. Hope you make it.

[Roger S]

My understanding is it won't start until around midnight. Hope you make it.

That’s what I’ve heard too.... Right now I’m guessing I finish around 2:00 am. Good thing my boots are water proof! haha

[Anonymous.]

This week will be interesting weather-wise. We could have flooding rainfall in eastern parts of the state with potential for winter precipitation further west.

[Anonymous.]

Mild today with strong southerly winds wreaking havoc on everything.

Today: Rain and storms will develop across NW TX this afternoon and fly to the north and east. Impacts from this in OKC will likely be after dark. Marginal chance a storm could be severe, nothing organized.

Tuesday: Rain in the morning from previous night. Drying out as the day goes on, cold air comes pooling down from NW OK as we head through the night.

Wednesday: Starkly colder with temperatures right around freezing to start the day, highs may get near 36F - but then the precipitation moves in from the south. Depending on temperatures, this could begin ice accumulation on elevated surfaces as we head into the evening. Remember, a few degrees changes everything. If it is closer to 28 near the surface, ice could be significant on elevated surfaces. Same for if it is closer to 32, ice will be very short-lived. This could vary drastically depending on localized areas of colder air.

Thursday: There will be a break in the first half of day from precip. With main storm system ejecting overhead, warm air from south should erode most of the colder surface air over C OK. Models are still unsure of just how much. More cold rain comes up from the SW and impacts nearly the entire state.


This scenario laid above leaves western and northwestern parts of the state in the colder air for the longest period of time, where there could be a more dramatic impact from ice accumulations.

[Anonymous.]

Models are underestimating the cold air push so far. OKC metro may get passed by the boundary briefly this afternoon before it retreats back to the northwest overnight.

Check out the forecasted gradient, uppers 40s in the N metro with low 70s in the S metro.

[Anonymous.]

This forum is not loading for me very well right now. But winter weather advisory expanded south through all of OKC metro as temperatures fall near 32 with rain still moving overhead.

[turnpup]

Watched (and felt) it go from nearly 70 degrees just after 6:00 this morning to the 30s within half an hour. Then a thunderstorm in the next half hour. Thankful for the rain, but hope we don't get too much ice.

[Anonymous.]

Ice accumulations this morning will be on elevated objects. We should see precipitation ending in a couple hours and temperatures will continue to fall throughout the day.

[d-usa]

Hoping for a good soaking, but the temp really did just drop quite suddenly.

[LocoAko]

Got some small hail with the thunderstorms this morning. Now sitting at 32F and rain. NAM suggests another round of (more definitively) freezing rain tomorrow afternoon and evening.

[Pete]

Received almost an inch of rain here near Penn Square.

[Anonymous.]

As of Tuesday 11am - Most of OKC is now 28F. Majority air column is currently freezing or below, so sleet will be main impact until late overnight when temperatures begin increasing heading into Wednesday morning.

Tuesday night into Wednesday: Warm air will begin riding north over the top of the cold air and create a corridor of shallow air that is freezing or below. Wherever this area sets up, localized icing will occur Wednesday afternoon and evening as the main low ejects out of Texas.

Models are trying to decide placement of this corridor and the intensity of the precipitation expected for Wednesday. NAM has been pretty spot-on so far for this storm, and is suggesting an initial wave of heavy sleet over C OK during the day and then spotty freezing drizzle and showers of freezing rain developing over C OK and into N OK until the early morning hours of Thursday where temperatures should be right near 32F.

I will update as the new models runs come in this afternoon and evening.

[Bunty]

Received almost an inch of rain here near Penn Square.

My rain and wind gauge froze up at .58". Streets slushy.

[Anonymous.]

We could see a few counties upgraded to Ice Storm Warning just south of OKC. Think Comanche, Stephens, Grady, McClain, Cleveland, Garvin, possibly Oklahoma.


Short-Range models are redeveloping precipitation over SW and C OK coming off of the storms in NW TX.

[corwin1968]

OKCPS is releasing high school students 30 minutes early today and most districts have cancelled after school and evening activities. Their statement makes it sound like they are already contemplating a possible closure tomorrow.

I wasn't expecting this today.

[LocoAko]

OU is now closed as well. Another batch of freezing rain moving in.

[OkieHornet]

I wasn't expecting this today.

I'm not sure anyone was, including the meteorologists!

[Anonymous.]

The development zone has just not progressed eastward like forecast to. We see another development pop happening as I type this down towards Lawton.

An area of growing concern is a general triangle from about Lawton to Moore to near Sulphur.

[d-usa]

New Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow 6am through midnight.

This thing really did come out of nowhere, just spend the last 15 minutes salting my driveway and sidewalks. I'm just going to guess that schools will be canceled for tomorrow.